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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Since the 2010 draft heavily favors pitching, it’s time for an all-pitching version of the Dandy Dozen with the draft just over two weeks away.

SP

One area the 2010 is loaded is pitching, and the more the spring progresses the more it seems apparent the high school class in particular looks to be very strong. Sanchez is no secret in this class as an Aflac All-American last summer that continues to get better and put his name in the conversation for the first round of this year’s draft. He has an easy delivery with long arms and legs that gives him plenty of projection for better things to come. He works consistently in the low-90s and touches the mid-90s frequently. It is expected that as he fills out his body that bigger and better radar gun readings will follow. His best pitch at this point in time may be his curveball, a pitch that he shows very good feel for, with both excellent break and command. The foundation is there for a good changeup, although needs more experience throwing it to make it a better, more consistent offering. A member of the talented Southern Californian class, he is an Oregon recruit that could be taken within the top 15-20 overall selections.

SP

Wojciechowski was quietly impressive that summer for Team USA showing one of the stronger arms on a star-studded team that included some of the best pitchers available for both this year’s and next year’s draft. He has a big, strong build that allows him to maintain his velocity deep into ballgames, where he is expected to be able to handle the rigors of taking the ball every fifth day. His fastball-slider, one-two combo has always been good to very good, as he throws his fastball consistently in the 92-94 range and can dial back for a few more ticks when he needs to. His slider is wicked, and nearly unhittable when its at its best. His control continues to be the biggest area of concern about his game, although he has been significantly better this year. He has always had a knack for missing bats with his power arsenal, and his aggressive approach to pitching matches his stuff. He is now a legitimate first-round candidate expected to go in the lower-third of the first round.

SP

Frazier made a statement early in the season by tossing a no-hitter while striking out 18 in front of a healthy contingent of scouts. His size stands out, and he continues to grow and fill into his frame and his fastball velocity continues to increase as well. He should continue to add strength over the next few years, and the bigger he gets, the harder he could consistently throw his fastball. He throws in the low-90s, and can touch 95. At this point in time he shows more feel for his changeup than his curveball, although both flash very good potential. The biggest thing he struggles with at this point in time is his mechanics and his release point. As projectable and promising as his future is, he is raw and has a lot of work to do. Should he sign this summer he likely will be brought along slowly. If he doesn’t sign out of high school he will continue his progress at Pepperdine.

SP

The progression of junior lefty Rob Rasmussen has anchored the UCLA weekend rotation this year, giving the Bruins one of the best staffs opposing teams have to deal with along with hard-throwing sophomore righties Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer. He was more sharp during his two summers on the Cape than he was during his freshman and sophomore years, and it appears that his summer success has finally carried over to the spring. While his walk totals sometimes creep up, he is always around the zone, as he doesn’t like to give up anything too meaty down the pipe when he’s behind in the count. Most impressive is his natural ability to upset hitters’ timing. He really changes speeds and moves his ball around well to keep batters guessing as to what pitch is coming next, but despite his size, he’s far from a finesse pitcher. He has been clocked as high as 94, and works in the 89-91 range. His fastball has some dip to it, making it that much harder to hit. He also throws a good overhand curveball, a slider and a nice, fading changeup. He does a good job throwing his entire repertoire with the same arm action and speed as his fastball, making the pitches that much harder to identify.

SP

Don’t be surprised to see Jenkins’ name called in the first round of this year’s draft by a team that just wants to make sure this talented overall athlete doesn’t pursue a promising two-sport career at Baylor as one of the nation’s more exciting quarterback recruits. He may be the best athlete available for this year’s draft, and would also be considered a top positional prospect as a legitimate five-tool outfielder. His athleticism gives him incredible projectability, meaning the sky is the limit for this young man. He pumps his fastball seemingly effortlessly in the low-90s with an electric arm. He frequently touches higher that than, and is expected to throw harder, more consistently as his body continues to mature. His curveball is also an electric pitch, a true hammer that he can drop into the strike zone or spike into the dirt. He also throws a slider, and is working to develop his changeup.

SP

Wood is a big-bodied right-handed pitcher that was a talented prospect coming out of high school. He participated at the 2007 Perfect Game National Showcase, but wasn’t drafted until the 36th round of the ’08 draft by the Astros. That caused him to attend Florida State, where he made nine appearances, five of those being starts, his freshman year. He decided to transfer to juco powerhouse St. Petersburg College for his sophomore year of eligibility, and his prospect status has soared with increased radar gun readings. He’s a very hard thrower, with the ability to touch 96-97 and can sit in the 92-94 range. He also throws a slurvy slider that can be equally tough to hit as his heat. There is some effort to his delivery, and he struggles with control, so his future may lie in short relief where he wouldn’t have to worry about pacing himself while lighting up radar guns. He has committed to play for USC for next season if he falls past the early rounds of the draft.

SP

After a strong freshman year that put Loux in the early conversation as a potential first-round pick for this June’s draft, he regressed during his sophomore year, when he really struggled with his command. He has had some difficulty controlling anything past his fastball at times, although is doing a much better job mixing things up this spring. Even if his secondary stuff were to continue to fail him, he is going to get as many chances to succeed as he needs with his size and natural arm strength. He throws 92-94 consistently, and can maintain that velocity deep into ballgames, with the ability to touch a few ticks higher than that if he need to. He also throws a curveball and changeup, and while both pitches have shown improvement, he needs to continue to hone them if he expects to remain in a starting role at the next level. With his size he projects as a workhorse, and has been among the national leaders in strikeouts all spring.

RP

Klein is having a great year for UCLA serving as the team’s closer. He has a very good, athletic build, and a very promising three-pitch repertoire, but doesn’t have the look or the nasty stuff that typically epitomizes a closer. I’m guessing Klein would be starting if it weren’t for Bruin’s impressive overall pitching staff. He shows very good fastball command, sitting in the low-90s with the ability to touch the mid-90s. Overall he has a very polished repertoire, as he can throw both a four and two-seam fastball, a curveball and a changeup. He has been throwing a nice, fading change this year, doing so with the exact same arm action and speed as his fastball, making it a very tough pitch to identify out of the hand. And after he draws hitters in with his fastball and changeup, he’ll snap off a hard breaking curve to put them away. He was a talented athlete coming out of high school, recruited by some teams to play quarterback, but pursued UCLA to stick with baseball. He missed all of last year and significant time in 2008 due to arm injuries, although that has kept the overall mileage on his arm down.

SP

Murphy continues to throw harder and get better, and could become the first prep lefty taken off of the board in this year’s draft. He sits consistently in the 88-91 range, and has been clocked 93-94 this spring with expectations that he will continue to add a few more ticks to his heater. He also throws a refined changeup at this point in his career, and when his curveball is working for him he has threw good to very good pitches that he can throw for strikes. He throws over the top, and there is some effort to his delivery with a noticeable head snap, so there are some parts of his delivery that could stand to be cleaned up. He is part of a very promising recruiting class for the University of San Diego, and follows a long line of talented SoCal prep lefties that includes Tyler Matzek, Mike Montgomery and Cole Hamels.

SP

Roach was a talented pitcher coming out of high school in the Las Vegas area that spent his first year in college at Arizona. Things didn’t go quite as well as he, or the Wildcats, had hoped for, and he decided to return close to home for the College of Southern Nevada. It was a wise move for Roach, knowing that he would be tossing many to most of his games to the slugging phenom Bryce Harper. Roach has an athletic, strong compact build, and while he isn’t overly projectable, he already has good, present-day stuff and solid command. His fastball sits in the 92-93 range and has been clocked as high as 96-97. He routinely hits 94-96 in the games that he pitches, and has been throwing harder as the spring season has warmed up. He can also throw a good, hard curveball that is typically thrown in the 74-77 range, but his best pitch may be a split-fingered fastball that has violent late break to it. He has also tinkered with a cut-fastball, looking for another good offspeed offering to complement his repertoire.

SP

Smyly has a nice, projectable frame with long arms and legs. Despite having a flat chest and overall looks somewhat ordinary, he has strong, muscular forearms, and has plenty of room for added strength. He has a long-armed delivery and lands a little upright. He may throw across his body a little, but overall his arm action works cleanly. There is deception out of his hand which makes him that much harder to hit, and rarely seems to be hit hard. While his fastball can sit in the upper-80s to low-90s, and can touch 92-93 on a good day, he gets most of his outs by changing speeds. He throws a lot of changeups and cutters, and also mixes in a slow, sweeping curveball that doesn’t have much bite to it but is thrown 8-10 miles per hour slower that his offspeed stuff. He also has a very good, natural pickoff move and is tough to run against.

SP

Lee is one of the more fascinating prospects available for this year’s draft. He could evolve into one of the best pitchers, if not the best, to come out this year, in a year deep in arms. However he is a very talented quarterback recruit that has made it very clear that he intends to honor his football commitment to LSU. That alone tells you about his athleticism, and he has posted incredible numbers in the crazed high school football state of Texas. On the mound, he has been throwing in the mid-90s this year, with a loose and electric arm that allows him maintain his velocity and leads many to believe he is just starting to scratch the surface on his baseball potential. He also can throw a wicked slider. It doesn’t seem likely that Lee would sign, no matter how high he were selected, but crazier things have happened.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

more

Dandy Dozen Archives

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