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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Workman has looked better during his two summers spent on the Cape than he has during his freshman and sophomore years at Texas. He has appeared in each of the last two Cape all-star games, ranking among the league’s top prospects as well, leading the league in strikeouts (67) in 55 innings of work in 2008. He also is part of a very talented Longhorns staff that has allowed them to enter the year as the near-unanimous number one national team. While he has bounced between the rotation and the bullpen, his future lies as a starter, with a perfectly proportionate 6-foot-5, high-waisted frame and well-rounded repertoire. His fastball sits in the low 90s and frequently touches 95. He also has a hammer curveball, giving him a great one-two punch with a knack for recording strikeouts. He has a changeup, but doesn’t throw it much given the success of his fastball-curve combo, and his aggressive approach matches his power arsenal. He has a good sense on the mound, and was the one of the highest unsigned picks from the 2007 draft after he was selected in the third round by the Phillies. He figures to go somewhere among the top 10-15 picks this June.

SP

Blair is somewhat of an enigmatic prospect in that he has good size and stuff, and can look downright dominant at times, but can also be frustrating to watch when he loses his focus and command and starts to fall in love with his breaking ball. He does have one of the better breaking pitches in the nation, something that falls in between a slider and a curve that he’s able to add and subtract off of with ease and great feel. I remember being impressed with this pitch, which acts more like a slider now, the first time I saw him, during the 2006 Aflac All-American Classic when he threw more of a true curveball. I also remember thinking he relied on the pitch too much back then, and moved away from his fastball at the first sign of trouble. That is something he still struggles with, as he used his breaking ball to set up his fastball and not the other way around as most would prefer. His fastball is a good pitch when he’s commanding it well, as it can sit in the low-90s, touching 94. He also has a polished changeup giving him a solid repertoire when he’s mixing all three pitches the way he’s capable of. On the mound he looks, acts and feels “California Cool,” and he may be laid back to a fault. He has good size, but his body has the tendency to get soft and will need to continue to make conditioning a priority moving forward.

SP

Grimm was somewhat of an unknown commodity coming out of high school, having missed his junior year after sustaining an elbow injury that required surgery. He proved to be healthy the February prior to the draft after his senior year in high school, but it wasn’t enough time for him to prove himself. So, he took his talents to Georgia, and is now a potential first-round pick for this year’s draft. Because of his injury in high school, his arm is relatively fresh, haven been used somewhat sparingly during his first two years in college (just under 110 innings pitched combined from 2008-09). He has a very good athletic and projectable build at 6-foot-4 with an angular delivery and proportions. His fastball sat in the 88-91 range coming into college, and now he comfortably works 91-93 with the ability to touch 95 when he needs it. His curveball is also a plus pitch when it’s at its best, and he can also throw a refined changeup. His biggest problem so far, similar to Blair as profiled above, is consistency. For Grimm it seems to stem from his mechanics and overall balance on the mound. The sky is the limit when he’s repeating his delivery and spotting his fastball as well as he’s capable of.

UT

Segedin is a sleeper prospect for this year’s coming draft, as he may be one of the best pure hitters available in a year considered light on bats. He missed almost all of last year after sustaining a lower back injury early in the season, and while he has performed both on the mound and at the plate, and may continue to be used in this fashion this year, his future is definitely brighter as a hitter. He was one of the best hitters on the Cape last summer, finishing eighth in the league with a .304 average swinging a wood bat, and was a member of the league champion Bourne team. He has an aggressive approach at the plate and consistently makes hard contact. Most of his power is to the gaps at this point in time, but many expect the doubles he hits to turn into home runs as he continues to mature and gain experience as a hitter, similar to Ryan Zimmerman at a similar stage in his career. While Segedin currently plays third base, the lack of ideal lateral quickness will likely necessitate a move to either across the diamond to first base or to one of the outfield corners, where his arm strength would be an asset. With a big spring, Segedin could sneak into the first round.

C

Brantly’s name soared up follow lists after an impressive performance in the Northwoods League last summer. He led the league in batting (.346) while finishing towards the top of nearly every other notable offensive category while posting an impressive 21 to 11 strikeout to walk ratio. That alone gives you an idea of what kind of hitter he is, as he consistently makes hard contact and shows a very discerning eye at the plate. He has some pop as well, and knows how drive the ball with backspin. His body, conditioning, work ethic and overall character also receive high marks. Defensively a few questions linger. He has showed very good improvement behind the plate with good quickness and the ability to lead a pitching staff. While his arm strength is below average, he makes up for it with good technique and a quick release. A draft-eligible sophomore, Brantly could sneak into the first round with another big campaign at the plate.

1B

Auburn teammates Kevin Patterson and Hunter Morris have a lot of parallels connecting the two, as big, hulking left-handed hitters that hail from the state of Alabama. After a modest freshman campaign, Kevin Patterson went on to perform well on the Cape after his freshman year before Morris joined Team USA. Patterson enjoyed a fine summer on the Cape, hitting .296 with four home runs and 14 extra-base hits, leading to him being named the starting designated hitter for the West squad in the league’s annual all-star event. He regressed during his sophomore season (.231 average, six home runs), as well as during his second stint on the Cape in ’09 (.244 average with four home runs). With a big swing that matches his big body, he needs to find more patience at the plate and recognize which pitches to lay off of and which ones to clobber. Patterson started behind the plate in high school, although he wasn’t expected to last very long as a catcher at the collegiate and even professional levels. He has the size and enough raw power potential to play first base if he’s able to re-discover his productivity, otherwise he may settle in as a left-handed hitting corner infielder/outfielder off of the bench.

2B

When I saw Alvord play at the Aflac All-American Classic he immediately reminded me of Toronto Blue Jays infielder Aaron Hill. Like Hill at a similar stage in his career, Alvord currently plays shortstop, but should settle in at second base at the professional level. He has a compact, stocky/strong build for a middle infielder and makes up for his limited tool-set with an aggresive, hard-working approach to the game. He handles the pivot at second base very well and shows good arm strength. At the plate he has enough bat speed to catch up with good fastballs, and a good enough eye at the plate to know how to wait for one. He has good gap power, some over the fence power, and enough foot speed to hit his fair share of extra-base hits. These types of players always seem to end up in college, and if he doesn’t go in the early rounds he may wind up at Auburn.

SS

Machado put an exclamation point on his high school career leading up to his senior year by being one of the key components, both offensively and defensively, of the Team USA that won the gold medal in the Pan Am games. He finished the summer tied for the team lead in home runs, with prodigious power threat Bryce Harper and toolsy outfielder Brian Ragira, with two. Machado is a rare blend of athleticism that has proven to hit, hit for power, play exceptional defense and run. He has a strong arm, and can make all of the plays from the shortstop position, both routine and spectacular. His bat also has the potential to make a difference at the highest level, with game changing bat speed and enough foot speed to stretch bases. Most of his power is to the gaps, but he will surprise you with his current ability to drive the ball over the fence. Machado has already aligned himself with Scott Boras, so signing him away from the University of Florida may be no easy task.

SS

A premium talent coming out of high school, Hague’s commitment was deemed to be too strong to sway him away from, and he fell to the 37th round of the 2007 draft. Therefore, it wasn’t too big of a surprise that he enjoyed immediate success upon beginning his college career at Rice, hitting .348 with eight home runs and 29 extra-base hits during his freshman year. He added nine more home runs last spring, and tied for the team league in batting with a .371 mark last summer playing third base for Team USA. He has a wiry strong body and is a good overall athlete with good speed and some pop at the plate. His bat speed allows him to hit good pitching, although he does have the propensity to strike out, having whiffed 115 times in his two years at Rice. Defensively he has good range and a strong arm, and for now there isn’t much concern about his ability to stick at shortstop. He has more than enough quickness and arm strength to handle either second or third. He is expected to go somewhere in the 15-25 range of the first round of this year’s draft.

OF

In two seasons at Texas-Arlington, Choice has hit .396, and followed that up by hitting .350 with Team USA last summer, and his three home runs were tied for second best on the team. In playing so well for the nationally prominent team against top-level international talent, he proved that his ability to hit is no fluke, showing good contact skills and considerable power potential with a wood bat. He has a compact, strong body with strong wrists and forearms that give him good bat speed. He can hit good fastballs and his power goes to all fields. Choice does have a lot of room for improvement, as he needs to hone his plate discipline and do a better job managing the strike zone. While he’s a solid athlete across the board, his instincts defensively and his arm strength are average at best, likely limiting him to left field. He does have decent foot speed, meaning he should be able to remain in the outfield while also making him a modest threat on the basepaths. Similar to Rob Segedin as profiled above, the lack of impact bats could allow Choice to be taken higher than where he normally would be, possibly as early as the top 20-30 overall picks.

OF

In watching Clarke, his body type immediately jumps out at you. Built long and lithe with wiry strong limbs, there is plenty of room for him to add strength without losing a step. He has very good speed, giving him the ability to cover plenty of ground in the outfield while also presenting a threat on the basepaths. There is some pop in his swing, with quick hands from both sides of the plate, but he’s at his best from the left side where he gets down the first base line in a hurry. He’s a threat to bunt, although he still needs to be convinced that power will never be a huge part of his game. Most of his power is to the gaps, where he can use his speed to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He is a prototypical leadoff hitting centerfielder that needs to value the importance of working the count and getting on base anyway he can. Clarke is a good student and has committed in-state to Georgia Tech.

OF

Wilson is one of the finest overall athletes available for this year’s draft, and compares favorably to his Aflac All-American teammate and fellow Stanford commit, Brian Ragira out of Arlington, Texas. He has perfect, athletic proportions and is a true five-tool athlete with an exciting blend of power and speed. His long limbs and bat speed gives him very good extension and allows him to drive pitches to all parts of the field. He has graceful actions, and glides to balls in the outfield. While he has the ability to play center, his tool-set may be better suited for right, as he likely will slow down a little as his body matures and he continues to add strength. His arm will be an asset wherever he plays, and may be considered his best overall tool. At this point in time Wilson just needs more experience, as his instincts and strike-zone discipline need the most improvement. As noted above, he is a Stanford commit and a good student, and such players always prove to be difficult to sign.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

more

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