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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

If anyone is going to give Bryce Harper competition to be the first player selected next June, it's most likely going to be Ranaudo or Jameson Taillon, as listed next on this, the first edition of the Dandy Dozen for the 2010 draft-eligible class. Ranaudo is coming off of a sensational sophomore year, where he and co-ace Louis Coleman, the SEC pitcher of the year, carried a loaded overall Tigers team to the national championship. While LSU lost a lot of talent, they will be counting on Ranaudo in particular to help carry some of the extra load as the Friday ace in an attempt to return to Omaha and repeat as champions. Ranaudo was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school, and was the primary reason why LSU's 2007-08 recruiting class was ranked the best in the nation. He has a tall, projectable build, with many feeling that he will be able to reach the mid-90s more consistently while sitting in the 92-94 range as he continues to add strength. He started last year flashing mid-90s heat before ending the season pitching in the 89-91 with decent, late movement on his heater. The 2009 season was by far his longest year, having pitching sparingly his freshman year, and he also didn't much either of the two summers. His slider is also a plus pitch, and he also throws a changeup. He currently is project to go either second or third overall after Harper, although as noted above, he has the talent to challenge Harper for the top spot if he takes another big step forward this coming spring.

SP

I haven't been shy about sharing my praise for Taillon, who I think could very well become the first high school righty selected first overall. Yes, that means even ahead of Bryce Harper, and while part of that does have to do with representation (Boras), most of it has to do with talent. He really made the most of his opportunities last summer in front of hordes of scouts at almost every notable showcase and tournament event, setting down some of the best hitters in the nation with aplomb. He continued that success through to his stint with Team USA, shutting down Cuba and snapping their streak of seven consecutive championships to claim the gold medal in the annual Pan-Am games. He’s fearless in his approach, and confident in his stuff. His fastball has crept towards 100, reaching 97-98 this summer while sitting comfortably in the 94-96 range. He also throws a very nasty hard curveball throw in the low-80s. It makes it more difficult on opposing hitters that he’s so big, a 6’6”, 225 pound horse that throws downhill and offers an intimidating presence. I’m always a little wary of super-tall pitchers, since there always appears to be a lot more moving parts with such players. But Taillon has his body well under control, and uses his entire body to generate the impressive velocity that he does. The biggest knock that I can see with Taillon is the fact that he is so big, so early in his life, with the common label attached to him being that he is already maxed out physically. I don’t really see that as a negative, because I could see him getting big-league batters out right now. There is always room for improvement, but if he stays on course he’s going to be a premium pick next June.

SP

Solis is the latest pitcher to keep an eye on from the University of San Diego, whose upside is greater than that of his teammate's, Kyle Blair (who typically is rated higher on top prospect lists). A lot of that has to do with unfamiliarity and uncertainty, as Solis only made two appearances last spring before he was shut down with lower back problems caused by a bulging disc. The injury occurred when he was lifting weights as part of the program's strength and conditioning program, meaning it had nothing to do with his arm, elbow or shoulder. He has been throwing for several months now, and is poised to have a big year in 2010. He took the summer off as well to make sure he returned strong for the Toreros. Comparisons to former USD star Brian Matusz are going to be made since the two are both taller, projectable yet strong left-handed pitchers with good fastballs. However, he is more similar to fellow 2010 draft-eligible lefty Drew Pomeranz of Ole Miss given their big frames, solid fastball command and velocity yet inconsistent breaking stuff. Solis does throw a pretty good breaking ball when it's working for him, and also mixes in a cutter that he uses as his changeup. His fastball sits in the low-90s, reaching 93 frequently in his starts, but given his size, proportions and work ethic, many expect his velocity to continue to creep up a few more ticks as he fills out his frame. He is a good overall athlete that repeats his delivery well. There is some herki-jerkiness to his delivery, which gives him natural deception against his opposition. He's a dark-horse to go among the top five overall picks next June, and sits atop my list of semi-sleepers.

UT

While I was well aware of Cowart's talents entering the summer, I really walked away impressed after seeing him pitch at last summer's Aflac All-American Classic. His arm speed stands out, as he employs a lightning-quick, whip-like delivery that you see from some of the best power pitchers in the game. He shut down two of the hitters listed in this installment of the Dandy Dozen, Josh Sale and Bryce Harper, in his one inning stint at the Aflac game, as well as another projected first-rounder, Kris Bryant, on a total of 11 pitches. He works quickly and fearlessly, not afraid to challenge hitters with fastballs in the zone. That fastball can reach the mid-90s with some running action to it, and he also throws a slow curve in the low-70s and the as well as a pretty good changeup when it's working for him. In addition to his powerful arm, he also is a very talented switch-hitter that has power from both sides of the plate to all parts of the field. He's the type of hitter of which the ball makes a different sound when it leaves his bat. His power comes from his bat speed, as he has very strong hands and wrists that allows him to turn on the most powerful of fastballs. He also shows a pretty slick glove at the hot corner, where his rocket for an arm is also a valuable asset, and his confidence is evident in the field as it is on the mound and in the batters box. He follows some pretty impressive two-way prep stars in recent years that created similar conversations, such as Ethan Martin, Mychal Givens, David Renfroe and Casey Kelly. Cowart has committed to play for Florida State.

C

The legend of Bryce Harper is growing much like the legend of Stephen Strasburg was growing at this time a year ago. If Harper wasn't already an incredibly intriguing prospect, he slipped out of high school a year early to attend the College of Southern Nevada, making him draft eligible next June. He has already graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, although his baseball prowess was somewhat overblown in that cover story. It is true that he possesses two tools rated a perfect 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale in his arm strenghth and his power at the plate. He is a good overall hitter that makes good adjustments at the plate, and has played on enough national showcase and tournament teams to have handled some of the best pitchers in the nation. His arm strenghth allows him to shut down the opposing running game, and his power is practically unmatched. He's been hitting bombs against advanced competition since he was in middle school, so making the necessary adjustments in juco ball against players two to three years older than him shouldn't be much of a concern. His speed isn't as great as SI made it out to be, although he's a solid average runner, which makes him slightly above average as a catcher. He's the favorite to go first overall in the 2010 draft, and has already aligned himself with Scott Boras.

1B

Morris turned down a significant bonus from the Boston Red Sox as a second round pick in the 2007 draft to honor his commitment to Auburn. He didn't miss a beat upon arriving in college, hitting .351 with 11 bombs on his way to being named the SEC freshman of the year. He followed that up by winning a roster spot with Team USA, although he didn't hit particularly well that summer. He also didn't hit as well during his sophomore year, but still proved to be a natural run producer for the historically strong Tigers offense. If his trends continue, he may be poised for a huge junior year after launching eight home runs on the Cape this past summer on his way to being named one of the circuit's top prospects, and one of the best, if not the best power prospect outside of Bryce Harper, available for the 2010 draft. As good as his bat is, his glove makes him somewhat of a liability in the field. He doesn't have much range, and overall needs to commit himself to defense to avoid becoming a one-dimensional player. His bat is good enough to overcome such problems, and he's a good enough athlete to improve is he makes it a bigger priority.

SS

For the most part, summer baseball has been kind to Christian Colon, who wrapped up a very successful, although bitter sweet, tour with the Team USA collegiate baseball team last August. It was his second consecutive summer representing the National Team (his fourth time overall playing for the Team USA program), and he did so by leading the club in almost every single offensive category over 23 games, playing and starting in every single contest until the last one. He was also a prominent prospect coming out of high school, and he was named the MVP of the 2006 Aflac All-American Classic. Coming out of high school the biggest knock on his solid overall tool-set was average speed, and yet thanks to above-average instincts for nearly every facet of the game, he swiped 24 bases in 26 attempts this summer. Unfortunately his summer ended on a down note, as he suffered a both a broken tibia and fibula in his leg, and is expected to be out for two to three months. Surgery went well to repair the leg, and he should be ready to play by the time the 2010 season opens. A very solid, all-around baseball player, he is hailed for his intangible skills as much as he is for his tools. He was considered the leader on the Titans from the moment he arrived at Fullerton’s campus, and was named Team USA’s captain this past summer. He has the ability to hit for average and power, can swipe a few bags as noted above, and plays the shortstop position fundamentally strong with good hands, footwork and a strong arm.

SS

Wolters is a gamer, a true ballplayer whose size and style of play is reminiscent of Colon, both of whom have an Aflac MVP award on their mantles. Wolters received the Rawlings Gold Glove award for the top defensive player in attendance as part of the Aflac awards ceremony, and overall he is an energetic player whose style of play can rub off on his teammates. While he has a smaller stature, he has surprising pop in his bat with the ability to lace line drives to the gaps with some over the fence power. He will never be a big power threat, but his speed gives him the ability to stretch out plenty of doubles and triples. He has good bat speed and a quick, compact stroke with a knack for squaring up the ball. Again, his size doesn't make him the smoothest defender, but he makes every play he can get to, with solid range, soft hands and a strong arm. His footspeed tranlates well on the basepaths too, making him a candidate to hit towards the top of a batting order. He’s the type of player that any coach would love to have on his club for attributes that extend much farther than his ability on the baseball field.

3B

In a year short on impact bats, Cox, a draft-eligible sophomore, may offer the best, pure swing. He's a natural hitter from the left-side of the plate, who offers easy power and an advanced approach that rarely gets fooled when he's locked in. He started his freshman season at Arkansas slow, before heating up midseason and playing a huge role in the Razorbacks surprise appearance in Omaha last June. He also stars on the mound for Arkansas, as he did in high school, but his value at the next level is greater as a positional prospect. He was one of the best hitters on the Cape this past summer, although he started much hotter than he finished. He was named the MVP for the West team by collecting a pair of hits, including an RBI triple that he smoked over the head of the centerfielder. His physical tools are limited, as he has played shortstop, is made mroe for third base, and eventually may have to move to either first base or left field. His true power potential is also somewhat in question, as he is more of a doubles hitter with respectable home run power. Regardless of his upside, his bat, in a year short on them, could allow him to be drafted higher than he normally may be.

OF

Cunningham is a great looking athlete that looks as though he still has plenty of room to add more strength as he continues to mature. He’s a potential five-tool, switch-hitting outfielder from Jacksonville State that enjoyed an impressive summer on the Cape, leading the league in batting (.378), hits (59), on-base percentage (.458) and finishing second in slugging (.500) and runs scored (31). That means the learning curve switching from a metal to a wood bat won't be as big of an issue. I am most impressed by his patient approach at the plate and his quick swing from both sides. He’s more of a gap hitter than a pure bopper, and doesn’t have blinding speed, but he does have 20-20 potential with the ability to hit 30-40 doubles with his fair share of triples hitting towards the top of a lineup. Overall he profiles in a similar fashion to A.J. Pollock, a mid-first-round pick a year ago, and could be drafted in a similar position next spring if he continues to improve by having a big junior year.

OF

With long, wiry strong limbs, Ragira reminds me of a pair of fellow, former Aflac All-Americans who have gone on to have very good professional careers: Dexter Fowler and Cameron Maybin. Ragira has the sme kind of upside, with an exciting package of tools highlighted by bat speed, foot speed and arm strength. He can dial his fastball easily into the 90s when he’s pitching, but he’s a future centerfielder and could hit anywhere towards the top of a lineup given his power-speed combo. He showed his easy power potential on national TV during his performance at the Aflac All-American Classic last summer by driving an Andrew Cole fastball off of the base of the wall to the right side of the centerfield fence for a booming double. He has committed to Stanford, so he has brains to go along with his brawn, although that immediately creates some signability concerns given how difficult Cardinal recruits have been to sway away from college.

OF

Sale was arguably the best hitting prospect at last summer's Area Code Games, as he continued to show one of the best, most advanced approaches of those eligible for the 2010 draft. He has great strength in his upper body as well as in his hands and wrists which gives him incredible bat speed as a left-handed slugger. He can drive the best fastballs out of the park, and his pitch recognition allows him to drive breaking balls to the opposite field. He is a natural run producer that is a fairly safe bet to hit at the highest level. Finding a true defensive home for him may be another problem, as he definitely is a bat-first type of player in the mold of Raul Ibanez and Pat Burrell. That means he will be relegated to either left field of first base, and may be a good match for an American League ballclub. He has a thick and mature build for a high school senior, meaning it's probable that his defense becomes even more of a glaring issue as he gets older. His bat is good enough to make up for any deficiencies in the field, and he should be drafted early enough for him to forego his commitment to Gonzaga.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

more

Dandy Dozen Archives

• 05-30-10
• 05-20-10
• 04-30-10
• 04-10-10
• 02-28-10
• 01-10-10
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