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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

The draft status and overall prospective value of Tyler Matzek and fellow prep lefty Matthew Purke has been contested back and forth since last summer June, similar to the argument that Rick Porcello and Matt Harvey created at a similar time as they prepared their talents for the 2007 draft. Many prospect publications and journalists seem to think Matzek is the top prep prospect available for 2009, and it is really hard to go too far out of my way to argue against them. Matzek and Purke actually have similar profiles before you see them in person. They're both left-handed pitchers in the 6'3", 180-190 range. Matzek has a little more meat on his bones, or at least isn't as long and wiry strong as Purke is. Matzek is also a talented overall athlete that could draw interest for his bat if he wasn't so talented as a pitcher. He throws in the low-90s while reaching the 93-94 range, and while there isn't much movement to this pitch, you could easily argue that at those readings he doesn't need movement to be successful. While he does throw a very nice slider, he also spins a true, hard-breaking curveball that typically sits in the mid-70s. His changeup gives him a very polished four-pitch repertoire. Matzek's arm angle is a conventional, high three-quarters, and his mechanics are picture perfect. He pitches aggressively and he isn't afraid to come inside on right-handed hitters. Matzek also pitched at the Aflac All-American Classic, the Under Armour game, Tournament of the Stars and the Perfect Game National Showcase last summer. He has committed to play for the University of Oregon, but is expected to be selected among the top 10-13 overall picks.

SP

White was part of a very talented North Carolina draft class coming out of high school in 2006, a class that included a pair of Tar Heel starters that he ended up replacing, Andrew Miller and Daniel Bard. Like Miller and Bard three years before, North Carolina didn't hesitate placing White into a weekend starting role, and he pitched quite well, starting 18 games and tossing nearly 100 innings with an ERA of 4.94. Since his freshman year he has enjoyed a very successful summer on the Cape and a very good sophomore year, in which he went 13-3 with a 2.83 ERA. His 13 wins were tied for tops in the nation, while he finished 10th nationally with 113 strikeouts, and he is having another fine season for the Tar Heels this year. He's a great all-around athlete, as he could have been drafted for his bat as an infielder, and even received interest for his skills as a point guard in basketball. The Dodgers drafted him in the 14th round, but they had no chance to sign him away from UNC. With a prototypical build, and a nice and easy, athletic delivery, White is able to maintain his 91-94 mph fastball deep into games. He has improved the velocity and command on his fastball, a pitch that shows very good, natural late movement. As good as his fastball is, his slider is his best pitch, a wicked breaker that is nearly impossible for right-handed hitters to track when it's working at its best. He also throws a changeup, but hasn't need it too much up until this point in time. He does need to work on honing his control, and his stuff is so good that he often isn't able to control where it goes as well as he would like to. It is an area he has improved, while also learning how to work off of his fastball instead of pitching off of the success of his slider. White is currently ranked among the top two to four draft eligible prospects in the nation, as he and teammate Dustin Ackley are drawing large scouting crowds on a daily basis.

SP

Zack Wheeler did his best last summer to put his name among the best prep right-handers in the nation. He participated at the Perfect Game National and East Coast Pro Showcases as well as the Aflac and Under Armour Games. There are a lot of moving parts to Wheeler's big, slow delivery, with a lot of arms and legs thanks to a tall and lanky 6'4", 180 pound frame. He resembles the Phillies' Ryan Madson quite a bit, and for a more distant comparison, there were aspects of his delivery and stuff that reminded me of Orel Hershiser. Despite his listed size, he does have strength in the lower half, and broad shoulders, meaning he should continue to fill out and add strength as his body matures. He works comfortably in the 90-93 range and can touch 94/95 regularly. His breaking ball, somewhere in between a curve and a slider, is a power pitch that hovers right around 80 mph. I'm a little concerned by his delivery, as there does seem to be some pressure on his arm as part of his delivery, but others don't seem too concerned. Most pitchers that throw like this, such as Ryan Madson or even Scot Shields, seem to be more effective in short relief, but it's far too early to write him off as a starter. He has cemented his status as a first-round pick, and is starting to draw more and more interest from teams drafting among the top 10-15 picks. He has committed to play for Kennesaw State.

UT

I used the word smooth to previously describe Clemson first baseman Ben Paulsen after watching him both at the plate and defensively at first base. The same adjective can be used for Brooks Raley, who is a smooth left-handed athlete that has excelled both on the mound, at the plate and in the outfield this spring. Texas A&M; may not be faring as well in the Big 12 so far this year as many predicted them to, but that is to no fault of Raley. He currently is leading the Aggies starters in ERA and is also leading the team in batting average. He has an easy delivery that produces 88-91 fastballs. He also throws a good curve and a polished changeup, and knows how to mix in all three pitches to keep hitters off-balance while pounding the strike zone. At the plate, his smooth left-handed swing allows him to smoke balls from one gap to the other. He has some home run power, although he is more of a doubles and high average hitter with a disciplined eye. On draft day I think his left arm will allow him to possibly sneak into the first round, although the sandwich or early second rounds are more likely.

C

Prep catcher Max Stassi is a true baseball rat, the type of player and person that wakes up every day to play baseball. All of his success stems from his hard work and passion for the game, and that effort makes him a joy to watch. His defensive prowess is his best asset, having great catch-and-throw skills, with a rocket for an arm and very good footwork behind the plate. His take-charge, leadership skills makes him a natural at handling a pitching staff. At the plate he employs a direct, quick stroke to spray line drives to all parts of the fields. Despite his smallish, sub-6' stature, he has pretty good pop, and has enough bat speed and overall power potential to hit his fair share of dingers. Overall he's a very good athlete, with good speed for a catcher that runs the bases well. Given his work ethic, his defensive skills and his bat, he is very solid player across the board in a very good year for prep catchers. Last summer, Stassi participated at nearly every major showcase and tournament event, including the Perfect Game National, the Tournament of Stars and Team USA, as well as the Aflac All-American and Under Armour games. He has committed to play at UCLA.

1B

Singleton is a big, barrel-chested left-handed slugger whose power potential makes him one of the most lethal hitters avaiable for the 2009 draft. He won the home run derby during last summer's Perfect Game National Showcase held at the Metrodome, socking home runs in excess of 450 feet with a wood bat. He is a good overall hitter with a refined approach. Despite his size, he is short to the ball, and knows how to work counts. He also is a fairly good overall athlete given his stature, and reminded me a little of Jason Heyward the first time I saw him. He doesn't have Heyward's overall upside, but he could develop into a special hitter at the plate. Singleton doesn't have Heyward's foot speed, although he isn't a base clogger, and isn't necessarily restricted to first base. Wherever he ends up, his bat is his ticket to the big-leagues, and he has committed to play for Long Beach State.

SS

Jackson was one of the top players in the country coming out of high school three years ago largely for his baseball acumen and his incredibly slick glove. He has great range, soft hands and a strong arm at the position and could start at the big-league level right now and have a lengthy career doing so for his defense alone. He is the tyep of player that just makes the shortstop position look so incredibly easy. His bat has been slower to develop. He has somewhat of a slight frame that he has worked hard to add strength, but he likely will never be a huge threat at the plate. Scouts were impressed by the adjustments he made from his freshman year to his sophomore year, but he has regressed some during his junior year and struggles to make hard, consistent contact, even with a metal bat. He has at least held his own at the plate while using a wood bat spending the summers in between on the Cape and with Team USA. He is a switch hitter with a contact approach and does have a knack for situational hitting and bunting. He profiles in a similar fashion to Adam Everett, with many hoping he can have a greater offensive impact. His glove alone should get him to the big-leagues.

SS

If there is a perfect shortstop prospect, at least defensively, Mier might be it. It seems as though pretty much every single shortstop prospect out there has questions about whether or not he will be able to stick at the position. Not Mier, who with graceful actions, quick feet, soft hands, a strong arm and natural instincts for the position, projects to stay at the position and will progress as far as his bat will carry him. He is definitely the type of player that makes the game look easy, and does a lot of the little things to improve the overall team defense. His bat has promise, but it also needs a lot of work. First and foremost he needs to add strength, as he's rail thin, but he has the projectability in his body to add strength if he commits to the proper strength program. That will take him several years to add the necessary bulk, and even then I'm not convinced he will ever be a legitimate threat at the plate. He is a good contact hitter, swatting the ball from gap to gap, showing good bat control, quick hands and good overall bad speed. He also has good speed, although he isn't a burner and may lose some speed as he continues to fill out. A talented player that is on the rise, and could be drafted earlier than initially expected given his abilities and upside at a premium position, he has committed to play for USC.

IF

Many felt Shields could ascend up draft boards this spring much like Gordon Beckham did last year. That is becuse he, like Beckham the year before, enjoyed a fine summer on the Cape before his junior year, although his time was cut short when he injured his wrist sliding into a base. With very good bat speed and solid offensive tools across the board, Shields has the talent to be a game-changing infielder, with the ability to hit for a high average and power while also having good enough wheels to be a threat on the basepaths. His bat speed comes from very strong hands, wrists and forearms, and he knows how to loft balls to give him double-digit home run potential. Defensively he doesn't have ideal range at the shortstop position, as many feel he may have to move to either 2B or 3B down the road, but he has plenty of arm strength to play any infield position. He does run well and shows good overall baseball instincts. Shields has posted solid numbers since stepping onto campus, including his two summer stints (he was named one of the top prospects in the Clark-Griffith League after his freshman year), and has started at Florida Southern from day one. He hasn't enjoyed as big of a spring at Florida Southern, although he still may be drafted among the top two to four rounds for his offensive promise as an infielder.

OF

Wheeler dramatically improved his draft stock last summer with a strong showing on the Cape, in which he led the circuit in stolen bases with 15. He is a very good, well-proportioned athlete whose speed highlights his tool-set. Given his size, and the fact that he hit four home runs last summer with a wood bat, leads many to believe that he will continue to drive more balls to increase his overall power production. That has occurred this spring, as he has transformed himself from a gap-to-gap hitter, using his wheels to leg out doubles and triples, into a legitimate power threat at the plate. He has very good bat speed, and very good tools across the board. He still is on the slender side, but he has plenty of room in his frame for him to add strength and continue his power surge. Despite his speed, his instincts in the outfield aren't the best, and his arm strength is well below-average, which may lead to him best off playing left field on an everyday basis. He has a contact based approach, and commands the strike zone well, so now it's just a matter of him contiuning to turn his tools into playable baseball skills.

OF

Washington's speed may be one of the biggest overall tools available in the 2009 draft. A left-handed hitter, he has the tools that make him a very appealing and exciting leadoff prospect. He has played second base during his high school career, but projects better in center-field. His defensive instincts aren't nearly as refined as his offensive ones, which is why the outfield is probably a better fit for him, putting his speed to better use and also giving him the opportunity to use that speed even if he doesn't make the correct read initially off of the crack of the bat. At the plate he has a simple, level swing, and ccan smoke the ball from right to left field. There isn't a whole lot of power to his swing, but enough to approach double-digits in home runs, and enough for him to use his speed to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. That speed also makes him a big threat on the basepaths, although at this point in time he is more about his tools than his sense for the game. Game experience at the pro level, or at the University of Florida (or both) will help him become a much better overall ballplayer.

OF

Williams is a similar prospect to Washington in that he is a toolsy, sub-six-foot outfielder that swings a promising left-handed bat. Williams is put together better than Washington, and physically reminded me of a young Ron Gant. That type of athleticism gives Williams intriguing power potential, and combined with his speed gives him a nearly unrivaled speed/power package among 2009 draft-eligible players. He has very strong hands, wrists and forearms, giving him very good bat speed. As a left-handed hitter, he gets out of the box very quickly, with the ability to out-run infield singles, leg-out triples and muscle balls over the fence. The biggest hurdle with Williams may be his in-state college commitment with the Texas Longhorns, a school that never lets any of its recruits get away very easily. Williams has the talent to get drafted high enough to make college a non-issue.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Tyler Matzek	Polished lefty with power arsenal
SP	Alex White	Second best college RHP to Strasburg
SP	Zack Wheeler	Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB
UT	Brooks Raley	Smooth lefty leads A&M; in ERA, BA
C	Luke Bailey	Baseball rat with compact build, swing
1B	Jonathan Singleton	Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat
IF	Ryan Jackson	Slick defender with questions about bat
3B	Jiovanni Mier	True SS with exciting tools
SS	Robbie Shields	2B/3B type with promising bat
OF	Tim Wheeler	Exciting blend of power & speed
OF	LeVon Washington	Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools
OF	Everett Williams	Great athlete with tools galore

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Dandy Dozen Archives

• 4-30-09
• 4-07-09
• 3-13-09
• 2-28-09

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