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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Cole epitomizes projectability, with a tall and lean 6’5”, 190 pound frame, with long and wiry strong limbs. It’s easy to see him adding more muscle mass over the next three to five years, although his body type leads you to believe that he’ll always have a slender frame. He is usually considered the second-best prep pitching prospect in the nation to Jameson Taillon, but some may put Cole ahead of Taillon since Cole’s frame does lead you to believe that he is far from maxed out physically. His fastball can be just as dominant as well, as he sits in the 92-94 range, touches the 94-96 range frequently and has approached triple digits on occasion. His fastball also shows nice sinking life when he keeps it down in the zone. His breaking ball is a hard, upper-70s to low-80s slurve that he knows how to add and subtract velocity off of that causes it to sway between a curve and a slider. Cole also throws a promising yet inconsistent changeup that acts as a perfect slow-ball, thrown around 80 mph with the same arm angle and action as his fastball. He should be taken among the top five to seven overall selections come June.

SP

This tall lefty oozes of projectability, built rail-thin at 6’5” and listed at 172 pounds. His draft stock for the 2010 draft continues to improve as he continues to impress on the big stage of college baseball, and it doesn’t hurt that he has improved his mechanics, which has improved his consistency, while throwing in the low-90s, touching 95, and also showcasing a wipeout slider as part of his power arsenal. His fastball velocity has been creeping upwards, a few ticks, year-by-year as he has received more experience. Sale’s slider is also a dominant pitch, a wicked breaker thrown in the low-80s, but he needs to work on using the same arm speed so he doesn’t tip the pitch too much before the ball is released. Overall his low, three-quarters delivery has some good deception, and he employs an aggressive approach attacking hitters. Against top competition it rarely seems as though he gets his hard. He was named the top pitcher in the Cape Cod League, leading the circuit in wins (four), innings (55) and strikeouts (57) while finishing third in ERA (1.47). He began his college career at Florida Gulf Coast University used primarily as a reliever during his freshman year before being moved to a starting role during the 2009 season. His ankles and wrists are so thin it looks as though a stiff breeze could knock him over, and his mechanics haven’t always been clean as he continues to hone his pitching craft. His command has also significantly improved, and as long as he continues this upward trend, he could be among the top five to 10 overall picks next June.

SP

Last summer was good to Smelter, who has been rising up prospect lists by turning heads at each and every major showcase and tournament event he has attended. He lights up radar guns with low-90s heat with the ability to touch 95 on occasion. Using a lightning quick arm, the ball explodes out of his hands, and batters have a hard time timing it. There is some deception to his delivery as he shows his back to the hitter as part of his windup, making him that much more difficult to hit. Despite predominantly being a fastball pitcher, he keeps hitters off balance with a very good signature pitch: A split-fingered fastball that dives down and away from right-handed batters. He also throws a very good yet inconsistent slider, as he hasn’t had to use it much given the dominance he has enjoyed with his fastball and splitter. Smelter is a well-built athlete with a strong frame and room to add even more strength as he matures. The development of his slider will be key to him remaining as a starter, otherwise, he profiles perfectly as a closer. An Aflac All-American, he struck out the side in his only inning of work, freezing two batters with perfectly placed fastballs on the outside corner, a tribute to his command. He has committed to play for Georgia Tech, so it’s not a lock that he turns pro out of high school, and may be considered a difficult sign.

UT

Brentz is an exciting two-way performer that posted huge numbers at the plate during his sophomore season. He led the nation in batting (.465), slugging (.930), OPS (1.465), home runs (28) and total bases (214). He also went 5-3 on the mound with a 4.57 ERA. A good all-around athlete, he has a nice delivery and routinely pumps his fastball in the upper-80s to low-90s. He also throws a slider and a changeup, although it doesn’t seem as though many consider him as a pitcher at the next level. At the plate he generates really good speed speed with strong forearms, hands and wrists, and is able to drive outside pitches the other way as well as pull inside offerings. There is some concern just how good he is, or can be, since he doesn’t face the greatest competition playing for Middle Tennessee State in the Sun Belt conference, but he did quiet some concerns by hitting .366 for Team USA last summer. Defensively, he has played centerfield, but is likely to settle in at one of the outfield corners with good speed and solid arm strength. Many to most notable scouting publications at this point in time have him ranked as a late first or early second-round pick, but another big spring at the plate likely will change that.

C

Gibbs is a stalwart behind the plate, a player that looks as though he was born to play the position with a short and stocky build. He has a strong lower half that gives him an excellent base for squatting and firing strikes to second base. He makes the position look easy, with good quickness, soft hands and a take-charge attitude. Gibbs was the everyday catcher for the 2009 National Champion LSU Tigers, where he handled an All-American staff including Anthony Ranaudo and the SEC pitcher of the year, Louis Coleman. He also made significant contributions during his freshman campaign, as he has carried his lofty defensive reputation since early in his high school years. At the plate he is a switch-hitter, adding to his value, and while he doesn’t profile as the next Jason Varitek or Matt Wieters, he does have good power from both sides of the plate and has shown the knack to come up with the big hit in big, pressure situations. His defense alone should allow him to be taken in the first round of the draft, and he’s good enough at the plate to become a solid, everyday receive at the next level.

1B

Wilkins is one of several prominent draft eligible prospects for Arkansas, which alone gives the Razorbacks a solid chance to repeat, if not build upon their success in 2009. In a lineup that includes Zack Cox and Brett Eibner, Wilkins led the team last year in batting (.319), doubles (18), home runs (19) and RBI (58). He also had a solid freshman campaign, and was solid swinging a wood bat during the summer of 2008 with Yarmouth in the Cape Cod League, hitting .271/.356/.450 while leading that team in doubles (10), home runs (5) and RBI (26). He was the primary DH last summer for Team USA, and while he didn’t hit that well, he did work hard on controlling the strike zone and walked more time than he struck out (14 to 11). Wilkins is a big, hulking athlete with a barrel chest and a powerful presence. He shows a patient eye and does a good job working the count and drawing walks, but he also has struck out quite a bit with a long, aggressive swing. That swing and his size gives him impressive power potential as a left-handed hitter. He has played third base during his collegiate career, but he is somewhat stiff, and will be limited to first base, or even DH, at the professional level. Another big year for he and the Razorbacks will likely put him in the conversation for the second or third round of the draft.

SS

O’Conner is a wiry strong athlete with a tall, slender built and long, strong limbs with room to add more strength. He profiles in a very similar fashion to J.J. Hardy at a similar stage in their careers, as O’Conner is a two-way threat that can burn opposing teams at the plate and then shut them down on the mound. While he throws in the low-90s with a sharp curveball, his prowess at the plate, and in the field, means his future likely lies as an infielder. He shows smooth actions defensively with soft hands and a strong throwing arm, and ranges well to both sides. While he could add strength,there is no reason that he will get too big to play the shortstop position. At the plate O’Conner has a nice, level swing with very good extension and strong wrists that gives him very good power potential for a middle infielder. He is a true baseball player that works hard to improve his game and constantly makes a difference on the field. He has committed to play for Arkansas, but he is considered a solid first-round pick that at this point in time appears likely to go somewhere in the 15-25 range overall.

IF

Dietrich is a former Aflac All-American, and was the Astros’ unsigned third-round draft pick from the 2007 draft. He made an immediate impact at Georgia Tech, when he hit .332 with 14 home runs on his way to being named a Freshman All-American. He wasn’t as strong during his sophomore year, and has had mixed results during the two summers after his first two years, including a stint with Team USA after his freshman year, and most recently on the Cape. Dietrich’s biggest strength is his professionalism, as he looks and acts like a baseball player. He is a natural in the batter’s box, with an advanced, patient approach and a line drive, left-handed swing. He has enough over the fence power to be considered a threat even if he has to move to third base, and his on-base skills make him a fit towards the top of a batting order. While he currently plays shortstop, it’s universally believed that he doesn’t have the range to stay there at the next level, and third base is the position most frequently mentioned as his long-term destination with the instincts and arm strength needed to handle the hot corner. He may be able to handle second base, or even a move to an outfield corner, although he doesn’t project to have the kind of power most expect from a corner outfielder. He’s a good bet to succeed at the next level no matter what his role, and could be a solid first-round or sandwich pick come June.

3B

Castellanos is a strong-bodied, offensive-minded third baseman built in a similar fashion to the Detroit Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera. While that doesn’t seem to be the most fair of comparisons, it does speak of his overall potential as a player. He has impressive bat speed and has a knack for hitting the ball hard, consistently to all parts of the field. He shows a good eye and overall approach at the plate, and his plate coverage gives him the potential to be a .300 hitter with 30 home run potential. His defensive future may be more in question. While he plays the left-side of the infield now, more third base than shortstop, he has been adding strength which gives him so much promise at the plate. As he continues to add strength, he may have to move to either left field or first base, which shouldn’t be a problem as his bat will always earn him his paychecks. He has committed to play locally for the University of Miami where he profiles in a similar fashion to former Hurricane Ryan Braun and current ‘Cane Harold Martinez.

OF

Brown’s best attribute may be his versatility. During his freshman year at Cal State Fullerton he split time between second base and left field. Last season he spent time at third base and all three outfield positions. Last summer, he spent the majority of the time playing centerfield on the Cape, where he was named one of the league’s all-stars, finishing the summer fifth in the circuit in batting at .310. He was one of the fastest players on the Cape, and has a nice package of tools highlighted by his swing, his versatility and his line drive bat. He’s not a huge power threat, but has enough pop to drive balls to the gaps, with enough speed to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. So far in two years at Fullerton, Brown is 48 for 59 in stolen base attempts, an 81% success rate. Despite bouncing around from position to position as much as he has, he shows good instincts in the outfield and the infield, with a strong enough arm that plays anywhere on the field. Chone Figgins’ comparisons may be inevitable given his unique abilities and profile as a top-of-the-order table-setter, and could go as early as late in the first round.

OF

One of the fastest players available in this year’s draft, Washington was a first-round pick from a year ago that went unsigned by the Tampa Bay Rays. Academic issues caused him to not attend Florida, and instead he opted to attend Chipola College which makes him eligible for the 2010 draft. He was an Aflac All-American during the summer of 2008, and soared up draft charts last spring to put himself in the conversation for the first round. His offensive tools are exciting, as he profiles as a prototypical leadoff hitter with a line drive bat to complement his change-changing speed. He hits from gap-to-gap and has a little over the fence power. He shows a good eye at the plate and knows how to get on base via the walk. Overall his game needs refinement through experience. Once considered a second baseman, his tools, and especially his speed, makes him a better option in centerfield. Washington is advised by Scott Boras, which makes his asking price a tad higher than what it normally would be, but he isn’t considered unsignable.

OF

Few players can match Parker’s potential, as he has great size and athleticism that makes him a legitimate five-tool athlete. He showed he could hit for average (.355) power (16 home runs, 20 doubles) and has speed (20 stolen bases, seven triples). Coming off of such a strong spring, expectations were high for him as he entered the summer, but he was largely a disappointment after hitting .188 and striking out 37 times in 96 at-bats. Parker did some positive things on the Cape. Eight of his 18 hits went for extra bases, he walked 22 times and he stole 10 bases in 12 attempts. The strikeouts are his biggest weakness, as he also K’d 80 times last spring for the Cavaliers. His power is legit, as he routinely puts on impressive displays in batting practice, but is too susceptible to lose focus from at-bat to at-bat in game situations. He also has a strong arm, and profiles as a prototypical right fielder. Another big spring could mean he goes among the top 12-15 picks next June, but he needs to refine his swing and overall game.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

more

Dandy Dozen Archives

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