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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. This version is a little different than most, since I usually try to assemble a team with a players from each position and three starters. This time I am profiling three high school pitchers, three college starters, three college closers and three utility/two-way stars.

SP

Whitson defines power pitching, as he has a short memory and doesn’t back down from any matchup. He attacks hitters and isn’t afraid to elevate his fastball. And he can get away with it, as his fastball sits in the low-90s, and he has no problems reaching the 95-97 range when he needs to add a little zip. His slider is also a plus pitch, a wicked breaker that gives him a prototypical one-two punch. His changeup could use some work, but it’s not a concern since he hasn’t thrown it as much given the success he has enjoyed with his fastball-slider combo. He has somewhat of an interesting delivery, as he lands a little upright and has some cross-arm/body action on his follow-through. If he doesn’t stick as a starter, his delivery and stuff may be a perfect fit in a late-inning closer’s role, but there’s no reason to even think about that at this point in time. He is a projectable athlete and one of the big reasons why prep righties are one of the most notable strengths available for the 2010 draft. He has committed to the University of Florida.

SP

After watching Covey pitch in the Aflac All-American Classic last summer, the most impressive thing that stood out to me was how well he disrupted the timing off the opposing batters he faced. He was fearless and aggressive, and really did a nice job owning the outside corner to right-handed batters. He has a slow windup but a fast arm, although there appears to be some effort to his delivery. An overall plus athlete with loose actions, he’s built strongly with broad shoulders and a strong lower half. His fastball sits in the 89-92 range, can touch 95, and he has a great three-pitch mix with a very good curveball and a surprisingly refined changeup. Despite battling some injuries early last summer, he settled down late in the summer and into the fall and has really improved his overall draft status, putting his name among the best pitchers, from high school and college, available for this June’s draft. He is part of an incredible recruiting class for the University of San Diego.

SP

Aviles looks like a big-league pitcher, with a strong lower half and good balance throughout his delivery. He reminds me of Chris Tillman, who is also a former Aflac All-American, now pitching in the big-leagues for the Orioles, with a similar build and fastball-curveball combo. Aviles’ fastball sits in the low-90s with a little bit of sinking movement, he has touched the mid-90s, and while watching him pitch you can easily see that the best has yet to come. He also has a very good changeup that he is comfortable enough with to throw in any count, a pitch he throws with the same arm action and release as his fastball, making it that much more difficult to identify out of his hand. The most impressive part of his game is his overall polish, as he changes speeds and hits his spots very well for a player his age, which may allow him to advance quickly through the minors. That is if he doesn’t honor his commitment to play for the Florida Gators.

SP

Wimmers has a knack for missing bats. Just take a look at his strikeout numbers relative to innings pitched (296 punchouts in under 220 innings) during his college career, which includes his two years at Ohio State, a summer in the Valley League and last summer on the Cape. While he also does a good job limiting hits against him, his control is inconsistent and has walked roughly a batter every other inning. He also tossed a no-hitter against conference rival and perennial Big Ten powerhouse Michigan a year ago. With that type of background you may think that Wimmers throws in the upper-90s with no idea of where his pitches go. That’s far from the case, as he work in the 88-92 range and actually spots his fastball quite well. A lot of his control issues are believed to be the way college pitchers are taught to work the strike zone due to aluminum bats. He also has a hammer curveball, which is his go-to strikeout pitch, and a good changeup. Few pitchers are as polished as Wimmers, and another could spring could push him into consideration for the top 10 to 15 overall picks in the draft come June.

SP

It didn’t take long for Pomeranz to make an impression at Ole Miss, challenging both Lance Lynn and Cody Satterwhite for weekend rotation spots during his freshman year. In a year short on quality left-handed pitching, Pomeranz stands out. He has a big, sturdy frame, even if he isn’t the most ideal all-around athlete and will have to work hard to make sure his body doesn’t go too soft. He also has a very good fastball that sits in the 89-91 range and can touch 95. He commands this pitch very well and it clearly is his best offering. His curveball is good when it’s working for him, but he really needs to work on throwing it more confidently in all counts so batters don’t lay off of it to tee off on his heater. He also needs to work on his changeup more so that it too becomes a reliable secondary pitch, which will just make his fastball that much more effective. He pitched very well and served as the staff ace for Team USA last summer, going 4-1 with an impressive 48 to 9 strikeout to walk ratio in just over 25 innings of work. He pitched extremely well down the stretch last year, but scouts still aren’t convinced he can become a top-of-the rotation starter.

SP

McGuire was named the ACC pitcher of the year during the 2009 season, posting an 11-2 record and a 3.50 ERA. McGuire has a tall, athletic and sturdy frame that should allow him to sustain his velocity and handle the rigors of pitching deep into ballgames over the course of a long season. Like Pomeranz, McGuire’s stature isn’t picture-perfect when it comes to projectability, as he looks as though he already is physically mature and will have to make sure his body doesn’t soften up in the next few years. His fastball can touch the mid-90s, and he comfortably works in the 91-94 range while mixing in a very good overhand curveball. He can also throw a slider and a changeup, giving him a well-rounded four-pitch repertoire. McGuire is best off when he is attacking the strike zone. When he starts to get too cute and nibble he starts to walk more batters, and while he has good stuff, is stuff isn’t good enough to simply, and consistently, blow batters away. He’s a solid all-around pitcher with good stuff, and likely profiles as a number three starter. He should go somewhere in the middle of the first round of the draft.

CL

Jacob’s efforts last summer in the Alaskan League really opened a lot of people’s eyes, when he posted a 0.34 ERA with a 45 to 4 strikeout to walk ratio in 26.2 innings of work. He also recorded 12 saves, the first time he was exclusively used in that role, a role that he now seems destined for moving forward. He has a big, strong and intimidating frame and overall presence, no unlike Jonathan Broxton of the Los Angeles Dodgers. His fastball easily sits in the mid-90s in short relief and frequently touches 97 and 98. He also throws a nasty slider that has reach the upper-80s, giving him two wipeout pitches that are incredibly hard to catch up with, much less tell the difference between. Finding his home as a closer really allowed everything to come together for Jacob, as he previously struggled with just about everything, from his fastball command to the consistency of his slider and the velocity of both pitches. If he’s able to carry his success from last summer into the spring, he could help carry Georgia Tech to a big spring, which would like mean he gets selected in the middle of the first round.

CL

Bettis really flourished when he was inserted into the closer’s role for Texas Tech last spring, a role he also served with Team USA last summer, with 10 saves in 32 total appearances. He has started in the past, and may even return to a starting role this spring, but his size and stuff profile the best in a short relief role. In that role his fastball sits in the mid-90s and can approach triple digits. He has a very sharp yet inconsistent slider. He can throw a changeup, but it needs a lot of work, as he hasn’t had to use it too much during his college career. He has a shorter, slender yet wiry strong frame that also may suggest a bullpen role, and seems to be better off when he doesn’t have to pace himself and simply throw as hard as he can. The 2010 draft class has a trio of live-armed potential closers in Bettis, Jacobs (profiled above) and Hahn (profiled below) that could all sneak into the first round of the draft.

CL

Hahn arguably possesses the most powerful arm of those eligible for this year’s draft. He reach 98 last summer pitching on the Cape, and regularly sat in the mid-90s. He has the type of fastball that simply dominates opposing hitters, and when his curveball is working for him, he is nearly untouchable. That makes him a prime closer candidate, although many scouts are interested to see how he would fare as a starter, as he does throw a decent changeup, although the pitch needs more work. There is some effort to his delivery, and his mechanics could stand to be cleaned up a little, neither or which is too big of a concern if he remains in a short relief role. As a starter he will need to clean this up while also learning to pace himself. He has been used primarily in relief his entire college career, and because of that his arm is relatively fresh (just over 103 innings pitched in two year at Virginia Tech and the summer on the Cape). Despite his power arsenal, he has only struck out 76 batters during that time, but many believe the best has yet to come. On his arm alone, some have him ranked as one of the top three to five draft eligible prospects from the college ranks.

UT

Most two-way standouts are usually preferred one way or the other by most scouts, but Eibner is a case in which his future has yet to be determined. He is a great all-around athlete, with a very good tool set across the board. As a positional prospect, he is tailor-made for right field, with the ability to track balls well and cover good ground while also owning a cannon for an arm. His power bat equals his power arm, as he has the ability to smoke balls to all fields and shows a pretty good eye at the plate. On the mound Eibner can touch the mid-90s and regularly works a few ticks below that. He also throws a slider, curve and change. His slider is the better of the two breaking pitches that he is more comfortable with, and his changeup is fairly refined despite the fact that he doesn’t focus on pitching. He will be an integral part of the Arkansas program that is looking to pick up where they left off last year, surprising everyone with a trip to Omaha, and he is one of the more intriguing players eligible for the draft that could quickly rise up draft boards with a big start to his spring.

UT

Cabrera is built like a professional baseball player, with a mature, physical build that reminds me of a pair of big-league shortstops: Edgar Renteria and Yunel Escobar. Since he already resembles those two as a high school senior, I’m not so sure that Cabrera sticks at shortstop, as a move to either third base or the outfield is probably sooner rather than later. I, like most others, prefer his bat to his arm, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he were eventually drafted as a pitcher. He won the home run derby at spacious Petco Park as part of the Aflac All-American festivities last summer, a tribute to his bat speed and natural power potential. With his size and bat, he has the potential to become an impact hitter at the next level, with an exciting power/power combination. His electric arm may get in the way of that happening, as he has easy arm strength that effortlessly produces 90-95 fastballs to go along with a hammer curve. His delivery could use some work, but his arm is special enough to take a chance on. He has committed to play for Miami.

UT

Even if you don’t know anything about Allie before watching him play, you quickly get an idea of what he’s all about: Power. He is built as strong as an ox, with thick proportions and a barrel chest. He offers an intimidating presence both in the batter’s box and on the mound, as has the swing to match his power arm. Despite his large, mature frame, he has very good athleticism and will surprise you with his quickness at third base. However, if he is drafted for his bat, first base could be his eventual position. His power plays any and everywhere, as he routinely hits tape measure shots, although his swing also leads to rather lofty strikeout totals. He has the same type of profile on the mound, where his power arm leads to upper-90s readings. He also has a killer slider that has been clocked in the low-90s, which, along with his all-or-nothing style of play supports the idea of him being used as a closer should he be groomed as a pitcher. If scouts have trouble deciding which they like better, Allie may take his talents to North Carolina.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

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