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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Foltynewicz was already throwing 94 indoors in mid-February, and was reportedly up to 96 during his first start in mid-March on a cold and blustery day outside of Chicago. That alone gives you an idea for his arm strength, not to mention his progression, as he was topping out in the 92-93 range last summer. He also continues to sharpen the break on his hard curveball, which he has developed into a plus pitch. With that dominant of a one-two punch, it is all the more impressive that he also shows good feel for his changeup, which he growing more and more comfortable throwing in almost any count and situation. He’s built tall and strong and is expected to continue to fill out the next several years. There are some issues to clean up with his delivery, but nothing serious. A good overall athlete, he can also swing the bat and has some pop in his swing. His commitment to Texas could complicate matters, a school known for drawing more than their fair share of promising recruits away from the pros.

SP

It was somewhat surprising to see Reed open the year as the Aztecs’ starter, as many expected him to continue to be used as a dominant reliever. He used a mid-90s fastball that could reach the 96-97 range on occasion to go perfect in save opportunities a year ago while leading the nation with 20. He was able to close several of the games that Stephen Strasburg started last year, and that allowed him to garner a little added attention as a sophomore. As a starter he works comfortably at 89-92 with some dip to his heater, and he continues to throw a very effective slider that can make batters look ugly when he’s throwing it as well as he can. His new pitching coach, Eric Valenzuela, has also taught him a changeup this year, and he continues to make strides with that pitch. So far this year he has commanded the strike zone very well, sporting a 59 to 8 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings of work as of late April. He’s also a talented hitter, and was known more for his bat than for his arm in high school. That means his arm is relatively fresh, and given his success this year, he adds to an already impressive depth of college righties.

SP

Tago possesses one of the most electric arms available for this year’s draft, with an easy and effortless, whip-like delivery in which the ball explodes out of his hand. He works comfortably in the low-90s with his heater, and has been clocked as high as 96. He shows good command of the pitch, which has some late life to it, and has some deception to his low three-quarters delivery. He also throws both a curveball and a slider that acts similar to a cut-fastball. The slider seems to have more promise, particularly given his arm angle, but he doesn’t need to choose between the two as he does a good job adding and subtracting between the two pitches. He doesn’t throw much of a changeup, but he hasn’t had to up to this point. He continues to add strength on a very lithe and projectable frame, and may continue to add more ticks to his velocity as he does so. During his relief appearance at the Aflac All-American Classic last summer he looked to fit the part as a closer, although he reportedly sustains his velocity well deep into ballgames. He has committed to play for UCLA.

UT

2009 was very good to this small school, two-way star. Between his spring at Ball State and his summer playing in the Great Lakes League, where he led the league in nearly every offensive category, Vitek posted ‘Nintendo’ numbers. In 343 at-bats, covering 85 games between the spring and summer, he hit .394/.460/.738 with 41 doubles, 10 triples, 19 home runs and 105 RBI while swiping 27 bags in 37 attempts. He also proved to scouts that he has the tools to back up his production, with strong hands and wrists that gives him very good bat speed as well as above average time speed and natural base-running instincts. On the mound he can throw in the low-90s and also spins a good curveball. His upside is greater as a positional prospect, where his power bat and arm strength makes him a natural fit at the hot corner at the next level. He continues to be Ball State’s leading hitter and best starter this spring, hitting just shy of .400 with 11 home runs while posting a 3.51 ERA in 10 games.

C

Sabol is one of this draft’s better overall athletes and hitters. He has very good bat speed and power potential, and could end up playing a corner outfield spot or even first base down the road. He currently plays catcher, with more than enough arm to play the position, but he just doesn’t seem to be born to play behind the plate. He’s an offensive-first minded individual, not unlike athletic sluggers that have risen from the prep ranks in recent years such as Brett Lawrie and Devin Mesoraco. He has a good approach at the plate and is the type of player that makes hitting look easy. He can drive the ball to all parts of the park and looks much older than he is in the battter’s box. Sabol has teamed with Christian Yelich, represented just below at first base on this list, to offer a formidable duo in the middle of the ABD Bulldogs baseball academy lineup in recent years. He was an Aflac All-American last summer, and has committed to play for the Oregon Ducks.

1B

A sweet-swinging left-handed slugger from an always talented Southern California crop, Yelich oddly enough has committed to play on the other corner of the nation for the Miami Hurricanes. He is one of the best pure hitters available for this year’s draft, with a great approach, plate coverage and bat speed, with budding power and very good present-day gap power. He makes good adjustments and has good hand-eye coordination, all traits of a good, young hitter. While he’s a good overall athlete, a weak arm will relegate him to either first base or left field, but his bat shouldn’t make that an issue. In a year thin on hitting talent, don’t be surprised to see Yelich’s name sneak into the lower third of the first round or somewhere in the sandwich round.

2B

When watching Bisson play it’s clear the game comes easy to him. He does a lot of the little things very well, adding to his overall value as a baseball player. He’s on the short side, but as the second baseman that isn’t as big of a concern, particularly since his speed and defense are his calling cards. He turns the pivot on double plays like a 10-year veteran, and his speed gives him very good range in both directions. His fringe average arm strength will keep him at second base. A left-handed hitter, he gets down the first base line in a hurry, and is a threat to steal bases. He has a very patient approach, and clearly knows the value of working the count and getting on base any way he can. There isn’t much power to his swing, as he’s more of a line drive hitter with some gap power that will be able to stretch the basepaths. He led the Cape in swipes last summer with 36 (in 45 attempts), and has 21 so far this year (in 25 attempts). As good as his approach is, he needs to cut down his strikeouts a little bit, otherwise he profiles similar to a leadoff-hitting second baseman similar to Fernando Vina.

SS

Littlewood is a big-bodied shortstop prospect that unlike so many of the top amateur prospects at his position, actually projects to stay there. While he is larger for the position and may not be the rangiest, he makes all of the plays, and showcases a strong and accurate arm, smooth actions and a natural sense for the position. He’s a leader on the infield, and his size/stature profile is somewhat similar to the Braves’ Yunel Escobar. Offensively he isn’t quite as polished, and he will have to continue to work hard to make adjustments to make as big of an impact at the plate. His size does give him promising power potential, and he is a switch-hitter that has shown some pop from both sides of the plate. An Aflac All-American last summer, he is part of a very talented recruiting class for the University of San Diego.

3B

Thompson was the triple crown winner in the Big 12 last year as a sophomore, hitting .389-21-82. That led to an invitation to try out for USA Baseball's national collegiate team, but instead played in the Northwoods League when he didn’t make the cut. he handled the wood bat well, hitting .293, and received enough support from the league coaches and scouts that covered the league for me to rate him as the NWL’s fourth best prospect in my work with Perfect Game. Scouts were impressed with his intensity and pro-style body, and he even elicited a few Troy Glaus-type comparisons. While he has a strong arm, his actions aren't as fluid as preferred at the hot corner, leaving some scouts to wonder if he may eventually have to slide across the diamond to first base. He has great extension at the plate, and has shown the ability to drive the ball the other way when everyone started to pitch him away after last year. He fractured his kneecap early this season that caused him to miss roughly a month, and while he has been slow to find his power swing since his return, he is doing a good job managing the strike zone and taking what he can get.

OF

Knecht’s draft status is rising quickly this spring as he’s putting up huge, Pete Incaviglia-esque numbers for juco power Connors State this spring, and has already broken some school records in the process. He started his college career at Oklahoma State (Incaviglia’s alma matter), but hardly received any playing time, and decided to transfer to the juco ranks so he didn’t have to sit out a year. He has responded with big numbers, and through 42 games this year Knecht was hitting .472 with 20 doubles and 16 home runs. He’s a bigger, stronger athlete with very good bat speed and a disciplined yet aggressive approach at the plate. With that profile you may think that he’s just a hitter, but he’s actually a good overall athlete with solid tools across the board and exciting speed given his power potential. His arm strength is average at best, and his instincts defensively aren’t the greatest, meaning he probably fits best in left field.

OF

Linton may very well be this year’s version of Donovan Tate, with a sculpted 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and a potential dual-sport college career awaiting him at the University of North Carolina. His commitment is to the football team, so that alone may be difficult to sign him away from, but overall he shows pretty good baseball instincts and an exciting tool set that is matched by few in this year’s class. His power potential is obvious, and while he’s not quite as loose of an athlete as Tate, his size and speed is somewhat comparable to Jeff Francoeur at a similar stage in his career (a talented safety prospect that committed to play for Clemson coming out of high school). It is expected that Linton will continue to get bigger and stronger, particularly if he continues to pursue his football career, which could take away some of his speed and likely would make him fit best in a corner outfield spot. As it stands now, he could develop into a 30-30 player if he doesn’t give up on baseball.

OF

Like Thompson, Kvasnicka is another player I covered last summer in the Northwoods League, although he didn’t receive the same type of universal support. He was one of the league’s leading hitters, and most of the coaches were quick to mention his name as one of the league’s best, but the scouts I spoke to were split on him. Some were quick to point out his athletic body type, quick swing from both sides of the plate and overall athleticism, while a few others noted how he could be pitched to due to the number of holes in his swing. He seems to have tightened up a few of those holes, and is doing a very good job managing the strike zone this spring. He has more power in his swing that what he has shown up to this point, but he has been getting on base at a high clip while cutting down on his strikeouts drastically. He also has been used behind the plate on a part-time basis for the Gophers, and has shown some promise. While he doesn’t have a big arm, his athleticism gives him good quickness, and the more teams believe he can stick back there, the better chance he has to sneak into the early second or even sandwich round.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

more

Dandy Dozen Archives

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