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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Paxton was an unsigned sandwich round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays from the 2009 draft. He soared up draft charts last spring after his fastball velocity increased from the upper-80s to low-90s to the mid-90s, as he touched 97-98 on occasion. He struggled with command and consistency as the spring progressed, and his affiliation with Scott Boras caused him to slip a little further than expected. Because reports surfaced that Boras had negotiated his potential contract with the Blue Jays last summer, he was withheld from competition due to the NCAA’s ‘no agent’ rule. Since Paxton refused to fill out the NCAA’s questionnaire regarding this matter, and his temporary injunction was denied in the court room, he opted to leave Kentucky to pursue an independent league club in an attempt to improve his draft stock for this June. In addition to his fastball, he also throws a hammer curve when it’s working for him. He could use a little more seasoning, as he consistently is around the zone, but works deep into counts which causes his pitch count to ascend more quickly than it should. He throws from a low three-quarters delivery, giving him natural deception, and has an incredible easy arm action. The lack of impact lefties in this year’s draft could help his cause, since his character has been scrutinized after he effectively admitted his guilt by not following the protocol the NCAA had mandated.

SP

Projectability is the first word that pops into one’s head when watching Gausman, a tall athletic righty with long limbs and broad shoulders with plenty of room to add strength. He shows good balance on the mound, and a clean, easy delivery in which the ball explodes out of his hand. After watching him pitch in the 2009 Aflac All-American Classic, his build and stuff reminded me a little of watching the late Nick Adenhart pitch in the inaugural contest of this game back in 2003. Gausman shows a good fastball that sits in the 88-91 range and can touch 96, and is expected to sit more in the 91-94 range once he fills out his lean frame. He also has a big, breaking slow curve, a slider and a changeup that is relatively refined for his age. A pitcher from Colorado, It’s easy to dream about how good this young man could become down the road once he gains more experience and continues to learn the finer nuances of pitching. He has committed to LSU, a school that has been known to keep talented players away from pro ball coming out of high school.

SP

Many publications had Harvey rated higher than Rick Porcello among the top prep players available for the 2007 draft when the spring scouting season opened three years ago. Harvey didn’t have the same kind of command and polish that Porcello did, and still does, a large part of why Porcello was able to soar through the minor leagues so quickly while enjoying immediate success during his first year as a big-leaguer. The path has been longer for Harvey, who fell to the third round of the ’07 draft which caused him to pursue his college commitment to UNC. His control struggles persisted into both his freshman and sophomore years at North Carolina, following in the footsteps of some very good, live-armed prospects such as Daniel Bard, Andrew Miller and Alex White. With a good, athletic body and a live arm, scouts have known about Harvey for quite some time, as he’s able to maintain his mid-90s velocity deep into ballgames. He also has a very sharp curveball and an improving changeup. His stock is on the rise again this spring as it seems as though he may be starting to put it all together. The strikeouts remain up, and his walks are down, limiting base runners and rarely getting hit hard. The sky is the limit for this young man, and if he continues to show his newfound command and poise, he could sneak back into top 10 consideration.

UT

Vettleson is an intriguing prospect for the simple fact that he can pitch with both arms. He doesn’t always pitch with both arms, and in competitive play he usually takes the mound as a righty. His fastball shows good life and sits in the upper-80s to low-90s., and he can reach a few ticks higher than that on occasion and when needed. Should a team pursue him for his arm, he has an easy, graceful delivery and is expected to add more velocity as he continues to mature. He also shows a sharp curveball and the potential for a solid changeup. At this point in time, it would seem as though his upside as a power-hitting right-fielder is higher. His arm strength translates well to the outfield, as he consistently makes strong, consistent throws. His bat is his best tool, with very good bat speed from the left-side of the plate and a knack for making hard contact to all parts of the field. His speed is roughly average, and he moves well. Both he and Josh Sale give the state of Washington two very good left-handed hitting outfield prospects available for this year’s draft. Vettleson has committed to play for Oregon State.

C

Grandal was one of the top prep catchers available for the 2007 draft, with an extensive resume playing with and against the best players in the nation at nearly every notable national showcase and tournament event. He wasn’t expected the slide past the second round based on talent, but when he slipped to the 27th round it became clear that he would head to Miami. In high school his defense received more praise than his bat, although his potential at the plate has always been evident. He consistently recorded POP times in the 1.80 range, with a strong arm and a quick release. He positions himself well defensively, and shows both good lateral quickness and soft hands. Catching some of the top pitchers in the nation has never been an issue for him. While he is a switch-hitter, he is much better from the left-side of the plate, with much more power and a keen eye. He has struggled to hit for average his first two years for the Hurricanes, and only hit .182 for Team USA last summer. He did hit three home runs last summer, and has hit 23 dingers in his two years at Miami. It’s unlikely he will ever hit for a high average with a long swing and average bat speed, but there’s plenty of power for him to be a productive catcher with solid defensive tools. He’s off to a good start at the plate this spring, and if that continues he may re-establish himself as a mid-to-late first-round pick.

1B

Wiswall improved his draft position last summer on the Cape, finishing among the league leaders in batting (.302), slugging (.447), hits, extra-base hits and RBI. At Boston College last spring, he shared the team lead in home runs with the eventual fourth-overall pick of last June’s draft, Tony Sanchez, with 14, and led the team in RBI. He shows a smooth, left-handed swing at the plate with an aggressive approach. He has solid bat speed and good extension, and proved that there is power in his swing using a wood bat as well as an aluminum one, although it remains to be seen just how much power he will develop on a consistent basis. He could stand to be more selective at the plate as he is prone to strikeouts, and while he has played third base, he is likely restricted to playing first base at the next level. At first, he could be a plus defender, with good hands and footwork. In a year light on bats, particularly big bats that profile to play the infield corners, Wiswall may hear his name called within the first several rounds this coming June.

IF

Gyorko may not have the ideal size or exciting tools that scouts look for, but all he has done is hit during his college career. He put his name in the conversation as a legitimate early round prospect when he finished third in the Cape in batting (.323), home runs (three) and slugging percentage (.488). He makes consistent hard contact with the ability to lace line drives to all parts of the field and enough bat speed and overall power to muscle balls over the fence. He also shows a disciplined approach at the plate, and values the importance of working the count and drawing walks. Where he ends up defensively is still up in the air. He has played shortstop at West Virginia, but that is not an option at the next level. He is considered a second or third baseman, but there are concerns about his quickness and range at those positions as well. He may have to move to an outfielder corner, similar to the Marlins’ Chris Coghlan, and like Coghlan, Gyorko’s bat could be good enough to allow him to stick there.

SS

Cecchini was considered to be one of the better left-handed hitters available for this year’s draft before he was shut down for the season due to a torn ACL. He has a quick and level swing with good loft that gives him intriguing power potential. While he entered the season as Barbe, High School’s shortstop, it has already been determined that he doesn’t have the necessary range and lateral quickness to stay at the position, and will have to move to third base at the next level. He profiles perfectly at the position, although his injury situation now clouds his professional future, and may be a better bet to honor his commitment to LSU, a school already known to lure talented young prep players away from the pro ranks out of high school. However, that doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be college bound, as an injury a year ago to prep catcher Luke Bailey didn’t prevent the Rays from selecting him in the fourth round and signing him for second round money.

3B

Few players offer the kind of power potential that Bryant does, with a tall, lanky build and long, wiry strong limbs. He gets great extension from the right side of the plate, and rarely gets cheated. That said, his swing can get long, and he is also susceptible to strikeouts. He finished second as part of the home run derby at the Perfect Game National Showcase at the Metrodome during the summer of 2009, and also participated at the Aflac All-American Classic in San Diego. He is a good overall athlete, with good actions for a player his size, although anytime an infielder is as tall as he is there are future concerns about whether or not he will be able to stick at the hot corner. He runs well enough for right field to be his next best, most likely destination, but that isn’t a concern that needs to be addressed anytime soon. He has a strong, accurate throwing arm and profiles in a similar fashion to former South Carolina Gamecock Logan Darnell. He has committed to play for the University of San Diego, and may be poised to take over third base from incumbent starter Victor Sanchez should he pursue a college career before turning pro.

OF

Golden is built like an NFL running back, with a muscular and well-sculpted frame in which his biceps pop out of his shirt sleeves. He has a similar, aggressive mentality on the baseball field, and physically resembles former big-league outfielder Ron Gant. Overall it’s hard not to like Golden’s tools, as he has good front-line speed, power potential and a strong arm. He is a threat to steal bases and has 30-30 potential. At the plate he employs a quick, compact swing, and has very good bat speed that allows him to muscle good fastballs out of the park. His approach is rather simple, and he swings aggressively but has good enough plate coverage and pitch recognition to hit for contact. In the outfield he runs down balls like Ray Lankford, or even Bo Jackson, and his arm strength is an asset at any of the three positions. He has committed to play in-state for Alabama.

OF

Wates is rising up draft charts this spring as he continues to prove he can be a productive hitter, hitting well over .400 over a month into the college baseball season with 17 extra-base hits and 10 stolen bases in 11 attempts. He is one of the more athletic players, particularly from the college ranks, available for this year’s draft. He followed up a strong sophomore campaign with a good year on the Cape last summer, hitting .312 which was fourth best in the league, and while he didn’t hit any home runs with a wood bat, he consistently hit the ball hard. Overall much of Wates’ game appears to be improving as he continues to gain experience. More power is expected from him, as he has good size and bat speed and shows the ability to drive the ball. He also hasn’t played too much time in centerfield while in college, with most of his time spent on an outfield corner and even first base, even though center is expected to be him primary position as a professional. He has very good game-changing speed that should serve him well both in the outfield and on the basepaths. His progression has firmly put his name as a legitimate candidate to sneak into the first round of this year’s draft.

OF

Landry was a three-sport star in high school that played running back, wide receiver, and defensive back in football, and was also the team captain on the basketball team as a guard. It’s not surprise that he is a superior overall athlete with an exciting tool set. Those tools are highlighted by his defense in centerfield, where he has excellent range and shows a knack for positioning himself and track down fly balls. His arm strength is below average, and rates as his only tool that isn’t considered a strength. He also has very good power potential, with the ability to drive balls out of the ballpark thanks to good bat speed. He does swing aggressively, and can be fooled by breaking pitches, making him susceptible to striking out. He did hit .364 last summer in the Cape after arriving late haven played for the College World Series champion LSU Tigers. Being able to hit so well with a wood bat was an encouraging sign to scouts after Landry has struggled some during the spring.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

more

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