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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen 4-9-11

Dandy Dozen number nine is listed below for your reading pleasure. With the draft less than two months away, the names we are most accustomed to hearing about have stayed relatively the same. One player that has drastically improved his stock this spring that hasn't been profiled previously is Granden Goetzman.

SP

Gagnon was a 10th round pick of the Pirates coming out of high school prior to attending Long Beach State. He was inserted into a weekend starting role during his freshman year, although he didn’t fare particularly well. Gagnon pitched significantly better the summer after his freshman year in the Northwoods League, being named one of the league’s top pitching prospects and participated in the all-star team. He carried that success into his sophomore year and into the following summer, where he was again an all-star, this time on the Cape. He throws mostly in the 88-91 range, with the ability to touch 93-94 in shorter stints. He also throws a promising slurvy curveball with sharp downer action and an improving changeup. His best attribute is his ability to pitch, as he does a pretty good job recording outs by changing speeds and hitting his spot. He doesn’t have the stuff to blow batters away, so this part of his game is key to his future success. He has an athletic and projectable frame with long wiry strong limbs and continues to add strength. He profiles as a third starter at best at the next level, but has a relatively high floor.

SP

Johnson has the build of a workhorse, with a thick and stocky, barrel-chested physique. Don’t let the listed 240 scare you too much, he is actually put together pretty well. He repeats his delivery pretty well for a big guy, and his size leads one to believe that he should be able to maintain his velocity deep into ballgames. He began his college career as Cal’s closer before being moved to the Friday starting role. He throws his fastball in the 90-93 range and has been pretty steady in the low-90s for the past year. He has a good curveball as well, and has made strides with his changeup in the past year, giving him three solid pitches that he throws for strikes. None of these pitches profile as a plus pitch however, so he needs to rely on his command to stay consistent. Control is another aspect of his game that has improved over the past year, and while he doesn’t have the highest upside, there is enough between his size and three-pitch repertoire to be hopeful that he could develop into a fourth or fifth starter (possibly a third).

SP

Lake is a native of the Virgin Islands, and has one of the livelier arms of those eligible for this year’s draft. He has very fast arm speed in which the ball explodes out of his hand. His fastball can sit in the low-90s, sometimes sitting in the upper-80s with the present day ability to pitch in the mid-90s on occasion as well. He also throws a sharp slider that has late diving life to it, somewhat slurvy in that is drops straight down like a curve, just faster and without as much break. His changeup is also promising, but he needs more consistency and experience throwing it. Lake’s fastball can also show some late, sinking life to it, and he has shown the overall ability to pitch down in the zone, giving him the ability to routinely induce weak groundballs. Physically he has a shorter yet strong, compact and sturdy frame that isn’t overly projectable, but his arm speed and strength alone leads one to believe he could be throwing harder, more consistently in the next few years.

CL

Maronde arrived at Florida as one of the Gators most promising recruits in recent years, but he hasn’t exactly developed as expected. He was expected to be a starter as one of the top high school players eligible for the 2008 draft, but has settled in as a short reliever as part of the nation’s most dominant bullpens. He has stocky, bulldog build and a max effort delivery that probably wouldn’t serve him too well long-term if he were returned to a starting role, with the ability to pitch in the 93-96 range with his fastball. The pitch is fairly straight, but hitters have a difficult time catching up to it. Because of the velocity, and his overall demeanor on the mound, he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters by elevating the pitch. Being used in a short relief role, Maronde has thrown mostly fastballs the times I have seen him the last two years. He will mix in a breaking ball from time to time, which can morph between a slurvy curveball and a true slider, as well as a changeup, but none of his secondary pitches are better than average at this stage. He has improved his command some over the last year, and recently has shown the ability to hit the outside corner routinely against right-handed batters.

C

Some people have Delmonico ranked significantly higher than others, as he’s somewhat of an enigmatic prospect depending on how much you believe in his bat. He offers a tall and sturdy build, with strength throughout, although there isn’t too much room left for projection since he’s relatively physically mature for a high school senior. That stature offers a rather intimidating presence from the left-side of the batter’s box, and he has proven time and time again that he can be a force with the bat in his hand. He is quick to the ball with good bat speed, extension, and a natural uppercut to his left-handed swing. He shows a pretty good idea at the plate and can hit the ball hard to all parts of the field. Defensively there are bigger questions, since he may not have the flexibility to stick behind the plate. Some of have suggested that he play third base, but his future home may be at first base. His bat offers enough potential for that move. He has committed to play for Georgia.

1B

Wilson made the most of showcases his talents last summer in the Cape League. He finished second among those that qualified in slugging (.477), tied for second in home runs (five) and seventh in batting (.294) while being named as a starter to the Western Division squad. Those numbers give you an idea as to his potential at the plate, with a sturdy and physical stature, strong forearms and wrists and good bat speed. He showed in his time on the Cape that he is stick able to hit rockets with a wood bat, and like so many Arizona State hitters, shows a selective approach at the plate. There is some question as to how much power he will hit for at the next level, especially since his future defensive position is still in question. He is currently playing first base, and may be able to play an outfield corner. He has played third base in the past, but doesn’t profile as well at the hot corner. His overall profile is similar to that of Phil Nevin as a bat-first type of player, and as long as he keeps hitting he’ll find a place to play on the field.

IF

Trent looks like he was born to hit. With a strong, square build, sloped shoulders and a confident approach in the batter’s box, it’s easy to imagine him hitting at any and every level he plays. He has a strong, compact swing that allows him to drive the ball deep to all parts of the park, and also gives him solid over the fence pop. He shows a good eye at the plate, good bat speed, and will put an aggressive swing on a ball when he gets a pitch he likes. Defensively he probably fits best either at third base or in left field. He likely would begin his pro career, either now or after his commitment to Florida, in the infield, where he has shown good lateral actions and a strong, accurate throwing arm. Given his relatively mature frame, there isn’t too much projection left, which may lead to an eventual move to the outfield. He has shown good speed, and has good to very good tools across the board.

3B

Dante Jr. resembles his father, both physically and facially, and profiles as a similar player at the next level. His slightly open and upright batting stance, as well as the follow-through on his swing, also are reminiscent of his father’s. He doesn’t get cheated at the plate, and isn’t afraid to put a big swing on a pitch. That big swing could lead to some big strikeout numbers at the next level, but when he connects the ball can travel a long way. He offers a large, physically mature presence on the field, with room for him to continue to get bigger over the next three to five years. That size leads some to wonder if he would be better sliding across the diamond or to an outfield corner, but for now he shows some goods movements at the hot corner. He has a strong arm that will serve him well no matter where he plays on the field. He was a member of the Under Armour game last summer, and has committed to play college ball at Georgia.

SS

There aren’t too many concerns about Nola’s future home defensively, as he makes all of the plays from the shortstop position with gliding actions, soft hands and a strong and accurate throwing arm. Physically he has done a nice job adding strength to his projectable and previously lanky frame. He hit only .221 last summer on the Cape playing for Harwich, with only two extra base hits (both doubles) in over 100 at-bats. Plenty of good hitters have posted less than ideal numbers on the Cape, but his bat does remain a concern moving forward. He has shown more power potential at LSU, but for the most part is a line drive hitter. He works the count well and does a nice job getting on base, but will need to continue to add strength to become more of a force at the plate. His glove will help him progress once in the minors.

OF

Martini is a good all-around ballplayer whose best skill is his eye at the plate. He does a very good job working the count and recognizes the value of getting on base via the walk. He has some speed when he reaches, and runs the bases well overall. At the plate as a left-handed hitter he has a level swing and also swings down on the ball to put it in play. He can hit line drives from gap to gap, understanding the value of going with pitches to maximize his value. There isn’t much loft to his swing or the balls that he hits, so power isn’t part of his game and likely never will be. His arm strength is below average, which limits him to left field despite having better than average speed. His approach and overall game awareness should allow him to advance fairly quickly, but his ceiling definitely is limited.

OF

Carson is a tightly wound athlete with muscular definition throughout his chiseled although shorter frame. He is a highly touted football recruit as well with game changing speed. He can cover a tremendous amount of ground in centerfield, and is a good base stealing threat with nice first-step quickness and quick, short and explosive steps. He is equally quick and short to the ball at the plate as a switch hitter, although he is better from the right side. He knows how to swing down on a ball to put it in play to maximize his speed to get on base, and he can also surprise people by putting a charge into a ball from time to time. He shows good arm strength from the outfield, and could be tried at second base to maximize his value. He has committed to play both baseball and football in-state at South Carolina.

OF

No player has improved his draft stock this spring as much as Goetzman has, who could sneak into the tail end of the first round, particularly to a team like the Rays that has multiple picks. His size stands out, with a tall and athletic build with plenty of room to add muscle mass over the next three to five years as he continues to mature. He has long legs and a high waist and long, graceful strides which will suit him better in the outfield than the infield, where he currently plays. He has very good speed that allows him to cover a lot of ground in the outfield, although his arm strength will likely never be better than average. He also has exciting power potential, giving him the always coveted speed and power combo. His swing needs work, as he can be pitched to, but he has already improved significantly this spring. It seems his rise will keep him away from Florida Gulf Coast as a likely selection in the top two rounds.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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