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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen 10-23-10

Welcome to the second Dandy Dozen made up of prospects eligible for the 2011 draft. Taylor Jungmann joins the players mentioned the first time this list was updated among those with a legitimate chance to go first overall next June. This lists boasts quite a few prep prospects, all of whom participated at the Aflac All-American Classic.

SP

Jungmann enjoyed immediate success as a freshman for the Longhorns, and so far is 19-6 during his collegiate career. He has very good size for a pitcher, with long legs and a strong base, giving him a good chance to log long innings over a season while maintaining his velocity deep into ballgames. His fastball sits in the low-90s with the ability to touch the mid-90s, and he spots the pitch very well. He values the importance of changing speeds and hitting his spots, and is able to add and subtract off of his breaking ball very well, throwing both a low-80s slider and more of a true upper-70s curveball. He can also mix in a changeup. An unsigned 24th round pick of the Angels out of high school, he couldn’t be signed away from Texas after participating in the 2007 Aflac All-American Classic, and now is among the candidates that could go first overall next June.

SP

While the 2010 draft lacked an impact, prep lefty, Norris would fit in very nicely with the 2009 class that included Tyler Matzek and Matt Purke. A very good overall athlete, Norris throws three solid to plus pitchers for strikes, highlighted by a fastball that he’s able to throw in the 92-94 and touch 96. The pitch has some dip and run to it at times, and he also throws both a big, slow curveball and a nice fading changeup. A good overall athlete, he uses a low three-quarters arm angle and repeats his delivery well, with good balance and poise on the mound. He upsets the timing of hitters well, and his stuff is difficult to catch up with. He joins Archie Bradley and Dylan Bundy to form a very solid prep trio of pitchers that could all be taken among the top 10 overall picks. Norris, as a lefty with the ability to touch 96, could be the best of that bunch. He reportedly has committed to Clemson.

SP

Few have a resume as impressive as Gray’s, who was a two-sport star in addition to being a two-way talent on the baseball diamond. As a quarterback, he led his high school’s football team to back-to-back state titles, and was his baseball team’s leading hitter and pitcher. He was named an Aflac All-American in high school, and has starred for Team USA each of the last two summers. He assumed the ace role during his sophomore season, picking up where Mike Minor left off the year before serving in the same role. As a freshman he was used mostly out of the bullpen, and notced five saves. With a smaller, compact frame and delivery, his approach is no-nonsense, as he attacks hitters with his best stuff: a fastball that sits in the 90-94 range and touches 96-97 and a low-80s hammer curveball. He can also throw a changeup, but he’s mostly a two-pitch pitcher. There isn’t much movement to his fastball, but his fearless, aggressive use of it makes it difficult to catch up with. His smaller stature is the biggest cause for concern, leading many to believe he be best used a a short reliever down the road.

CL

Zych arrived at Louisville known for his two-way skills and overall athleticism. He has played a little on the infield, and can hit the ball pretty well, but his future lies on the mound, and likely in a closer’s role moving forward. He can reach 97 with his fastball and sits in the 91-94 range, mixing in a very violent slider that explodes down and away from right-handed batters. His delivery is rather max effort, and would have to be cleaned up if any team wanted to take advantage of his athleticism and overall repertoire (he also throws a changeup) and groom him as a starter at the next level. His role changed seemingly from week-to-week during his first two years at Louisville, but is poised to take over the closer’s role now that Neil Holland has begun his professional career.

C

O’Brien, who enjoyed a big sophomore season at Bethune-Cookman, tore up the Collegiate National Team trials in early July and was selected to participate with Team USA last summer. He served as the team’s everyday catcher, and ended up leading the team in home runs (four) and slugging (.694) while finishing fourth in batting average (.306). His power is his best tool, and is among the best in the nation. When he connects the ball travels a long, long way and he proved last summer that he’s not just an all-or-nothing slugger. His approach does need work, as does his technique behind the plate defensively. He will need to stick behind the plate to maximize his value, making him a classic boom-or-bust type of prospect moving forward. Added experience is what he needs the most for him to flourish.

1B

Oropesa may be the left-handed hitting version of former Louisville Cardinal Chris Dominguez. Like Dominguez, Oropesa is built like an NFL linebacker, and also like Dominguez, when he’s not blasting balls over the fence, he’s striking out. He belted 22 doubles and 20 home runs as a sophomore while hitting .353. His power stroke continued on the Cape last summer, tying for the league lead in homers with seven. A former Aflac All-American in high school, Oropesa is a good overall athlete, he has played third base in the past but is likely restricted to first base moving forward, and is going to have to make significant adjustments in his swing and/or approach to become a consistently effective hitter as a professional. His power potential alone is special, and with another big season with some key improvements, he could give USC two potential first-round picks along with right-hander Austin Wood.

IF

Baez looks like a big-league player, with good size and strength, long limbs, sloped shoulders and plenty of room for added strength. He shows good bat speed with exciting offensive potential and the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. He has good to above average speed at this point in his career, but may lose a step as he continues to mature. Also, he is more of a long strider than a quick-twitch athlete, which may cause him to slider over to third base at the next level. He has more than enough arm strength to play third, and has enough foot speed to play a corner outfield spot shoul d he need to at the next level down the road. Physically he resembles Melvin Mora, and could project to have a similar career.

IF

Lopes has good size and proportions, and glides to balls easily as a middle infield. His athleticism also gives him very good versatility, with the ability to play anywhere on the infield and a strong arm. He has a quick, compact stroke with good bat speed, gap power and budding over-the-fence power potential. He hits from an open stance, and has the room to add more strength as he matures. Physically and as an infielder he projects similar to Baez as profiled above, and likely projects best at third base at the next level.

SS

Evans is similar to fellow former Aflac All-American Tony Wolters in that he’s a shorter middle infielder that plays the game hard and does the little things well. He has very good first-step quickness and overall instincts both on the basepaths and defensively. He shows soft hands and a strong throwing arm from the shortstop position. At the plate he shows a good eye and a quick, compact swing. The ball jumps off of his bat, and he has surprising over the fence power for a player his size. He has good strength in his frame, and has room for added strength as he matures into his early 20s. He has committed to play for Tony Gwynn at San Diego State.

OF

Scouts are split on Dickerson’s likelihood for future success. Some saw him as the second best hitter on the Cape last year to George Springer (also teammates on Team USA), and others think he has too many holes in his swing to succeed at the next level. He’s a big, strong left-handed hitter that has good bat speed and extension with loft power, and shows to make good in-game adjustments from one at-bat to the next. He finished seventh in the nation in both home runs (24) and slugging percentage (.805) last year while hitting .419. His swing can get long, and can be prone to strikeouts. Defensively, he’s a good overall athlete with decent foot speed, but may profile best at first base as opposed to an outfield corner.

OF

Flamion’s best attribute is his bat speed, with a lightning quick swing that gives him the ability to allow the bat to travel deep into the strike zone and catch up with the best stuff. His overall swing mechanics need work, as he needs to learn to incorporate his lower half better, but he could develop into one of the best pure hitters available for next year’s draft. He has gap power with the potential to hit 15-20 home runs a year as he continues to fill out his lanky yet wiry strong frame. He has good, not great speed and a good, not great arm in the outfield. He also pitches with the ability to reach the upper-80s with solid secondary pitches, and he also excels on the football field. He has committed to play for Oregon.

OF

Tobias currently playing the middle infield, but his size and tools may best be suited in the outfield. Overall he is a dynamic play-maker, with surprising pop in his bat for his size and good speed. He is a switch hitter that won the home run derby at the Perfect Game National Showcase home run derby at Tropicana Field. With strong forearms and wrists, he has very good bat speed and the ball explodes off of his bat. He has a good burst of speed giving him the ability to cover a lot of range in the outfield while also making him a threat on the basepaths. Given his smaller, compact frame and exciting sparkplug combination of power and speed, he is sure to draw some comparisons to Kirby Puckett. He has committed to play for the University of Florida.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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