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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen 1-20-11

With this most recent edition of the Dandy Dozen, there are now 72 scouting reports available on the top prospects eligible for the 2011 draft. Brian Goodwin's decision to transfer to Miami-Dade College has been the biggest development since the last update. If you haven't done so already, be sure to check out how I have the top 100 prospects at this point in time. The final draft order and a new mock draft will be released as soon as Felipe Lopez signs.

The next edition of the Dandy Dozen will be an all-pitching version, likely to be revealed in mid-February prior to the beginning of the college baseball season.

SP

Maples has a quick and electric power arm with a strong, compact stature that makes his overall profile somewhat similar to fellow draft-eligible prep fireballer Dylan Bundy. He has a short-armed delivery, but is able to pump his fastball up to the mid-90s, sitting in the low-90s while offering a little late movement to the pitch. His best pitch may be a power curve that is thrown in the upper-70s to low-80s. The pitch tends to flatten out a little the harder he throws it, offering more break when thrown a touch slower. It is a nasty offering when he snaps them off as well as he’s capable, with velocity and a hard, true curveball break. Once he finds more consistency with that pitch, and a little better fastball command, he could evolve into a true power pitcher. He can throw a changeup, but hasn’t had to given the success of his two best pitches. There is some effort to his delivery, and overall he reminds me a little of Matt Harvey at a similar stage in his career. Like Harvey, Maples has committed to play for North Carolina. He also participated at the Aflac All-American Classic, and is yet another of several power arms from the high school ranks that could be drafted in the first round this coming June.

SP

Garvin made the most of his time spent on the Cape last summer, being named the circuit’s most valuable pitcher, going 5-0 and leading the league with a 0.74 ERA. He is part of a stacked Vanderbilt pitching staff that will return their entire weekend rotation from a year ago that included potential first-round picks Sonny Gray and Jack Armstrong as well as senior Taylor Hill. That depth made starts hard to come by for Garvin, who was used largely in a relief role last spring, and will also make starts hard to come by this coming season. That said, he could fit in nicely as a mid-week starter, and a strong option for a weekend starting role should any of the other three falter and/or suffer an injury. Garvin offers a tall, projectable presence on the mound, although he is more of prototypical finesse lefty that commands an upper-80s fastball well. That pitch can touch the low-90s on occasion, and has little bit of late sinking action to it. He also throws a loopy curveball, although his arm can slow down when tossing this pitch, and also can throw a changeup. With a big leg kick as part of his delivery, he has the tendency to land a little stiff and upright on his follow through. While his upside is limited, his command and repertoire should allow him to have success at the next level, as he follows in the footsteps of other Vanderbilt left-handed pitchers that includes Jeremy Sowers and David Price.

SP

McCreery is the definition of ‘high-risk, high reward.’ A 6’8” left-hander that oozes with potential and projectability, McCreery is a player that scouts are excited to see this spring. His super-tall stature makes it a little difficult for him to keep all of those moving parts together, with inconsistent release points and mechanics overall. He is still growing into his body, and is definitely going to add some strength over the next several years. He’s far from rail thin, and has some good present strength to his stature. His fastball velocity has improved, and is expected to continue to improve with a very easy arm action, even if that arm action isn’t consistent. He pitches mostly in the upper-80s now, but has touched the low-90s, and is expected to be pitching consistently in the low-90s while touching the mid to upper-90s very soon. There is promise with his secondary offerings, but like his delivery and mechanics they are inconsistent at this stage in his development. He has thrown a curveball, slider and changeup, so again, there is reason to be excited about his overall repertoire. How quickly he pulls it all together will be key for his draft status for next year. If he’s not quite there yet this coming spring, he may choose to attend Arizona State to continue his development.

UT

Lamb has been a productive player at the college level as both a hitter and as a pitcher. He has a tall, lanky build with room for added strength, and already has shown a smooth left-handed swing and a keen eye at the plate. He has some range in the outfield, and enough speed on the bases to be considered a stolen base threat, although his ceiling is somewhat limited as a positional prospect since his swing is tailored more for line drives to the gaps than raw power. On the mound he has a smooth and easy arm action with good command of both a fastball and a changeup. His upper-80s fastball that touches the low-90s shows good, late darting movement and his fading change complements his heater well, thrown with the same arm speed and angle. He needs to develop his curveball better, as the consistency on the release and the break on the pitch could use some work, but the potential is there for three solid offerings. Assuming a starting role for the Tigers this spring may be the perfect opportunity for Lamb to hone his craft on the mound while putting all of the pieces together.

C

Gallagher offers a very impressive, physical build for a high school senior, with broad shoulders and a sturdy yet proportional overall frame. He is a good athlete given how physically mature he is, and moves well for his size. His quickness is probably better than his straight-line speed, and he shows good defensive instincts behind the plate. He blocks balls when and has a rocket for an arm with a quick release. His power profile continues at the plate as well, as he can put a charge to the ball with a pull approach, sending rockets to left field. He has very strong hands giving him good bat speed with good extension as well. For as large as he is, he is short and quick to the ball. His swing can get long at times, and he can get fooled by offspeed stuff. He tends to pull most of what he sees, making him more of a dead-red fastball hitter. Gallagher’s promise led to him being named to the Aflac All-American team where his tools and skills displayed really well among the best players in the nation. He has committed to play for East Carolina, and both he and Derek Fisher give the state of Pennsylvania two legitimate early round prospects for this year’s draft.

1B

You can’t miss Vogelbach on a baseball field, with a shorter yet incredibly strong, compact build and proportions that are similar to Prince Fielder. Due to that, conditioning will always be a concern with Vogelbach moving forward, and defensively he’s probably limited to first base, and may fit best with an American League club due to the presence of the designated hitter. Aside from those concerns, few players hit the ball as consistently well as he does, showing great natural strength as a left-handed hitter with a disciplined approach at the plate. Vogelbach’s power is to all fields, recently rising up draft charts for his ability to hit rockets to both deep left, center and right field. He makes consistent solid, hard contact, and has a knack for squaring up the ball on the barrel. His plate coverage is strong, and he rarely swings at pitches he can’t hit hard. You can probably guess that he’s far from a burner, but he does run well underway. Between Fielder, Jack Cust and Jaff Decker, there are plenty of comparisons to point to of players that have succeeded at the next level despite a less than ideal physical stature. He has committed to play for the Florida Gators, where he could step in to replace a similar prospect from the college level, Preston Tucker, should he go that route.

IF

The big-bodied Vollmuth enjoyed a huge sophomore season at Southern Miss, hitting .386/.490/.729 with 20 home runs. He also committed 25 errors at the shortstop position, although many already felt that he was a candidate to slide over to third base at the next level given his size. While he doesn’t have the ideal range at shortstop, he has the lateral quickness and arm strength to successfully handle a move to the hot corner, and a team may be inclined to allow him to begin his professional career at short. At the plate he has a big, aggressive swing, although he does employ a patient approach at the plate. While he’s capable of drawing walks, he also can rack up some big strikeout totals. He hit well on the Cape the summer after his freshman year, but struggled to make contact with a wood bat during his second tour last summer, leading many to question his potential at the next level. Another big season at the plate may help quiet some of those concerns. Physically he resembles Troy Tulowitzki, even if he doesn’t possess the same kind of glovework, and is strong enough to catch up with good fastballs to muscle them out of the park.

3B

Cole is an impressive physical specimen, whose chiseled body type, size and tools are somewhat similar to Jason Esposito, currently playing third base for Vanderbilt. He has very good present day strength with room for even more over the next three to five years as he continues to mature. Given that strength, he still has good quickness, although there is some question as to whether he can stick at the hot corner down the road. His arm fits for the position, and all of his other tools also fit, but he has played the outfield as well and may be a better fit defensively down the road in right field. He has average straight-line speed, and while he’s not a big stolen base threat, he runs the bases well. He has the potential at the plate to be an asset no matter where he plays, with explosive bat speed and overall offensive potential. He’s a natural in a run-producing role, although most of his power is to the pull side at this stage of his career. He has committed to play for the University of Georgia, and is part of a very impressive group of draft-eligible players from South Carolina.

SS

Story is an exciting athlete who has plenty of room to grow into his current wiry strong frame. Currently he is thin through the waist and in his lower half, but he is broad through the shoulders, leading many to believe he will continue to add strength and muscle mass to his body over the next three to five years. His best tool may be his arm strength, with a cannon for an arm at the shortstop position, and he has good, although not great speed. He moves well defensively, and exhibits soft hands but there is some concern that he may eventually out-grow the position. At the plate he makes hard contact with some gap-to-gap power at this point in time and a little bit of home run pop. His swing can get long and he’s prone to swinging at breaking stuff low and away, but there is more to come from him offensively as he gets bigger and stronger and is able to hit the ball with more authority more consistently. His bat speed could also improve as he improves the strength in his hands, wrists and forearms. He stood out last summer at the Area Code Games, and has committed to play for perennial college powerhouse LSU.

OF

Coats has been consistently improving his standing as one of the better hitters available for the 2011 draft. He hit well during his freshman year at TCU before leading the Horned Frogs in batting on their way to a College World Series berth last season. He carried his success from the season to Omaha and onto a summer spent on the Cape where he hit .314/.379/.488. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, those numbers would have been good enough for fifth in the league in hitting and second in slugging. He returns as the best hitter to a team that has lofty expectations for the season, with many picking TCU as the preseason favorites to win it all this coming year. At the plate he shows an aggressive approach with gap-to-gap power and emerging home run power potential. He has good bat speed, but will need to refine his approach somewhat to work the count better, get on base and reduce his strikeouts. His arm strength and foot speed are average, likely limiting him to left field, although at the position he profiles favorably to Jason Bay as an offensive-minded corner outfielder.

OF

Goodwin was a two-sport star (football) and potential first-round pick coming out of high school, with an exciting blend of speed and some power, making him a true five-tool athlete. He was named the MVP of the 2008 Aflac All-American Classic while showing off those game-changing tools, but his in-state commitment to North Carolina caused him to slip to the 17th round of the 2009 draft. He was named academically ineligible for his sophomore season, which prompted him to transfer to junior college powerhouse Miami-Dade College, making him draft-eligible for this year’s draft. During his freshman year for the Tar Heels, he showed a patient approach at the plate that led to some lofty walk and strikeout totals, consistently working deep in the count. He has an aggressive swing with budding power potential, and led the Tar Heels in RBI hitting fifth for most of the season. He may be a candidate to lead off, with good speed and his patient eye, and overall profiles in a similar fashion to Jared Mitchell. A left-handed hitter, he needs to improve hitting against left-handed pitchers, and will also need to reduce the number of strikeouts, as his speed allows him to make a difference when the ball is put in play. He has enough speed to make a difference both on the basepaths and in the outfield, where he also possesses a strong throwing arm.

OF

Gaedele has freak-ish athletic talent, built like an NFL safety with legitimate five-tool talent that has led to some comparisons to Jeff Francoeur. He has performed very well in his two seasons at Valparaiso, and really made a name for himself in regards to his draft standing by continuing to hit the ball well with a wood bat in the Northwoods League last summer. He batted .315/.380/.498 with 26 steals in 28 attempts during that time, finishing tied for second in home runs with nine and third in triples with five while starring in the league’s all-star game and home run derby. Those numbers give you a good idea of his skill set, with good bat speed, power potential and enough speed to stretch extra-base hits while also serving as a threat on the basepaths. He’s a perfect fit for right field, with good range in the outfield and a strong throwing arm. There are some holes in his swing, and he has the tendency to get over-aggressive at the plate, leading to higher strikeout totals. The level of competition he will face this coming spring won’t be the greatest gauge of how his numbers project to the next level, but it is easy to dream with his stature and overall athleticism.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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