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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen 1-3-11

Happy New Year! It's time for another Dandy Dozen looking ahead to some of the more talented players eligible for the 2011 MLB draft, as 5 Tool Talk now has 60 scouting reports available for your reading pleasure. The college baseball season is just over a month away, and the high school baseball season in some parts of the nation will also be underway soon, meaning we don't have too much longer to wait for more baseball.

SP

Meyer looks as though he belongs on the Wildcats basketball team, with a tall yet lean frame and long limbs. He continues to fill out his frame, and for how big he is, he is a good overall athlete, and he has added a few inches since his senior year in high school. With a lightning-quick arm, he offers a very good one-two punch with a fastball that sits in the 93-95 range and frequently touches 96-97 early in games. The pitch has some late boring action to it at times, making it that much more difficult to hit, much less hit hard. His slider may be the better of the two pitches, with nasty two-plane break that sits in the low-90s with the ability to hit 85-86. Those two pitches lead many to believe Meyer could at worse succeed as a closer should he fail as a starter, something he doesn’t have to worry about for some time, although he does need to develop his changeup. His size allows him to maintain his velocity fairly deep into games, although he is going to have to continue to work on his control to pitch more effectively. He also needs to pace his delivery and overall tempo better at times. There is some fiery competitiveness to his persona on the mound, but he does a good job staying relatively poised. Last season started a little rough, and then he missed several weeks in the middle of the season due to mononucleosis. An Aflac All-American in high school, Meyer was a potential first-round pick that turned down early-round money from the Red Sox after falling to the 20th rounder of the 2008 draft. The potential is there for him to be a premium pick and overall talent, but he will need to be more consistently dominant during his junior year.

SP

Montgomery stands out from a crowd rather quickly, with a thick, husky build. He has a barrel chest and strong limbs with a sturdy lower half. That unique body type will make conditioning an issue for him moving forward, but he has shown the ability to keep his physique toned already in high school. His body gives him very good durability with the projected ability to sustain long innings. He has a special arm, with the ability to routinely sit around 91-94 and can touch the 96-98 range. His curveball has the potential to be a plus pitch as well, with a sharp break to it when he’s snapping them off as well as he can. His changeup needs work but has enough foundation to be effective for him down the road. He also has some work to do polishing up his mechanics and making them more consistent, which is somewhat tied into the importance of keeping up with his conditioning. As a bid-bodied, fire-balling righty, he compares favorably to someone like Bartolo Colon. He was an Aflac All-American, but did not perform in game action.

SP

Mooneyham is a tough prospect to get a good read on. He has good size and stuff, particularly for a left-handed pitcher, but he is terribly inconsistent. He has a tall and stocky strong build, and his stuff is plenty good enough to miss bats. His fastball sits in the low-90s with the ability to reach the 93-95 range frequently. Some days both his curveball and his changeup look like great secondary offerings, some days they come and go and some days he struggled to get a feel for anything past his fastball. When he is forced to throw his fastball more often he has the tendency to overthrow and struggle to command the strike zone. His arm also slows down when throwing his curve and change, something he will need to work on to make both pitches less recognizable out of the hand. When all of his pitches are working for him he can be unhittable. His changeup can be a very polished pitch, and his fastball can have some running life away from right-handed batters. His curve is his second best pitch at this stage, with more of a sweeping action than a big bender. The times I have seen him pitch it seems to be the biggest thing he needs to learn is patience, setting up hitters from pitch to pitch and batter to batter rather than trying to blow everyone away on every throw. He is visibly cocky/confident on the mound and was a potential first-round pick coming out of high school. His Stanford commitment and a reported affiliation with Scott Boras caused him to be college bound.

UT

Cave presents an interesting problem moving forward, as he is a legitimate two-way talent that could excel as both a left-handed pitcher and as an outfielder, similar in talents to big-league outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Cave has an athletic build and a competitive spirit on the field. He plays the game hard and doesn’t give in easily to pressure or the opposition. As a hitter he shows good bat speed and extension, with a pronounced bat waggle as he stands in the batter’s box. He has the ability to drive the ball to the gaps with the potential for more over the fence power down the road. As a pitcher he hides the ball well out of his hand as part of a somewhat rushed, over the top delivery. He has the ability to sit in the low-90s and commands his fastball quite well. He can throw a pretty good changeup as well thrown with the exact arm speed and angle as his fastball, making it a very difficult pitch to identify when he’s spotting his fastball. He can also throw a curveball, although at this stage it is his third-best pitch and needs to be tightened up to be a more effective, consistent offering. In a much improved class for left-handed pitchers, he could be among the best available, and is drawing favorable reviews from scouts as a potential first-round pick. He pitched and played centerfield for the East squad of the Aflac All-American game, and has committed to play for LSU.

C

Hedges’ arm strength stands out among his toolset, with that alone making him a talented backstop. He is very gifted defensively with the perfect focus and desire behind the plate. He shows good leadership abilities, catching some of the best arms in the nation, including those at the Aflac All-American Classic. He has a quick release with good accuracy on throws down to second base, and also has good overall quickness and footwork. At the plate he employs a no-nonsense approach and a short compact swing. He has pretty good bat speed, and is able to drive good fastballs to the gaps. There is some home run potential to his swing and the potential for added strength in his frame as he matures. He is a good overall athlete with a slightly square build and sloped shoulders that runs well for a catcher. He has committed to play for UCLA.

IF

Wright enjoyed a huge season a year ago as a sophomore (.366/.481/.667, 16 home runs, 80 RBI), playing second base exclusively for the Cardinals. He hit well during his freshman season as well in which he was used as a utility player, appearing in each and every game of the season, just doing so all over the field. Those efforts were rewarded with a spot on Team USA last summer, where he finished second on the team, and first among the starting regulars with a .361 batting average. Wright is a sum of the parts type of player, in that he doesn’t have any tools that jump out at you, but he does everything well. And everything he does well is complemented by his instincts and overall hard-working approach to the game. He is a natural team leader, and is the type of player that seemingly can will himself to success. Due to the lack of eye-popping tools there are still questions about his upside. He lacks ideal range for the middle infield, he doesn’t have enough power for the infield, or outfield, corners, he’s not fast enough to play centerfield and his arm isn’t strong enough to try him behind the plate. That leads many to believe that his best fit may be similar to how he was used for both Team USA last summer and during his freshman year at Louisville, in a utility role. Wherever he ends up, he still remains a better bet to succeed given his knack to come up with big hits at the plate.

IF

Miller is a solid all-around athlete, with good athleticism and a keen eye from the left side of the plate. He currently plays shortstop for the Tigers, but scouts question whether he will be able to stick there, a question that existed prior to him committing 32 errors last year as a sophomore. He has solid range, soft hands and a strong enough throwing arm, but he lacks the ideal, explosive tools that some of the game’s best shortstops possess. That said, he should be able to slide across to second base without any problems, or even move over to third should his bat continue to progress. Last season he did enjoy a big season at the plate, hitting .357 with 31 extra-base hits. He then led Team USA with a .441 batting average playing part-time in a utility role. He has enough power to reach double digits in home runs, but is more of a gap-to-gap hitter that should hit his fair share of doubles. He runs the bases well, but he isn’t much of a threat to steal bases. He profiles in a similar fashion to former Clemson Tiger Bill Spiers.

3B

At this time three years ago, many believed that Martinez would be a premium pick coming out of high school. A former Aflac All-American, he fell to the 19th round of the 2008 draft and decided to honor his commitment to Miami. Even then his physical tools were extremely evident, with a tall, rangy strong body, and he has already moved off of shortstop as many scouts felt he would. He has since settled in at third base, where he has more than enough of a throwing arm and gliding, athletic actions. If he can’t stick in the infield, he has enough speed and overall athleticism to easily handle the transition to the outfield. At the plate he is an aggressive hitter with great extension and bat speed. His swing can get long, making him prone to strikeouts, a trade-off most would be willing to make given his exciting power potential. He isn’t afraid to go behind in the count, and will crush mistakes. He slugged 21 home runs a year ago, but batted below .300 (.295). Should his average rise this coming season while maintaining his power, he could enjoy a rise up draft boards similar to the one his former teammate, Yasmani Grandal, enjoyed last season.

SS

Of the infielders listed in this edition of the Dandy Dozen, Panik has the best chance to stick at the shortstop position. Similar to players such as Brad Miller, Ryan Wright and Levi Michael, Panik isn’t the flashiest of players, with good, not great athleticism, he is solid across the board. He has a modest, square athletic build with long rangy limbs. He has good range in both directions and makes strong accurate throws to first base. He consistently picks the ball cleanly and makes good relay throws to second. At the plate his best asset is his incredibly patient eye and bat control. In two seasons at St. John’s, he has an impressive 67 to 33 walk to strikeout ratio, and carried that over to last summer on the Cape (20 to 12). He has a line drive approach at the plate with enough power to drive the ball to the gaps while lifting over a few for home runs. He runs the bases well, although he’s not a burner, and overall shows good instincts in most facets of the game. His upside is limited, but his glove alone should allow him to succeed and progress at the next level.

OF

Cone is a talented and sculpted overall athlete, with a strong, muscular and proportionate build that somewhat resembles Albert Pujols physically. He also carries himself with a similar confident swagger. Very good bat speed, foot speed and his arm strength stand out among his five-tool potential. At times he looks very natural in centerfield, taking good routes and covering good ground running to spots to make the catch, although he may be a better, natural fit in right with a power/power profile. At the plate he’s an aggressive swinger that needs to learn the value of working the count better than he does. When he connects the ball can travel a long way thanks to his bat speed and natural strength, and he has the speed to stretch extra base hits to the gaps. He was a coveted prospect coming out of high school, and part of a talented Georgia recruiting class when he opted not to sign with the Angels after being selected in the third round of the 2008 draft. He has the talent to be a perennial star, but he needs to make significant adjustments at the plate while addressing a few holes in his swing to reach that potential.

OF

Smith’s father of the same name played in the big-leagues for eight seasons, and Dwight Jr. is a very similar athlete and overall player. He currently is one of the most polished, pure hitters at the high school level, and consistently puts together impressive rounds of batting practice and live in-game action. In addition, he also has proven to hit some of the best pitchers in the country at national tournament and showcase events. He has an excellent approach and can drive the ball to all parts of the field with a quick, compact stroke. A left-handed hitter, there is some home run power to his swing, but he will likely be more of a doubles hitter at the next level. He has very good bat speed and strength in his hands, wrists and forearms, and uses a pronounced leg kick as a timing mechanism. He’s a good, not great overall athlete with good speed. He likely projects to play left field at the next level as his arm strength is average and he doesn’t have the wheels to cover ground in center. His throws from the outfield do show good carry and accuracy. He is somewhat of a ‘tweener in that he projects to hit for a high average with some pop, but may not have the desired power teams look for from a corner outfielder. He has committed to play for Georgia Tech.

OF

Mahtook is an exciting athlete that excelled in multiple sports in high school. He came to LSU rather raw, but has shown the aptitude to make adjustments early in his college career, allowing him to become a regular in the Tigers’ outfield during his freshman season when LSU won the College World Series. While he has shown a better approach at the plate than expected, with the ability to go with a pitch and drive the ball up the middle and to the opposite field, he does have some holes in his swing he’ll need to tighten up to be successful at the next level. His athleticism gives him legitimate five-tool potential, and his power output increased significantly from his freshman year to his sophomore year. He has the speed to cover ground in the outfield, steal bases and stretch extra base hits. He has shown solid instincts in centerfield with an average throwing arm. He profiles as a more athletic version of Aaron Rowand.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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