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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen 9-19-10

Here’s my first take on the Dandy Dozen, looking ahead to some of the top prospects eligible for the 2011 draft. Of the players listed below, Gerrit Cole, Matt Purke, Anthony Rendon and George Springer are all currently legitimate candidates to go first overall next June.

SP

Cole, who was selected in the first round of the 2008 draft by the Yankees but decided to honor his commitment to UCLA, throws gas, consistently working 94-98 in the early innings, while also throwing a slider that can reach the upper-80s. It’s easy to say his arm is electric, and it’s not as though he’s max effort, as his command has improved significantly over the past year. One common concern coming out of high school was that he may have to move to relief as a pro with somewhat of a max effort delivery. I don’t see that concern, and I didn’t see it when I got to see him, albeit briefly, in high school. He also can throw both a sinking two-seamer and a changeup, but for the most part works off of his fastball-slider one-two punch. He has done a better job rounding out his repertoire and commanding the strike zone, particularly given how hard he thows. He needs to continue to work on his command, and also needs to improve his endurance, not only through a single game, but through an entire season. Advised by Scott Boras coming out of high school, Cole is good enough that he’ll get paid like the first overall pick even if he doesn’t go first overall.

SP

In watching Bradley it’s impossible to not be immediately impressed by his size and strength. He has the build of a workhorse, and it’s not surprising that he is also a very talented football recruit who has committed to play for Oklahoma as both a quarterback and as a pitcher. His build and profile remind me of Chad Hutchinson’s at a similar stage in his career. Hutchinson went on to have a solid two-sport career at Stanford, even if his professional sports career didn’t match the lofty expectations that followed him. With a big leg kick yet balanced delivery, Bradley could be defined as “country strong,” pumping his fastball in the 88-93 range with the ability to touch 95/96. He also throws a sharp-breaking knuckle-curve, giving him two legitimate strikeout pitches. I like how his success is predicated off his fastball, establishing his heater early to allow him to use whatever else he chooses to throw at a hitter to get them out. It’s a fearless, confident approach, and I really like this young man’s chances to succeed moving forward, although signing him away from Oklahoma, and football, will take a significant financial investment.

SP

The first thing that stands out watching Purke is his moxie on the mound, as he cocks his cap to one side, wears sports goggles and springs off the mound as an inning comes to an end. He wears his emotions on his sleeve, and you can tell he is completely comfortable on the mound, and raises his game as the situation calls for it. I’ll call is a quirky confidence. His delivery isn’t the cleanest, as he snaps his head a little and there is some effort overall, but he locates his fastball, which has some nice life, and his slider well. His fastball routinely sits in the 88-92 range with the ability to touch 94-95. His slider is a swing-and-miss pitch, and he commands it well getting batters fishing in the dirt. He’s a lot of fun to watch because it’s clear he simply gets it, knowing how to disrupt hitters timing and setting the tempo of the game. He’s aggressive and fearless on the mound, attacking hitters and never backing down, and likely could succeed at the big-league level right now if he were called upon. An unsigned first-round pick out of high school in the 2009 draft, he’s draft-eligible as a sophomore, and is one of about three or four players that could be in the discussion for the first overall pick.

UT

While Starling’s talents were well known entering last summer, no player moved up draft boards as much as he did. He was one of the main topics of conversation at the Area Code Games, showing his five-tool talents as an outfielder and his power arm on the mound. Scouts remain split on where his talents best suit him, either as a right-handed pitcher or in centerfield, and that all depends on whether or not he honors his football commitment to Nebraska as an exciting option quarterback. Whatever his decision, he looks the part, with a tall, well proportioned athletic frame. At the plate he puts a serious charge in the ball, with great bat speed and strength. He is aggressive and doesn’t get cheated, although that doesn’t mean he is undisciplined. On the mound, he sits in the upper-80s to low-90s with his fastball, and has approached the mid-90s with the potential for greater and sustained velocity. His heater also has a little run and dip to it. He also has the ability to snap off some really nice 75-77 curveballs. Many aspects of his game need to be fine-tuned, particularly his delivery should he remain on the mound, but that’s to be expected since he hasn’t focused entirely on baseball yet.

C

Swihart’s approach at the plate can be described as effortless and no-nonsense. It starts with a patient and confident approach, knowing what he wants to hit and hit hard and laying off what he doesn’t. The bat speed is obvious, using a quick, easy swing in which the ball jumps off his bat, and he has proven that he can hit the best pitchers in the nation and catch up with the best fastballs. He runs pretty well for a catcher, and shows good quickness behind the plate with a strong arm, leading many to believe that he should be able to stick at the position. If not, or if a team chooses to fast-track his bat, he could move to third base or even an outfield corner. He very well may be the best pure hitter not named Anthony Rendon available for next June’s draft. As an athletic, switch-hitting catcher, Victor Martinez is an easy comparison for this Texas recruit.

1B

Camarena has considerable baseball talent as both a positional player and as a pitcher, but it is his swing in the batter’s box that really catches my eye. There are some young players that I have watched over the years that I feel just ‘get it,’ and Camarena is one of those hitters. He’s a lefty with good size and obvious bat speed with plenty of physical projection left for added strength. He looks like a hitter with sloped shoulders and very good extension in his swing, and reminded me a little of fellow San Diegon (for you Anchorman fans) Adrian Gonzalez. Camarena shows the ability to hit the ball with back-spin and carry, giving him promising power potential. On the mound as a left-handed pitcher he throws in the upper-80s, with the ability to touch the low-90s, with a big, slow curveball. He currently plays a corner outfield spot, but he looks like a natural at first base. He has committed to play for the University of San Diego, where he likely would be allowed to play as both a hitter and pitcher similar to Josh Romanski from a few years ago.

2B

Wong was a member of the Team USA trials, and while he didn’t make the final cut, he returned to the Cape where he put up big numbers on his way to being named the league’s MVP. He showed a diverse tool-set, finishing second in on-base percentage (.426), tied for second in stolen bases (22) third in hitting (.341), and fourth in slugging (.452). He shows a very good eye at the plate and isn’t afraid to work with two strikes. His short, compact yet strong swing matches his stature, as his size and overall game is very reminiscent to that of Carlos Baerga. Wong also employs a big leg kick as a timing mechanism, but doesn’t appear to get homer happy, knowing to work to his strengths by hitting line drives from gap-to-gap. He also looks very comfortable at second base with good range in both directions, and has played centerfield for Hawaii in the past. His upside is limited, but he consistently gets the job done, and doing so against advanced competition in the Cape improved his draft standing.

3B

Rendon’s enthusiasm playing the game is evident, as he makes everything look easy and it appears as though he was born to play the sport. His bat is his best tool, with a quick and direct swing path in which the ball jumps off of his bat. He has very strong hands and wrists with excellent bat speed, and while he isn’t built like a prototypical masher, he has hit 46 home runs during his first two years at Rice. He also drew 65 walks last year, a testament of his patience and mastery of the strike zone, versus only 22 strikeouts. As good as his bat is, he may be just as good defensively, making the hot corner look extremely easy. He uses good footwork, soft hands and a strong arm to make all the plays, and his well-rounded tools at the position has drawn some comparisons to Ryan Zimmerman. He broke his ankle last summer playing for Team USA, but plenty of other top prospects have suffered injuries entering their draft-eligible season (Mark Teixeira, Pedro Alvarez, Christian Colon) without missing a beat. Rendon remains a favorite to be selected among the top two to three overall picks, and possibly first overall.

SS

Lindor is another player that looks as though he was born to play the sport, bringing grace, ease and enthusiasm to the game that makes him a pleasure to watch. He has a lean, smaller frame, but there is room to add some strength, and there is more power to his swing than what one may expect. However, while he did win the home run derby as part of the Aflac All-American Classic festivities, I’m sure he would be the first to admit that he’s not a power hitter. He is a switch hitter though, and is short to the ball with gap-to-gap power. He’s very good defensively, with excellent range to both directions, soft hands and a strong arm. He has good, not great speed, giving him five-tool potential and making him a threat on the basepaths once he reaches. He has committed to play for Florida State, and currently is projected to be selected among the top 10 to 20 overall picks in the 2011 draft.

OF

As a high schooler, Harrison looks like a brute. There is some Matt Williams to his overall build and gait, although Harrison isn’t quite that athletic. He currently plays third base, and shows good arm strength for the position, but likely fits best in either left field or at first base at the next level. He has some pretty big hands and forearms along with a mature, somewhat barrel-chested build, and he looks somewhat like a throw-back, and chooses not to wear batting gloves. The power in his swing is obvious, using his big frame and strong forearms and wrists to punish the baseball. He has enough strength to muscle balls through the infield even if he doesn’t hit them cleanly, and he put on a show at the home run derby as part of the Aflac All-American Classic. He also shows a good overall approach at the plate, and should be able to hit for average as well as power. He may be the best, pure power prospect, and one of the better overall hitters, eligible for the 2011 draft.

OF

Bradley quietly opened the 2010 season as one of the top prospects eligible for the 2011 draft, coming off of a strong summer in ’09 playing on the Cape after his his freshman year in college. He ended the spring loudly, garnering College World Series MVP honors as the Gamecocks secured their first national championship. He is a potential five-tool athlete that has good, not great speed and a very strong throwing arm. He has very good bat speed and budding power potential, swatting two home runs in Omaha and 13 overall on the season, although he likely will never be a huge power threat. He also walked (41 times) more times than he struck out (37), a good indication of how well he manages the strike zone. He is also one of the best defensive players available for next year’s draft, and could soar through the minors given his overall polish. He profiles to hit anywhere first through third in a big-league lineup, although he doesn’t possess prototypical game-changing speed to lead off. His ability to get on base could make up for that and then some, and his knack for the big hit will serve him well wherever he hits.

OF

Springer hit the ground running upon beginning his collegiate career at UConn, and a strong freshman season led to him being named the Big East Freshman of the Year in 2009. He was one of the best 2011 draft eligible players to play on the Cape the summer after his freshman year, and followed that up with a strong summer and sophomore year in between. This past summer he played for the Cape before becoming a regular with the Team USA Collegiate National team. He is a true five-tool talent whose polish comes in to question at times, but he continues to improve in all facets of his game. He has excellent bat speed with the ability to hit for both average and power. He also has very good foot speed, making him a threat on the basepaths and giving him good range in the outfield. His arm strength is also a plus tool, and while he could play centerfield long-term, he may be a better fit in right. He is gaining momentum as a possibility for the first overall pick, and another big year for the Huskies should cement his status as a top three to five overall pick for next June.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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