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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen 12-12-10

There’s not much baseball being played these days, but several high school players helped distinguish themselves at the Perfect Game/WWBA World Championships in late October. Jose Fernandez, as profiled in the last Dandy Dozen, was up to 97 and sat in the mid-90s. Shortstop Julius Gaines was already on my list among those most likely to soar up draft charts, and he may no longer qualify since it appears as though he has already done so. Outfielder Derek Fisher was impressive all summer long, and put an exclamation point on the year with a strong performance in Jupiter. Fellow outfielder Josh Bell did the same. All three hitters are profiled below, as well as another relative unknown yet rising commodity, Charlie Tilson.

SP

Stephenson is built long and lean, with wiry strong, athletic proportions and a build that is tapered through the waist. His delivery has drawn comparisons to Doc Gooden’s in that there is a little bit of effort, but it is fast, repeatable, and the ball explodes out of his hand. There is plenty of room for added velocity as he continues to mature and add strength, and he currently throws comfortably in the low-90s with the ability to touch the mid-90s. He is able to take a little off of his fastball for added late sinking movement in the upper-80s. His slurvy curveball is another potential plus pitch with sharp break usually thrown in the upper-70s, and he can take a little off of this pitch as well to make it act more like a true, slow curve. He also throws a changeup, but needs more experience with it. An Aflac All-American, he started the 2010 game for the West squad, and has committed to play for the University of Washington.

SP

Howard is an experienced power pitcher who has been throwing in the low-90s for several years. His mature, athletic frame continues to add strength, to the point where he now could be labeled as “country-strong.” His fastball sits in the low-90s and he routinely touches 95 in game situations. He can blow batters away with his fastball, and also adds a second plus power pitch in his true slider. This pitch is consistently thrown in the low-80s with nasty two-plane break. When both pitches are working for him he hasn’t had to use his changeup much, but he can throw one that gives him at worst a solid third pitch. He was selected to perform at the Aflac All-American Classic, but didn’t play since he took part at the Connie Mack World Series the days leading up to the Aflac game. He continued to pitch well in Jupiter, and is entrenched as one of the top high school pitchers available for the 2011 draft, and a likely first-round pick. He has committed in-state to play for Arkansas.

SP

Anderson was inserted as a weekend starter for the Ducks during his freshman year, eventually settling in the Saturday role before taking over Friday ace responsibilities last spring. After a successful sophomore season, he was invited to play for Team USA last summer. Anderson is somewhat of a sum-of-his-parts type of pitcher, although that isn’t meant to unfairly label him as a finesse lefty. He throws four pitches for strikes, the success of which are predicated off of an upper-80s to low-90s fastball that he commands very well. Nothing stands out too much from his curve, slider and changeup, other than the fact that he is at his best when he’s changing speeds and moving the ball around the strike zone. He is competitive and poised on the mound, and does a good job recording outs early in the count by pitching to contact, an approach that may serve him even better at the next level. He could sneak into the first round, and possibly be taken earlier than expected given his polish, similar to Mike Minor.

CL

Stilson was one of the most difficult pitchers to hit last spring, and he led Division I baseball in ERA (0.80) among those that qualified. He allowed only seven earned runs and recorded 10 saves in 33 appearances, all in an expanded relief role, with a gaudy 114 to 23 strikeout to walk ratio in 79 innings of work. Using a short-armed delivery, Stilson regularly dials his fastball in the mid-90s with the ability to touch the upper-90s. His best pitch is a slider that is difficult to identify out of his hand, only to break hard, down and away from right-handed batters. He can also throw a changeup, but his somewhat max effort delivery likely relegates him to relief. A gifted overall athlete, Stilson also plays infield and hits for the Aggies, although his future is clearly in short relief. His profile is very similar to Louisville closer Tony Zych, and like Zych, Stilson could sneak into the first round of next June’s draft, particularly for a team with multiple early picks.

C

A draft-eligible sophomore and former Aflac All-American, Susac was part of an incredibly talented high school catching crop that included Luke Bailey, Max Stassi and Wil Myers. His defense was ahead of his bat at that stage of his development, and he took his talents to Oregon State after falling to the 16th round of the 2009 draft (Phillies). He is very active behind the plate, with a lean, athletic build, quick feet and soft hands. He shows a quick, accurate release and a very strong arm behind the plate with the ability to neutralize an opposing team’s running game. He only hit .260 as a freshman for the Beavers, but rebounded well last summer on the Cape. He led the league in slugging (.500) and finished with the second most home runs (five) in only 29 games while hitting .290 with a wood bat. While he still needs more work at the plate, his offensive tools also rate high, with good bat speed and the ability to catch up with good fastballs. Should all of those tools start to translate on a more consistent basis he could be taken in the first round of the draft, possibly among the top 15-20 overall selections.

IF

Michael is a shorter but strongly built, compact infielder that currently plays shortstop for the Tar Heels, but may have to slide over to second base at the next level. He is a good overall athlete, but doesn’t have any one standout tool, with a good, not great arm and good, not great range. A more statistically inclined team may be more willing to stick with him at shortstop, as he is steady enough to make all of the routine plays at the position. As a switch hitter, he shows a quick, compact stroke and gap power from both sides of the plate. There is some over the fence power to his swing, hitting 13 home runs as a freshman and nine last spring. He has good quickness, but isn’t considered a speed threat on the bases, although he did steal 20 bases in 22 attempts as a sophomore. He is a good overall player that doesn’t have the biggest upside, but is also a good bet to enjoy some level of success as a professional.

IF

McFarland is a good overall athlete with a strong built. He has solid tools across the board, with good foot speed, arm strength and bat speed. He currently plays shortstop, but may be better suited for second or third base at the next level, or even in college should he honor his commitment to Rice, where he could replace Anthony Rendon at the hot corner. He looks very natural at third base, with easy, quick actions, a quick transfer, the ability to charge ground balls and bunts, and a good (not great), accurate arm. He shows good extension and power potential at the plate, although most of his power with a wood bat is to the gaps at this point in his development. He has the size and potential to add more home run pop as he continues to mature and gain experience. He plays well with and against the best players in the nation at showcase and tournament events, and shows the ability to make adjustments at the plate against good pitching.

3B

Esposito is a dynamic overall athlete, whose offensive prowess and brimming confidence reminds me somewhat of big-league slugger Ryan Braun with a knack for delivering the big hit. Esposito is a better bet to stick at third base, with good first-step quickness and a strong, accurate arm. He has very good bat speed with the ability to catch up with high, hard fastballs to drive them a long way. He tends to run hot and cold at the plate, but made a lot of adjustments to improve significantly from his freshman to his sophomore years. He is a workout warrior with a chiseled frame that always keeps himself in very good shape and overall conditioning. He is projected to go late in the first-round in the 2011 draft, but another big season improvement could mean a big surge on draft boards, as he has 20-20 potential. He turned down first-round money as a seventh-round pick of the Royals from the 2008 draft to attend Vanderbilt, taking over the hot corner from Pedro Alvarez.

SS

Gaines could be drafted early for his defensive prowess at the shortstop position alone, and he is starting to make strides with his bat. He isn’t a weak hitter, as he has the necessary offensive tools to work with to become more of a consistent threat at the plate, and he currently is working on making those adjustments and getting stronger in the wrists and forearms. He makes defense at shortstop look effortless, with clean, gliding actions and tremendous range. He has a strong, accurate throwing arm, and can make the routine and acrobatic play. He also pitches and shows a strong arm on the mound. He works in the upper-80s with the ability to reach 90, and his projectable, athletic, wiry-strong frame leads many to believe he could be throwing in the low-90s more consistently next spring as he continues to add strength. His athleticism at shortstop makes him too good there to consider him at another position, although he may be considered a two-way threat should he attend Florida International.

OF

Tilson’s tool-set is highlighted by his game changing speed, which has also made him an intriguing wide receiver prospect on the gridiron. His speed serves him well both in centerfield and on the basepaths, with very good first-step quickness out of the batter’s box as a left-handed hitter. He is considered a four-tool prospect, with only his arm strength checking in below average. There isn’t much power currently in his swing, but he has been known to surprise onlookers by putting a charge in a ball from time to time, and many believe he will hit the ball with more authority more consistently as he continues to grow into his athletic frame. Currently he stings the balls to all parts of the fields and wreck havoc on the bases when he gets on, and he also pitches even though that isn’t a part of his professional future. He is a talent on the rise that is a legitimate candidate to be plucked in the first round of the draft. He has committed to play in-state for the University of Illinois.

OF

Bell has improved his stock to the point where he could be discussed as a top 10 overall pick. His athleticism and tools are almost unmatched in the 2011 class, as his bat and arm strength compare favorably to George Springer’s. Bell doesn’t possess elite speed, but he moves well, and may be a perfect fit in right field given his power bat/arm profile. At the plate he gets excellent extension and has great bat speed. He has strong hands, wrists and forearms, giving him very good bat speed. His pitch recognition has improved, and he performed at a high level at the Perfect Game/WWBA World Championships in Jupiter late last October. That performance solidified his status as one of the top hitters available for the 2011 draft, and should that improvement continue in the spring, he may be considered one of the premium players overall. Texas Longhorn recruits are never easy to pry away, but Bell is good enough where the money involved is too good to pass up.

OF

Fisher put his name among those being considered for the first-round after an impressive showing at the East Coast Professional Showcase late during the summer of 2010. He’s a big, strong athlete with legitimate five-tool potential. He has a smooth left-handed swing with the ability to drive balls from gap to gap, and plenty over-the-fence power. He runs well, particularly underway, and has a strong throwing arm. He may lose some speed as he continues to mature and add more strength to his large frame, and may profile as a similar prospect to Jay Bruce at a similar stage in their careers. The biggest thing Fisher needs at this time is experience, but he will definitely get more exposure between now and the 2011 draft as he no longer is a sleeper. He has committed to play for Virginia, and may be one of the better pure hitters available.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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