5 Tool Talk - Draft-Related Baseball Notes

College Notes 6-15-10

Does anyone remember a whackier draft than the one that just occurred earlier this week? I know money always plays a part of who is selected where, but many of the picks seemed to go much deeper than that. I’m not sure if there was much confidence in the talent that was available.

Anyway, the 2010 draft is behind us, as is Super Regional play in college baseball. There was a ton of 2010 talent on-hand during the weekend, and was a nice preview for the top talent that will be available next year. Several of these players will continue to showcase their talents in Omaha, as Arizona State, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Oklahoma, South Carolina, TCU and UCLA all advanced.

I have archived all of the notes from this past spring which are accessible in the right-hand column under 2010 Notes Archives. At some point I will be sure to provide some links to those columns (and from 2009) that have pertinent information on some of the more intriguing 2011 draft-eligible prospects.

Sean Gilmartin

Gilmartin is a great athlete and a crafty lefty that will likely draw the usual comparisons to Tom Glavine for both. He topped out in the low-90s in the first and second innings of his start against Vanderbilt, but then settled in at 87-88. He threw a slow, sweeping slider and pulled the string on a few nifty changeups. He also can add and subtract off of his fastball, with some cutter-like action on his heater, throwing that pitchin the low to mid-80s. He started the game well, cruising through the first two innings, but then really started to nibble, leading to some long innings even if he didn’t start to get touched up until the fifth. Lefties can get away with average stuff at any level, but I would like to see Gilmartin pitch more aggressively at times, although I recognize college pitchers are taught to pitch away from contact.

Jason Esposito

Esposito is another player I’ve covered before, a powerfully built third baseman that knows how to put a charge in a ball. He essentially knocked Gilmartin out of the game in the fifth inning, hitting a two-run double with two outs to the opposite field on a low fastball. He also hit a solo shot to lead off the seventh, again off of a low fastball. He did a good job taking pitches and working the count, showing very good bat speed and pitch recognition. He’s not quite as dynamic of an athlete as Ryan Braun, but that is who he kind of reminds me of, and sticking at third base is a lot more likely.

Jack Armstrong

Armstrong last only 1.1 innings in the third game of Vanderbilt’s series with Florida State. He gave up a solo shot to Stephen Cardullo to open the second, who blasted an upper-80s low fastball over the fence in left-centerfield, and it didn’t get any better from there. He did strike out the next batter, freshman first baseman Jayce Boyd (one of the more talented prospects for 2012, but I’m focusing on next year’s class here), on an inside fastball that was clocked at 89, but then gave up a single, double and a walk before being removed with the bases loaded. Senior Drew Hayes came on to give up a 2-run double to Tyler Holt, and then an RBI groundout to Sherman Johnson, meaning Armstrong ending up allowing 4 earned runs.

He was up to 95, hit 94 once, 92 a couple of other times and 91 a handful of times. He curveball looked good a couple of times and not so good a couple of other times. He also threw one really sharp changeup, but overall it’s clear he struggled with consistency on this day, and his coaches weren’t prepared to let him pitch through his troubles given the importance of the game. With the series tied 1-1, the winner would advance to the College World Series.

I expected Sonny Gray to pitch the first game of this series, but Tim Corbin went with Taylor Hill. Gray pitched the second game, which unfortunately was not televised locally.

Matt Purke

I saw Purke’s 14-strikeout performance over Utah a few weeks ago as chronicled here at 5 Tool Talk, and yesterday I got to see Purke’s second 10+ strikeout performance on the season for the recently named Freshman of the Year. I like his moxie, as he cocks his cap to one side, wears the sports goggles and springs off the mound as an inning comes to an end. You can tell he is completely comfortable on the mound, and raises his game as the situation calls for it. I’ll call is a quirky confidence. There is some head snap to his delivery and not the cleanest delivery, but he locates his fastball, which has some nice life, and his slider well. His slider looked better on this day than it did a few weeks ago, and also looked more like a true slider. He’s a lot of fun to watch because it’s clear he simply gets it, knowing how to disrupt hitters timing and setting the tempo of the game. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore, and remains one of my favorite amateur prospects out there.

Taylor Jungmann

I was expecting a Purke-Jungmann matchup in the first game of this series, but Augie Garrido decided to go with Cole Green in the first game. Jungmann took the mound in game two, and pitched well as the Longhorns rolled over TCU. It allowed viewers to watch a talented 2011 pitcher in each of the three games, alternating between Purke, Jungmann and Winkler.

Jungmann, for as hyped as he is for next year’s draft as a candidate to go first overall, threw the softest of the trio. He topped out at 92, but pitched mostly in the 88-89 range with his fastball, and threw a ton of soft curveballs. He is able to add and subtract off of his breaking ball, going in between a slow, hard-breaking low-70s curve and a sharper, mid-to-high-70s slurve with greater two-plane break. He did throw a couple of changeups, which clocked in the low-80s.

I’ve seen Jungmann much sharper than he was on this day, and yet he still struck out 9 in 8.1 innings of working, allowing only one run on 6 hits and 2 walks. Unfortunately for the Longhorns, TCU beat them in game three to advance to the College World Series for the first time ever. Texas is still poised to be one of college baseball’s best teams last year, and if they had faced any other team than TCU, who they knocked out of Super Regional player last year, they too may advance. They boasted one of the best weekend starting staffs, and arguably the best pitching staff from top to bottom, in all of baseball. TCU can say the same thing, as can UCLA, both of whom are headed to Omaha.

Kyle Winkler

I had seen Winkler in an earlier start this year, but I hadn’t seen him throw his usual upper-80s to low-90s hard, sinking fastball. Instead he was throwing 93-94 in that game with his four-seamer, and impressed me with his ability to maintain that velocity deep into the game.

He was back to his usual trick in this game, throwing that 88-91 sinker along with a very sharp slider slider. He carried a lot of intensity onto the mound for this game, the deciding game in the Super Regionals against Texas as mentioned above.

He’s not as projectable as most of the pitchers listed above, and won’t be considered a lock to go in the first round to open the season next year, but I like his chances for his competitive nature, the movement on his pitches and his ability to command the strike zone. You don’t see too many sinker-ballers that have such good command of the pitch at a young age, as it usually takes a few more years for such a pitcher to get a feel for what those kinds of pitches are going to do. He along with Purke will continue to keep TCU competitive, along with an impressive lineup with several key returnees.

Of all of the teams that advanced to Omaha, TCU and Florida are the most balanced in my opinion.

Gerrit Cole

Cole was throwing gas, consistently 96-97 in the early innings, touching 98 a few times while also throwing an upper-80s slider. It’s easy to say his arm is electric, and it’s not as though he’s max effort, as his command has improve significantly over the past year. One common concern coming out of high school was that he may have to move to relief as a pro with somewhat of a max effort delivery. I don’t see that concern, and I didn’t see it when I got to see him, albeit briefly, in high school. He also thew a couple of changeups in his game against Cal State Fullerton, which didn’t seem fair to the Titans hitters given how hard he was throwing his fastball-slider. The same can be said for his two-seamer which he threw 89-91 and offered a little more sinking life. I was impressed how well he threw all of his pitches, and did a good job commanding the strike zone for how hard he thew. For as much as I like Anthony Rendon, and even Matt Purke as described above, Cole is legitimately the number one prospect for next June’s draft.

By the fourth inning the opposing batters showed the ability to catch up with his stuff. There was a bad play in the outfield that led to a few runs that never should have crossed the plate, but it still seemed clear that he still needs to work on his endurance. Not so much for his velocity, as he was still throwing hard, but he started to leave more pitches over the plate, and also didn’t seem to value the importance of mixing things up the third and fourth times through the lineup. Christian Colon joined the fun by hitting a solo shot off of Cole in the fifth.

As with Sonny Gray above, UCLA’s second game was not televised locally, meaning I missed out on UCLA’s co-ace, Trevor Bauer, (who I should be able to catch in the CWS) although he threw one of his worse games of the year against Cal State Fullerton.

Noe Ramirez

Ramirez was a perfect counterpart to Cole, a long and rangy righty whose best pitch was a changeup. Ramirez still threw in the low-90s and also mixed in a pretty good slider, but his game was clearly more about changing speeds and keeping batter’s guessing than blowing them away with pure stuff. I could easily see that approach and overall repertoire succeeding at the next level, as his changeup showed very good fade and his fastball had some dip to it. Basically, it’s not so much how hard to hit he was, but he certainly was hard to hit hard.

Danny Hultzen

Virginia lost to Oklahoma in the Super Regionals, with Virginia ace getting the ball in the first game. Hultzen was named the ACC pitcher of the year after taking the conference’s freshman of the year honors a year ago.

This was the third time that I saw Hultzen this year, who threw the hardest the first time I saw him, pitching in the low-90s and maxing out at 94. In this game he was mostly 88-89, touching the low-90s on a few occasions in the early innings. While he’s at his best changing speeds with his well-rounded arsenal, he’s not afraid to challenge hitters with his fastball upstairs. He has a slow curve that sits in the low-to-mid-70s, a slider which is thrown similar to his curve with less break but more velocity, and a changeup that falls off the table. He can throw all of his pitches for strikes, and really does a good job keeping hitters guessing. Given how good his offspeed stuff is, it makes his fastball look that much harder out of the hand.

Hultzen is more about pitchability, but he’s not a finesse pitcher. I really like his competitiveness and composure on the mound, as he doesn’t get rattled or distracted and you rarely see batters make solid, hard contact off of him. That’s an impressive trait for a college arm with the presence of aluminum bats, and I see him having little problems making the conversion to professional baseball a year from now.

Jackie Bradley Jr.

Bradley Jr. and Whit Merrifield formed a very nice top of the order for the Gamecocks all season long. Bradley in particular did a nice job getting on base (.474 on-base percentage) thanks to a patient eye at the plate (36 walks vs. 31 strikeouts). He has more speed than his stolen bases (7 in 10 attempts) would indicate even if he isn’t a true burner, as South Carolina skipper Ray Tanner prefers a patient and powerful offensive attack as opposed to employing small-ball like an Augie Garrido led team.

Bradley also offered some pop this year, swatting 12 dingers, although I expect him to be more of a doubles and triples type of hitter as a professional. He shows very good bat speed and a strong arm in the outfield. He has shown the ability to make adjustments quickly during his college career, and I fully expect him to take another step forward next year. He is a similar prospect to Kentrail Davis from a couple of years ago at Tennessee, although minus the Kirby Puckett comparisons physically. Bradley somewhat resembles a young Milton Bradley, although it may be the last name that makes me connect the two.

Brad Miller

Miller is one of the more disciplined all-around players eligible for next year’s draft. He isn’t overly flashy, and none of his tools jump out at you. If you watched him play, you may not even realize he is one of next year’s top prospects.

He is built tall and lean, with long, wiry strong limbs. He shows good, not great range at shortstop and a good, not great arm. He is very patient at the plate, and rarely gets fooled. He has some power potential, but most of his power is to the gaps at this point in his career. He led the potent Tigers in batting this year after hitting .273 as a freshman, winning the starting shortstop job his first year in college. He also played for Team USA, and is on the trials roster to do so again this summer.

Miller is a sum-of-his-parts type of prospect. There will be some skepticism about him sticking at shortstop, but that shouldn’t be a concern in the next 2-3 years after he goes pro. Second base should be an easy transition for him if he does have to move. He profiles in a similar fashion to another Clemson Tiger, former big-league infielder Bill Spiers, for his solid tools across the board and left-handed bat.

Gators vs. Hurricanes

Harold Martinez missed Miami’s final game of the year after he had a tennis ball sized lump removed from his left shin. Miami loss to Florida in both of their Super Regional game, so their season is over as the Gators advance. Martinez had a huge season at the plate, leading the Hurricanes with 21 home runs. In the games I saw him this year he looked very comfortable and balanced at the plate, with a big swing and excellent extension to go along with his quick bat. His long swing is going to lead to some lofty strikeout numbers, but he could excel in the power department. He is a loose and rangy athlete with a strong arm that moved to third base this year where his skills seem to play well defensively after playing shortstop in high school.

Miami lefty Alex Panteliodis pitched the first game of the matchup with the Hurricanes, and shut them down, throwing a complete game allowing only three hits (one of which was a two-run home run to Yasmani Grandal) while striking out 12. While he doesn’t throw particularly hard, he was dialing it up to the 90s in this one and kept hitters off balance with his big, slow curveball and changeup.

Florida first baseman Preston Tucker continues to show his patience approach at the plate. He along with freshmen Nolan Fontana, Austin Maddox, Mike Zunino and Brian Johnson are going to keep the Gators competitive next year as well, and I expect Tucker to take another step forward in the power department. The patience is already there (43 walks this season vs. 27 strikeouts) , so now he just has to learn where and when to pick his times to strike, as he has the natural swing path, bat speed and strength to hit 15-20 home runs as a junior. His body isn’t the prettiest, but he’s good enough of an athlete to be solid at worse at first.

As mentioned above, I really like the Gators chances in Omaha as one of the most balanced teams in the nation. For that matter, I really like their chances for next year too, regardless what happens in the CWS.

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Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

more

Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft