5 Tool Talk - Draft-Related Baseball Notes

College Notes 3-5-11

There are plenty of good matchups across the nation this weekend, with Clemson and South Carolina playing their fierce in-state rivalry, Andrew Gagnon faced Tyler Anderson as the Ducks visited Long Beach State, Stanford was in Austin, Texas and the annual Houston College Classic taking place at Minute Maid Park. I decided to set my focus on Andrew Chafin and Kent State as they travelled to Louisville for the weekend.

Andrew Chafin

Chafin, like Adam Conley last week, was a pitcher I was very interested in seeing. The two have some similarities beyond their left-handedness, in that they both have excelled in past years as closers. Chafin is a redshirt sophomore this year since he missed all of the 2010 season due to an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery. He was dominant during his freshman year, posting eight saves and a 1.26 ERA.

On the mound he reminded me of Virginia’s Danny Hultzen, with his legs spread far apart as he stood on the mound with a sturdy build and strong lower half. Chafin has a very wide spread as part of his delivery, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team shorten that stride at the next level. His mechanics and arm action worked well, although it took him a little bit to get in sync in the first inning.

He started off rather wild, although that wildness didn’t hurt him too much, sometimes looking to work to his advantage. He was missing with his fastball, and it took him a few times to get over his slider. Once he started to tighten up that pitch he dropped in a few changeups, and slowly but surely through the second and third innings he found the command on his heater.

Chafin pitched in the 90-92 range (he reportedly was up to 95 in the fall), throwing his slider around 82-83. As noted above, he could take a little off of his breaking ball to drop in a few pitches that looked more like a slow curve. Once he was in sync, he didn’t have much use for his changeup, as he started to blow through Louisville’s lineup with little problems.

He has the mindset of a power pitcher, attacking hitters with two legitimate strikeout pitches. He can be a little animated at times showing his emotion, showing some competitive fire to his game.

On the day he worked seven innings, giving up only one hit, three walks while striking out 10 as part of a 100 pitch outing. The hit and one of the walks came in the first inning when he started off rusty. He also made a great diving play on a bunt attempt in the third inning and was able to double up the runner at first. His arm is relatively fresh in that he had thrown only 40 innings in his collegiate career prior to this game, and with his stuff he’s yet another lefty to keep an eye on in the early parts of the draft.

Matt Koch

Koch (pronounced COOK) is a 2012 draft-eligible, a right-handed pitcher that also peaked in the 90-92 range. He wasn’t nearly as filthy as Chafin was, but he did a better job pounding the strike zone. His fastball has some run to it, and he threw a nice overhand curve that had some slurve-like break to it at times. He has a tall and lean build with an easy, repeatable delivery. However, there were a few times when he seemed to lose focus and/or his rhythm which caused him to alter his release point. This only happened a handful of times, and seemed to come after a bigger moment in the game, almost a reaction to the previous play.

He did a nice job inducing early contact, and the only run he gave up in eight innings of work was a solo shot to Travis Shaw to open the seventh inning. His upside is likely as a third starter, more likely a fourth or fifth, at the next level, and follows a long line of Louisville pitchers with similar profiles in Thomas Royse, Justin Marks and Zack Pitts.

Ryan Wright

It’s hard not to like the way Wright plays the game. You can see his leadership qualities on the field, and is confident in his ability to carry that responsibility. He’s a good athlete with quickness, soft hands, rangy proportions and good overall actions. That shows up defensively, as in this game he made a nice charging play on a ground ball, made a diving play to his glove hand side to rob a single, and showed a nice pivot at second base on double play attempts.

He went hitless against Chafin, but had some very good at-bats against the lefty. He worked the count, fouled some tough pitches off and put the ball in play. I don’t know how much home run power he’ll have at the next level, as he’ll have a tough time matching the power numbers he posted a year ago with the new bats, but he has good gap-to-gap power with his swing.

Travis Shaw

Shaw’s home run to open the seventh was a towering bomb that carried well over the fence in left-centerfield. He put such as easy swing on a fastball that caught the outer half of the strike zone that it was easy to recognize his power potential. He has long legs and hits from a slightly open stance. He holds his hands low and overall shows a pretty good eye at the plate. He’s a left-handed hitter with a pronounced uppercut to his swing, and when the bat leaves his shoulder he doesn’t get cheated. At third base he made all of the plays he needed to showing a strong arm for the position. Russell Branyan comes to mind when watching Shaw play.

Ben Klafczynski

If you’re like me, you have probably referred to Klafczynski (pronounced Klaf-CHIN-ski) as Ben K. He’s an aggressive and well built left-handed hitter that physically resembles Larry Walker and Jay Bruce. He’s not afraid to swing early in the count if he sees a pitch he likes, and can put a charge in the ball. He has done a better job during his college career improving his plate discipline, but may be looking to dispel questions about his overall power potential by taking such aggressive hacks.

He moves alright in the outfield, with average speed for a corner outfielder and a good throwing arm. He gunned down a runner in this game at home, the potential tying run, in the bottom of the eighth. He then proceeded to hit a solo shot the opposite way down the left field line in the top of the ninth, showing his power to all fields. The ball really jumped off of his bat in that at-bat, and he had a few others in which he made strong contact.

Kyle McMillen

McMillen entered the game in the bottom of the ninth with the Golden Flashes up 2-0. Unfortunately he wasn’t able to close this game out, allowing two runs to score (Louisville went on to win in extra innings). He’s a good athlete with lean, tapered proportions and a wiry strong frame. He has a live arm in which the ball appears to explode out of his hand after a slow, deliberate windup. He sat 90-91 in this game, and threw mostly fastballs. He appeared to try and throw a slider, but couldn’t find the grip on the pitch.

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Dandy Dozen

SP	Andrew Gagnon	Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire
SP	Erik Johnson	Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo
SP	Deshorn Lake	Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball
CL	Nick Maronde	Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to
C	Nick Delmonico	May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat
1B	Zach Wilson	Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball
IF	Sean Trent	Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm
3B	Dante Bichette, Jr.	Clone of father with big build, power
SS	Austin Nola	Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength
OF	Nick Martini	Good all around player with patient eye
OF	Shon Carson	Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster
OF	Granden Goetzman	Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo

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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft