Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft
College Notes 5-26-09
Plenty of access to good college players has prompted me to write a few more notes columns than I expected this spring. Robert Stock is probably the most interesting prospect among this bunch, as he seemed to have found his value as a starter for USC this spring.
USC vs. Cal
Grant Green of course is the biggest name in this contest, but his stock as seemed to have slipped a little bit as his defense hasn’t been as sharp and he hasn’t hit for much power. He still has hit for a high average with the ability to smack line drives to all parts of the field. Of course what he did last summer on the Cape proved that he is able to make the necessary adjustments swinging a wood bat, and he is a premium athlete, meaning he will remain a premium pick unless his pricetag becomes an issue.
The aforementioned Stock took the mound for USC and looked really sharp. He’s a Dave Bush clone as a starter, with a very similar, lean yet athletic build on the mound and a good, not great fastball-curveball-changeup repertoire. He works quickly and there is some deception to his delivery. He tops out around 93, working mostly in the 88-91 range. Since he doesn’t blow any batters away, he needs to make sure all three pitches are working for him.
Like Bush, Stock is a former catcher, and a former closer. If he’s allowed to hit, he’s sure to add some value with his bat, as he also has a disciplined eye, but just wasn’t able to make as big of an impact offensively like so many people expected. He will probably fall somewhere in the third to fifth round range, and there was a small handful of scouts behind home plate to catch Stock’s outing.
First baseman Ricky Oropesa continues to impress me with his size and his swing. He could be an impact first rounder in 2011.
Brett Jackson is the best prospect the Bears have to offer. If you’re looking for a leadoff hitting centerfielder, I’m not so sure Jackson fits that bill, at least not in a prototypical fashion. Physically he reminds me of Laynce Nix, and he does have double digit home run power. He has a big swing that leads to a lot of Ks, although he is a dynamic player both swinging the bat and on the basepaths. He has good range in center and a decent throwing arm.
I had the chance to follow Jackson in the Northwoods League two summers ago, where he drew rave reviews for his potential five-tool ability. He hit well with a wood bat that summer, a summer cut short due to injuries. I’m not so sure I would take him in the first round, but is a similar prospect to the White Sox’ Brian Anderson, whom they took in the first round (15th overall pick) out of Arizona in the ’03 draft.
I really thought Blake Smith would have a big year, and felt he would make a name for himself coming out of the Bears’ starting rotation. When the year started shaky, he was moved back to the bullpen, and pretty soon he was shut down from pitching altogether. He hasn’t had the impact season as a hitter the Bears hoped he would either.
He still is an interesting, athletic prospect that has potential both as a pitcher and as a hitter. Despite not seeing him pitch for quite some time, I still believe his future is brighter on the mound, but he may have to return for his senior season to re-prove his value.
As for other starters on Cal, keep an eye on freshman Erik Johnson, who has a thick build and a solid three-pitch repertoire. His fastball sits in the low-90s, and his curveball is his second best pitch.
Long Beach State vs. Cal State Fullerton
This game featured a matchup between LHP Adam Wilk and RHP Daniel Renken.
I saw Wilk last summer pitch in the Cape all-star game. Probably because he tossed only one inning, but Wilk looked better then then he did in this game. His fastball sat in the 87-89 range, touching 90 two or three times. His curveball hardly broke, although I wrote in my notes last summer that his curve was a plus-pitch with hard downward break. It was more of a floater in this game, and his fastball looked pretty straight, making him look pretty hittable overall.
He already throws from a low three-quarters delivery, but it would be interesting to see him drop his arm angle a little further and see if he can turn his curve into more of a slider to take advantage of his low arm angle. He has a lean build with a high waist, and profiles as a lefty specialist if developed properly.
Renken is one of the best pitchers available for the 2010 draft. I’m not so sure he sneaks into the first round, but the sandwich or second rounds are definite possibilities when trying to project his draft future more than a year ahead of time. He has a good, sturdy build and repeats his delivery very well. He throws all of his pitches with the same arm velocity and action, and has some deception to his delivery.
He threw his fastball in the 87-90 range (he touched 92 several times, and 93 once), several ticks better than the first time I saw him this year. He threw a few nice looking changeups early in the game before he was able to get his slider over. His fastball has some dip to it as well, making him a good groundball pitcher, and he also throws a slow curveball. He worked fairly quickly and did a good job dictating the pace of the game, particularly with runners on.
Christian Colon is going to be a first-rounder next year. He is enjoying a fine sophomore year, and is the unquestioned leader of the Cal State Fullerton Titans. He does everything well and makes the game look easy. He’s a threat at the plate and on the basepaths, and is a smooth defender at shortstop with a strong arm. His size and tool package makes him somewhat of a poor man’s version of Rafael Furcal, as he doesn’t have the same kind of power arm, power bat and lightning quick speed. His tools are very solid across the board, and should enjoy a big summer during his second time with Team USA.
Indiana power arm II
I also was able to watch Indiana’s second game in the Big Ten tournament in which Indiana lefty Matt Bashore shut down Minnesota. Bashore started the year really slow, and got bumped a few spots down the starting rotation. He found his groove when conference play opened, and was incredibly strong down the stretch. His second half surge coupled with Eric Arnett’s emergence led to Indiana’s dominance in the Big Ten tourney as they captured the championship, knocking off Purdue, Minnesota twice and Ohio State.
Bashore has a very easy arm action that produces easy low-90s heat. He reached 93 on a handful of occasions, and for the most part was 88-92. He needs to improve his focus, release point and overall command, but he can be effectively wild, although he did do a good job finding his groove by the third and fourth innings when he started to over-power the Gophers lineup.
You can tell he gets frustrated with himself easily, as he really needs to be paired with the right pitching coach to help him improve his focus on the game, pitch-by-pitch. It could be a matter of him repeating his delivery better to pound the strike zone more effectively.
He has both a slow mid-70s curve and a harder biting slurvy slider that sits in the upper-70s. He also appears to take a little bit off of his fastball when he drops down to the 87-88 range to create a little more running movement.
Josh Phegley definitely has spent a lot of time in the weight room. He’s not shy about showing off his biceps in a shirt that looks as though it could fit my three-year old son. I have expressed before that I am a little worried that all that time spent in the weight room may have robbed him of some of his flexibility, as he looks a little stiff both at the plate and behind it. He has enjoyed another big year, although not as impressive as his sophomore season. Phegley does have good bat speed an exciting power potential, and also still has a strong arm behind the plate. He’s probably a second or third rounder in the draft.
Minnesota has a pair of interesting draft-eligible hitters. Second baseman Derek McCallum has hit for average and power this spring, with 17 home runs entering regional play. He is another player that I have covered while following the Northwoods League, as he drew praise last summer for his smooth left-handed swing and a knack for making consistent, hard contact.
But even then most admitted he wasn’t much of a home run hitter, more of a gap-to-gap guy that may have helped himself significantly with his power output this spring. He exhibits a good eye at the plate and is a solid defender at second base. Similar to last summer when I saw him play, he got a steady diet of offspeed stuff as pitchers seem to try to avoid throwing him a fastball.
Two-sport star Eric Decker has drawn some unfair Kirk Gibson comparisons before for his left/left, athletic profile as both an outfielder and a wide receiver for the Minnesota athletic department. He has great, athletic body, a nice blend of power and speed, and shows a good idea at the plate despite not playing baseball full time throughout his college career. I’ve heard that he would like to return to the football team in the fall to pick up where he left off before injuries got the best of him late last fall. He doesn’t have ideal wide receiver speed, as his upside is probably greater on the baseball diamond.
Dandy Dozen
SP |
Tyler Matzek | Polished lefty with power arsenal |
SP |
Alex White | Second best college RHP to Strasburg |
SP |
Zack Wheeler | Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB |
UT |
Brooks Raley | Smooth lefty leads A&M; in ERA, BA |
C |
Luke Bailey | Baseball rat with compact build, swing |
1B |
Jonathan Singleton | Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat |
IF |
Ryan Jackson | Slick defender with questions about bat |
3B |
Jiovanni Mier | True SS with exciting tools |
SS |
Robbie Shields | 2B/3B type with promising bat |
OF |
Tim Wheeler | Exciting blend of power & speed |
OF |
LeVon Washington | Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools |
OF |
Everett Williams | Great athlete with tools galore |
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