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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Leake doesn't light up radar guns, but as one person told me in recent weeks, if he were 6'2" he would be talked about more among the top 10 overall picks in June's draft. Short righties certainly have a stigma working against them, although there are some teams (such as the Oakland A's) that have made some impressive success stories by bucking traditional scouting themes and trends. That isn't to say that it takes a lot of imagination to see success for Leake, who is a very good pitcher with a well-rounded four-pitch repertoire and uncanny command. It all starts with his fastball, as it should, which he regulardly throws in the 88-91 range and he has approached triple digits at times. His slider and changeup are also plus-pitches that he can throw at any time, in any count. He also throws a curveball, and while the pitch is much better than simply a "show-me" offering, it is definitely his fourth best offering. Despite quesitons about his size, he has been very durable throughout his career, and enjoyed success upon stepping onto Arizona State's campus. He is a talented overall athlete that could also excel as an infielder, with good bat speed, quick feet and a strong arm that may allow him to succeed at shortstop. His size, stuff and two-way potential draws comparisons to Tim Hudson.

SP

While Stephen Strasburg strikes out two batters an inning and grows into a legend larger of life with radar gun readings that approach, or according to some surpass, triple digits, James Paxton's emergence is the biggest surprise on the scouting circuit this spring. The 6'4" lefty has added 20 pounds of muscle, and has taken his fastball from the upper-80s to the mid-90s, reaching as high as 97. He has been able to maintain that velocity deep into ballgames, and even at those readings his heater shows natural late sinking life. He complements his fastball with a hammer of a curveball that he still needs to find more consistently. When both pitches are working for him, he's nearly unhittable, as he has been in recent weeks since SEC conference play opened. A native of British Columbia, Canada, his arm is relatively fresh, which makes his late bloom a little less surprising. He could use a little more seasoning, as he consistently is around the zone, but works deep into counts and causes his pitch count to ascend more quickly than it should. He throws from a low three-quarters delivery, giving him natural deception, and has an incredible easy arm action that makes it easy to see where the added velocity came from. When you put it all together, this athletic, well-built lefty that is now throwing in the mid-90s with an easy arm and a killer curve is a near lock to go in the first round. Don't be surprised if he's among the top three to five overall players taken come June.

SP

Thompson is a towering righty checking in a 6'8". While his height may suggest that he is more of a true power pitcher, his style is more reminiscent to other former Aflac All-Americans such as Chris Volstad and Tim Alderson, in that they rely on control and changing speeds than blowing batters away. Thompson's fastball does reach 94, and has been sitting in the 90-94 range this spring. It also offers nice, late sinking action. He is a prototypical sinker-slider pitcher, although his 79-80 mph slider acts more like a cutter or a split-fingered fastball, and he also throws a nice, fading change. While there is some pause in his delivery, which creates a fair amount of deception to opposing batters, he has a nice delivery, especially for someone of his stature. His improved and more consistent velocity readings this spring has created some big crowds at his games from the scouting community, and he could be creeping into first-round consideration. He has committed to play for Arizona State.

CL

Converted infielder Russell Brewer has followed a similar path as the man he replaced at Vanderbilt, former first-round pick Casey Weathers. Brewer's stuff may not be as electric as Weathers', but he made Weathers' departure a lot easier to handle by stepping in to serve as the Commodores' closer a year ago and didn't miss a beat. Brewer has a very good athletic frame, and a deceptive delivery that makes his stuff that much harder to track. He keeps all of his pitches down in the zone, highlighted by a high-80s sinker and a nasty slider. It's possible that if he develops his changeup, of which he hasn't really had to do since he is used in short relief at the college level, I would like to see him at least be given a chance as a starter at the professional level, but since he has only recently taken to pitching full-time, his development may be best suited to stick in a short relief role. He doesn't have the stuff to go in the first-round, but he should be taken in the top five to seven rounds, and could be a similar prospect to former Commodore and current Cleveland Indians relief pitcher Jensen Lewis.

C

Sanchez has slowly but surely made a name for himself. I had the pleasure of following him as I covered the Northwoods League during the summer of 2007, of which I ranked him as the 12th best prospect based on the feedback I received from league managers and scouts that covered the circuit. The most glowing comments he received at that time focused on his defense. With cat-like quickness behind the plate, he is an active presence with a cannon for an arm, making it look as though he was born to play the position. He continued to impress during his sophomore year, was named a Cape Cod League all-star last summer, and is off to an impressive start this spring. While he hit in the .260s two summers ago, he finished second in the NWL in doubles, and finished third in on-base percentage last summer on the Cape. He has very good bat speed, and as he has refined his approach he has shown the ability to hit for average, gap power while also showing good patience. He may never be a huge threat when it comes to home run power, but he has enough to reach double digits over the course of a full season. His early season success has pushed his name into first-round consideration.

1B

The crack of the bat makes a different kind of sound when Malm stands in the batters box. He's the type of prep hitter similar to Prince Fielder and Travis Snider that no one seems to doubt will hit, but no one falls in love with due to physical limitations. That means he's not going to win any sprints or find himself on the cover of GQ, but he has a better than fighting chance to contiue to tear the cover off of the ball at the highest level. Like Fielder and Snider, he is a left-handed hitter with a short yet powerful stroke and a very disciplined approach. He makes good contact given his power, and should maintain a good batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage at the professional level. Whether his pro career starts now or in three years obviously remains to be seen, but even if it doesn't, he could carry the USC Trojans offense, which likely will be without Grant Green next year, for the next three seasons. He continues to Fielder/Snider prototype in that he is never expected to be a plus defender at any position, including first, but he should hit enough for that not to be much of a concern.

IF

Franklin is the type of player every coach wants on his team. He's unselfish and versatile and could play any position on the field. He doesn't have a glaring weakness, although he doesn't have one stand-out strength either. In watching Franklin, a two-way talent who also shows well as a pitching prospect, it's hard to walk away unimpressed. His body type and overall profile is similar to Buster Posey at a similar stage in their careers, and like Posey Franklin may wind up in college (Auburn) and could wind up behind the plate. Offensively he has a line drive approach from both sides of the plate, and exhibits a good, patient eye. On the mound he approaches 90 mph with his fastball and shows a refined changeup. There is plenty of room for him to add strength, and while he doesn't have one plus tool now, it's easy to envision him breaking out over the next few years to become a premium professional prospect. There is some question as to whether or not he can stick at shortstop, but he has enough range and arm strength for now, and if not he could settle in nicely in at second.

3B

Borchering is an impressively built athlete. His size and obvious confidence gives him the look of a big-leaguer, and his tools and switch-hitting ability creates a package similar to that of Chipper Jones. Borchering isn't as good of a natural athlete, and may have to move to first base down the road given how big and mature his body already is. His bat may be good enough to play anywhere on the field, with great natural loft and power in his swing from both sides of the plate. He makes good adjustments from at-bat to at-bat, and has an advanced knowledge of the art of hitting at such a young age. He also has a strong arm, and pitches at the high school level, but is considered a positional prospect at the next level. He highlights a very impressive class that has committed to play for the Florida Gators, although if he continues to rise as he did during the summer of 2008 he likely will be drafted early enough to make his college career an afterthought. He is yet another player that is currently playing his way into first-round consideration after a strong summer showing at prominent national showcase and tournament events.

SS

Thompson was selected to be a member of the Aflac All-American Classic last summer, but could not play due to Tennessee's rules about prep participation in all-star events. That would have given him one more major stage to perform, haven succeeded at nearly every stop before and since. He still showed up and participated in all of the practices, scrimmages and non-game related events. Thompson is a switch hitter that shows good plate coverage from both sides of the plate and knows how to use the entire field. This spring in particular he is showing very good power from the left-side of the plate, although he is facing more right-handed pitchers. Scouts are starting to show up in bigger groups watch Thompson who could be creeping into first-round consideration, otherwise he's probalby a good choice to go anywhere from the sandwich round to the third round. With good bat and foot speed, defense is the only quesiton remaining keeping him from being considered a true five-tool athlete. Scouts remain split on his defensive home, as he may be a better fit at third base, where his bat should provide enough pop to be considered a good fit. He has committed to play for Louisville.

OF

Jackson is a very good overall athlete that at this point in time is more about his tools than his tangible productivity, although he did have a nice summer playing in the Northwoods League in 2007. Currently he has more of a slashing bat but has enough size and bat speed to develop more over the fence power as he matures. He has very good speed and first-step quickness that allows him to leg out infield singles, cover a good amount of ground in centerfield while also being a threat on the basepaths. His arm is solid and more than good enough for centerfield, and he profiles as a prototypical leadoff hitting centerfielder. Much of his seasoning is dependent on his approach at the plate. He strikes out far too much for a player of his skill-set, but he does know how to work the count to draw walks and get on base. He could be surging towards the first round with a very nice beginning to his junior season, especially given the lack of impact outfielders available for the 2009 draft.

OF

Pollock was named the MVP of the Cape Cod League. For some reference, Conor Gillaspie won this award last year, with Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and Jason Varitek representing some of the more notable award winners. Pollock did so by finishing first in hits (61), doubles (15) and slugging (.556), second in batting (.377) and extra-base hits (20), third in runs scored (35), and fourth in on-base percentage (.455). He started and led off for the West squad, going 2-3 with a home run in the Cape's all-star game. His success dates back to his high school career, being named the Gatorade player of the year in Connecticut in 2006, where he was a talented two-way star that excelled on the mound as well as at the shortstop position. He started his career at Notre Dame playing second base, and a move back to the infield isn't completely out of the question, with either second base or third base being the more likely destinations. While he doesn't have ideal speed for centerfield, his baseball instincts allow him to get great jumps on balls and he has a strong arm. Pollock has good bat speed and good pitch recognition. He rarely gets fooled, has good plate coverage, hits to contact and doesn't strike out much. While there isn't a ton of power in his swing, there's enough for double-digit readings, and scouts were encouraged to see his power bloom this summer on the Cape while swinging a wood bat while not compromising his approach. He has plenty of gap power, and his speed allows him to leg out plenty of doubles and triples. He has been very effective stealing bases (85% success rate in college), although he's probably not good for more than 20-30 a year at the professional level. He reminds me a lot of Aaron Rowand, although with more speed and probably less raw power potential at a similar stage of their careers.

OF

Mitchell is one of the most gifted natural athletes that is eligible for the 2009 draft, as similar position he held coming out of high school three years ago. There were some teams that considered drafting him in the early rounds of the 2006 draft to sign him away from his two-sport commitment to LSU, which was the only thing that kept him from going pro out of high school, but it turns out his desire to play football and baseball was too great of an opportunity for him to pass up. The Twins did select him in the 10th round, and some thought they had the chance to sign him. An option quarterback in high school, he has spent the past three years as a wide receiver on the Tigers football team. He hasn't played as big of a role on the girdiron as he has hoped, and his baseball producitivity the past two springs has suffered because of it. He is off to a very impressive start this season, hitting for average, power, drawing walks and stealing bases. That is the game he showcased in high school, playing for the national perennial powerhouse Midland Redskins while also being named to the Aflac All-American Classic. Despite being rough around the edges, he has always shown a natural aptitude for baseball, and profiles as a leadoff hitting centerfielder. He drew comparisons to Carl Crawford for his athleticism and two-sport aspirations coming out of high school, and continues to profile as a similar type of players.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Tyler Matzek	Polished lefty with power arsenal
SP	Alex White	Second best college RHP to Strasburg
SP	Zack Wheeler	Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB
UT	Brooks Raley	Smooth lefty leads A&M; in ERA, BA
C	Luke Bailey	Baseball rat with compact build, swing
1B	Jonathan Singleton	Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat
IF	Ryan Jackson	Slick defender with questions about bat
3B	Jiovanni Mier	True SS with exciting tools
SS	Robbie Shields	2B/3B type with promising bat
OF	Tim Wheeler	Exciting blend of power & speed
OF	LeVon Washington	Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools
OF	Everett Williams	Great athlete with tools galore

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Dandy Dozen Archives

• 4-30-09
• 4-07-09
• 3-13-09
• 2-28-09

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