• Rankings
• Features
• Notes
• Mock Draft
• Draft Order
• About

Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Strasburg started his career at San Diego State out of the bullpen, and continued to be used that way the following summer for both Team USA and during his stint in the NECBL. The 2.43 ERA he posted his freshman year was the highest ERA at any level he has pitched, as he hasn't had an ERA above 1.80 at any other stop. He doesn't walk batters and he doesn't allow many hits while posting a ton of Ks. I hate to make it sound as though I'm over-glorifying Strasburg, but he really is as close to a perfect pitching prospect as you can find, with the size, stuff and overall athleticism that makes him very similar to pitchers such as Mark Prior and David Price at similar stages of their careers. His fastball has been sitting in the mid-to-upper 90s this spring. He can vary the speed and break on his breaking ball from a high-70s hammer to a low-80s sweeper. He also throws a changeup, and commands all three pitches extremely well, which has led to his incredibly low walk totals. Since he did start his college career out of the bullpen, his arm is relatively fresh, as he hasn't been overworked. He pitched for the US Olympic team this past summer in Beijing, the only amateur selected, and had an incredible start last spring against Utah in which he struck out 23 batters. He started off his season last year by out-dueling crosstown rival Brian Matusz, the third overall pick in last year's draft, of the San Diego Toreros. Strasburg will be advised by Scott Boras, meaning it is no sure thing that he goes first overall, as he should, to the Washington Nationals in next June's draft.

SP

Brad Boxberger looked like a completely different pitcher when I saw him used predominantly in relief last summer on the Cape than he did when he started the spring as one of USC's weekend starters. To open the year, his stuff looked very hittable, and it was, as it led to an ERA in excess of 6.00 for his sophomore season. In his defense, he was battling some elbow tendonitis, but h e was moved to the bullpen mid-year, and served as the closer to finish the season. He continued that role into the summer, and was very successful in doing so, earning a spot on the league's all-star game roster. Boxberger showed the stuff that made him so successful as a freshman at USC, and also on the Cape, when he was named a freshman All-American. At his best, although in shorter outings, Boxberger was pitching in the 93-94 range, with pretty good, late movement on his fastball. He also throws a slider with some cut-fastball type action on it, as well as a curveball. His range of pitches makes everyone not want to give up on his future as a starter, and he has re-claimed a starting role with USC this spring serving as the team’s Friday staff ace. He has responded well, pitching in the 92-96 range although he has struggled with his command, and continues to leave scouts split as to where he fits best in the future. He recorded nine saves on the Cape, and when batters are making contact, they're usually hitting weak ground balls to the infielders playing behind Boxberger. He has a good, strong frame and a low waist with strong lower body strength. There is still room in his upper body to add strength, although he may not need it given his present-day stuff. He has the size, stuff and pitching savvy to go among the top 10-15 picks, but it’s a matter of brining the pieces together more consistently.

SP

Matthew Purke in my opinion is the best prep prospect available for the 2009 draft. This may surprise some people, but I actually have Purke #2 overall at this point in time, behind only Stephen Strasburg. That's how good I think he could be if he's able to stay healthy, not that there's any reason to believe that he won't outside of the usual concern with young arms. Purke has a slender frame, yet he's a well-proportioned overall athlete with plenty of room to fill out as his body starts to mature into his early 20's. He throws from a low three-quarters delivery that creates a fair amount of deception, and his arm action is so effortless it makes it look as though he isn't putting much stress on his arm. The ball explodes out of his hand, as he can touch 95 with his fastball and sits comfortably in the 89-92 range, and there's a little bit of natural, late sinking movement to his fastball. While he does maintain his velocity deep into ballgames at this stage in his career, filling out and adding more muscle mass should only help him continue to do so, not only over the course of a game, but over the course of a much longer season. His arm action is tailor-made for a slider, a pitch that comes out of his hand looking like a fastball that explodes in on the hands of right-handed batters and away from left-handed swingers. Purke also throws a nice changeup that is advanced for his age, but doesn't throw it as often given the success of his fastball-slider combination. A talented overall athlete, he fields his position well and also is a gifted hitter that plays first base when he's not pitching. In addition to his physical attributes, Purke also receives high marks for his character. Not only does he have a good head on his shoulders, but he is also very confident in his abilities and has a nasty competitive streak that causes him to want the ball and exceed in the highest pressure situations. During the summer of 2008 Purke pitched for the Aflac All-American Classic, the Under Armour Classic, the Perfect Game National Showcase, the Tournament of the Stars and for the Team USA 18U National Team. He has committed to play for Texas Christian University, but I highly doubt he ever steps foot on campus.

CL

Stoffel was a highly regarded pitching prospect coming out of Agoura High School in 2006, where he teamed with Robert Stock, who is now at USC. A broken ankle caused Stoffel to miss the playoffs to close his high school career, and that along with his commitment to Arizona caused him to not be drafted in 2006. Stoffel assumed the role as the Wildcats closer during his freshman year, and has recently moved ahead of current Yankees prospect Mark Melancon for the Wildcats program's leader in saves. Stoffel has stated in the past that he preferred to start, but really flourished as a closer. He has the stuff to thrive as a starter should a team choose to pursue him in that role, but he hasn't thrown his changeup much at college since he hasn't needed it. His fastball sits in the low-90s and has good, late life with a knack for inducing weak swings and ground ball outs. His curveball is also a plus pitch, giving him a solid one-two punch. When I saw him when he was still in high school, his fastball velocity, movement and command coupled with an aggressive approach allowed him to break quite a few bats of opposing hitters, who rarely got a good swing at his pitches. While he's not overly projectable, he has a strong, stocky frame and an intimidating presence on the mound. His approach his fearless, he has a short memory and rarely gets rattled. The past two years he has teamed with Daniel Schlereth to give the Wildcats a very difficult late inning tandem to contend with, but now that Schlereth has begun his professional career, Stoffel now has the opportunity to showcase his skills on his own late in games in close contests.

C

Jonathan Walsh is a very good overall athlete, but his bat could allow him to sneak into the first round. I'm one of the few people that has Walsh ranked among the top 30 draft-eligible prospects in the nation, but I believe in his natural sense for the game and his ability to change games at the plate. A switch hitter with a smooth, natural stroke from both sides of the plate, Walsh makes hitting look so incredibly easy. He takes pitches and never looks anxious. He can drive the ball from gap-to-gap, and has the bat speed to pull an inside fastball and the ability to lace soft stuff away up the middle and to left field. His stance, and his facial features, resemble Joe Mauer, and he profiles as a similar high average, doubles hitter with a knack for the big hit. His versastility andsize make Jayson Werth yet another viable comparison, and a team may do themselves a favor moving Walsh from behind the plate to allow his bat to carry him. He is a very good overall athlete that has a strong arm and runs surprisingly well. He currently plays behind the plate, and while his arm strength allows him to post impressive POP times, he has a long way to go to learn the finer nuances of the position. Should he begin his professional career after high school, he may be better off at third or first base or even a corner outfield spot, where as noted just above, his bat could carry him as quickly as he needed to move up. Although his value as an impact, switch-hitting catcher is great enough to allow a team to be patient with his development. He has committed to play for the Texas Longhorns, a college program that is never easy to sway recruits from.

1B

Paulsen was a player I wasn't familiar with until I got the chance to see him play at last summer's Cape Cod League All-Star Game (he started at first base for the West squad). One word came to mind when I watched him play: Smooth. His left-handed swing looks about as good as any could, with very good balance, extension and excellent swing mechanics. The barrel of his bat stays in the zone a long time, which allows him to make consistent, hard contact. He showed that his power translated well to swinging a wood bat on the Cape by finishing second in home runs (8) and RBI (33), fourth in extra-base hits (18) and fifth in slugging (.497). A disciplined and patient eye allows him to draw his fair amount of walks while waiting for his pitch, although so far in college he also has shown the propensity to strike out quite a bit. Smooth also defines his glove, as he looks like he was born to play first base with soft, quick hands, good footwork and a strong arm for the position. Paulsen's overall numbers don't look that pretty, since he didn't have a particularly good freshman season, but finished that year strong, particularly in conference play, and that success carried over to a successful summer playing for the New England Collegiate Baseball League. His emergence during his sophomore year and last summer lead many to believe he is poised for a huge year this spring with Clemson, and so far he’s off to a good start.

2B

As a left-handed hitter Gennett may be the best pure hitter with the best pure approach of any player eligible for the 2009 draft. He doesn't have the greatest size, and may not have the range to stick at shortstop, but he is an athletic player that has very good speed as well as a very strong arm. He handles himself very well at second base, and third base could also be an option given his offensive potential and arm strength, but there’s not reason to move him off of shortstop at this point in time. Gennett's pitch recognition is uncommon for a high school senior, as he exhibits an incredibly polished approach at the plate. He has very good bat speed and can turn on the best of fastballs, and he performed well on the showcase circuit during the summer of 2008, including his participation in the Aflac All-American Classic. Despite his smaller frame, he has good power potential, with a knack for squaring up the ball, and with his speed he should hit plenty of doubles and triples as well. If teams are wary about him due to his size, he could take his talents to Florida State where we likely will be talking about him as a first-rounder for the 2012 draft. San Francisco Giants farmhand Nick Noonan may be an apt comparison for Gennett, as both have been compared to Phillies perennial All-Star and MVP candidate Chase Utley for their polished approaches, left-handed bats and power potential. His given name is Ryan, but Scooter is just too dang cool of a baseball name.

3B

Davidson reclaimed his status as one of the top 10-20 prep players in the nation this past summer after having a disappointing junior season at Yucaipa High School in Southern California. He started the summer showcase season at the Perfect Game National, and ended the summer as an Aflac All-American, where he won the home run derby crown. His best tool is his bat, as he exudes confidence at the plate and shows great extension. He looks and acts like a natural run producer, with very good pull power and the ability to drive the ball to the opposite field. He has the bat speed to catch up with the best fastballs in the nation, and displays a patient, professional approach. Despite his power swing, he covers the plate well and is short and quick to the ball before his bat explodes through the strike zone. Defensively he has improved as well, showing a very strong arm at third base with good footwork. His arm strength allows him to succeed as a pitcher as well, although his value lies in his bat. His speed is average at best, and he could slow down as he continues to fill out and add strength. He has the potential with the bat that a move to first wouldn't hurt his overall value, and he carries a confident cockiness about him that leads one to believe that he is determined to succeed. Now one of the best bats available in the 2009 draft, Davidson has committed to play for USC.

SS

Former Aflac All-American shortstop D.J. LeMahieu is a picture-perfect big-league athlete. I remember noting two and a half years ago druing the summer of 2006 how he had great opposite field power after watching him in the Aflac game, and he continues to employ an inside-out swing playing for LSU. He was a Cape All-Star last summer, and has cemented his status as one of the top prospects available for the 2009 draft, in a year good for shortstops, despite being a draft-eligible sophomore. While his size has always concerned some scouts in regards to whether or not he will be able to stick at shortstop, he continues to show that he can make all of the plays at the position, and his offensive upside makes him an exciting pro prospect. If he does have to move, his offensive potential, where he should continue to develop more in-game power, and arm strength should make the hot corner a good fit. He is having a huge spring so far, hitting for average and power while stealing bases and playing solid defense for the top-ranked Tigers. Draft-eligible sophomores typically are somewhat tricky in regards to the draft, since they do have added negotiating power, but the way LeMahieu has started his sophomore campaign, he could very well be drafted high enough where money isn’t an issue.

OF

An impressive summer hitting with a wood bat on the Cape last summer has really helped Krauss' draft stock. He led the circuit in RBI (34) and OBP (.473) and finished fifth in hitting with a .344 average. His success stems from a polished and disciplined approach at the plate in which he works counts and rarely swings at bad pitches. He has a smooth left-handed swing, and while he has a strong, powerful build, his home run power has yet to develop. The power could very well come as he starts to drive pitches he can handle with greater regularity. Overall he resembles Dennis Raben, although Krauss has better results than Raben had at this point in his college career. Krauss’ approach and productivity may draw comparisons to Kevin Youkilis given the success he enjoyed at the University of Cincinati. While Krauss isn‘t the fastest of players, he moves well for his size, and should settle in as a left fielder. First base also remains an option, although his power would need to develop more for him to be a better fit at the position. He’s off to yet another good start this spring, although the level of competition in the MAC, a good but not great conference, makes some viewers wary of his numbers, despite his success last summer in the Cape.

OF

Goodwin had a very successful summer in which he participated in both the Aflac All-American Classic and the Under Armour Classic, being named the MVP of the Aflac game. Goodwin is the type of player that makes it very obvious when watching him that the game of baseball comes very naturally to him. He does a lot of little things well, and has four legitimate tools, lacking power as the only tool to make him the always coveted five-tool talent. And despite his lack of power, Goodwin will surprise you with his pop from time to time. Most of his power goes to the gaps, and his 6.5 speed allows him to leg out plenty of extra base hits. His bat is made for contact, as he excels at putting the ball in play and going with pitches to drive the ball up the middle and the other way. He is extremely fast out of the box, and gets down the line to first base as a left-handed hitter as well as anyone, allowing him to be a threat on infield grounders and bunt plays. His speed makes him an additional threat on the basepaths, and his overall offensive package profiles perfectly for a leadoff hitting centerfielder. In the outfield he takes good routes on fly balls and has plenty of speed to cover a lot of ground in a hurry. His arm is also a plus tool, and overall he profiles in a very similar fashion to the Pittsburgh Pirates' Andrew McCutchen, or on a more complimentary scale, Kenny Lofton. The icing on the cake is his character, with a great personality and strong leadership qualities. His athleticism and speed allows him to excel in football as well, although his future lies on the baseball diamond. He has committed to North Carolina, a university that has a knack for not letting too many of their recruits slip away, although Goodwin has the talent right now to be considered a legitimate first-rounder.

OF

The first time I saw Marisnick play he reminded me of a right-handed hitting version of Jordan Danks, with a tall yet slender build, long limbs and an exciting blend of power and speed. Unlike Danks, Marisnick is shorter to the ball at the plate, hits for better contact but is equal in his projected power potential. He is an excellent overall athlete, and ranks among the best players in his class in the SPARQ rankings that evaluate a player's physical skills. He is as close to a true five-tool outfielder that the 2009 prep class can offer, and has been playing with and against the best in the nation for several years now. He profiles best in right field, and could be a player more and more people are talking about during the spring if he picks up where he left off during the summer of 2008. He has committed to play for the Oregon Ducks, and is a player to keep an eye on this spring after impressing scouts at the Area Code Games and the Under Armour Classic last summer.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Tyler Matzek	Polished lefty with power arsenal
SP	Alex White	Second best college RHP to Strasburg
SP	Zack Wheeler	Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB
UT	Brooks Raley	Smooth lefty leads A&M; in ERA, BA
C	Luke Bailey	Baseball rat with compact build, swing
1B	Jonathan Singleton	Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat
IF	Ryan Jackson	Slick defender with questions about bat
3B	Jiovanni Mier	True SS with exciting tools
SS	Robbie Shields	2B/3B type with promising bat
OF	Tim Wheeler	Exciting blend of power & speed
OF	LeVon Washington	Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools
OF	Everett Williams	Great athlete with tools galore

more

Dandy Dozen Archives

• 4-30-09
• 4-07-09
• 3-13-09
• 2-28-09

© 2009 ebertdesign.com