5 Tool Talk - Draft-Related Baseball Notes

College Notes 4-26-10

I finally had the chance to catch Anthony Rendon this year after catching him briefly in a couple of games a year ago. He’s my early favorite to go first overall in the 2011 draft, and if he were available, I bet he could give Bryce Harper a run for the number one overall pick this year.

Anthony Rendon

The first thing you notice when watching Rendon play is how much fun he has on the field. He is very animated, and is quick to flash a smile. That energy is evident in the way he plays the game, as he’s a natural both at the plate and in the field at third base. He’s a shorter athlete, but rangy, and I’m sure he could play second base if given the chance. He plays third base now, and made a really nice bare-handed play on a weak infield chopper, showing good balance to pick the ball and make the throw to first to gun down the runner all in one motion.

At the plate his bat speed is just as evident. He only had one hit on this day, which just happened to be a three-run home run on a hanging curveball in the bottom of the eighth inning that allowed Rice to rise ahead of East Carolina, previously down 2-0. In every at-bat prior to that Rendon hit the ball hard, three consecutive line drive outs to the outfield. While he is a very patient hitter, as evidenced by the 48 walks he has drawn this year (currently second-best in the nation), he has an aggressive swing. He allows the ball to travel deep into the zone before striking, and has excellent plate coverage, rarely missing the ball when the bat leaves his shoulder.

Given how hard he hits the ball in seemingly every at-bat and his near MLB ready defense, he reminds me an awful lot of Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman coming out of Virginia a few years ago.

Rick Hague

Entering the spring, Hague was expected to be a first-round pick, but struggles at the plate and on the field has caused his value to drop. At the plate he’s overly aggressive, as he’s whiffed 42 times already this year. Those struggles have carried over to the field, as he’s also committed 22 errors. The strikeouts in particular have been a bugaboo for Hague ever since stepping onto Rice’s campus.

However, he’s an evidently gifted and graceful athlete. The tools are all there for him to put everything together and explode at the next level, but everyone waits for the light switch to go on for him to start doing just that. Even if he can’t stick at shortstop, he has the bat speed to make enough impact at the plate to stick at second or third base, or even centerfield.

He made a bigger impact for the Owls during his freshman and sophomore years, as well as with Team USA last summer, than he has this spring. A premium athlete coming out of high school, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hague return for his senior year to get another chance to put his game together and pick up where he left off last summer.

Hague isn’t the only one struggling to make contact this year, as outfielder Michael Fuda has also put up big numbers in the whiff column with 49 on the year so far. Fuda entered the spring known for his speed/power combo as a former wide receiver that now is focusing entirely on baseball. The output so far this year has been modest, with five doubles, three triples and three home runs, with only four stolen bases in six attempts. He, like Hague, is obviously gifted athletically, with a sturdy, strong and durable build that somewhat reminds me of Gabe Kapler. Like Hague, Fuda very well may be drafted in the early rounds, but could improve his draft status with a big senior campaign if he opts to return to school.

Fellow outfielder Chad Mozingo could also be drafted in the early rounds, although with much more modest tools. He’s a left-handed hitter that swings for contact, has some speed and some defensive versatility with the ability to play all three outfield spots. His upside is likely as a fourth or fifth outfielder at the highest level, but such players still have value.

Mike Ojala

This was the first time I saw Ojala since he has returned from Tommy John surgery, and I was impressed with the way he pitched. He spotted his fastball and curveball very well. His fastball sat in the upper-80s, so obviously his potential is limited if that is where his velocity maxes out, but I really like how he commanded the pitch. He put the ball where he wanted in the strike zone very well, and then was able to snap off some very good overhand curveballs to put batters away. He struck out 10 batters in seven innings of work, and I think Ojala could breeze through the lower levels of the minors given his command alone.

East Carolina boasts a pretty powerful lineup, highlighted by first baseman Kyle Roller. Roller is a hulking left-handed hitter with obvious power potential. He put up big numbers on the Cape last summer, but I question how well he’ll be able to make contact at the next level. He certainly doesn’t get cheated at the plate, but he’ll need to learn how to tone down his swing to avoid striking out 200+ times as a pro.

Outfielder Devin Harris is similar to Roller in that there isn’t much physical projection left in his frame, with a sculpted, muscular and mature build. He also takes some big hacks at the plate as a right-handed hitter, and has enjoyed a productive career for the Pirates.

Right-hander Seth Maness started opposite Ojala, and shut down the Rice lineup before walking Hague and giving up a single to Jeremy Rathjen prior to being removed from the game with two outs in the eighth (prior to Rendon’s three-run shot). Like Ojala, he’s not a flamethrower, working in the 86-90 range, but he snapped off some really nice curveballs. Physically he reminds me of Virginia’s Tyler Wilson, with long, wiry strong legs and a high waist.

Dan Klein

Klein is having a great year for UCLA serving as the team’s closer. He has a very good, athletic build, and a very promising three-pitch repertoire, but doesn’t have the look or the nasty stuff that typically epitomizes a closer. I’m guessing Klein would be starting if it weren’t for UCLA’s impressive overall pitching staff, arguably the best in the nation.

He showed very good fastball command, and topped out at 92, and when he threw closer to 90 his fastball had better, natural sink to it. He threw more changeups than any other pitch, thrown with the exact same arm action and speed as his fastball, making is a very tough pitch to identify out of the hand. It showed very good, natural fade as he pulled the string on the pitch just before it reached the plate.

And just as I wondered where his breaking ball was, he snapped off a very sharp overhand curveball to freeze the hitter and to close out the game. I really liked what I saw from Klein, the first time I had ever seen him pitch. As you can probably tell, I would like to see how he would fare as a starter at the next level. He’s a draft-eligible sophomore, and I could see a team drafting him towards the end of the first round to somewhere in the sandwich round.

Brett Eibner

Eibner was cruising along through the first three innings against the Florida Gators, shutting down a rather potent offense the first time through. He was spotting his fastball very well and snapped off some really good looking curveballs. His fastball is thrown so easily and effortlessly, with one of the easiest, most electric arms available for this year’s draft. The contact induced in those innings was rather weak, with several easy grounders hit to his infielders behind him.

But he wasn’t as sharp in the fourth. He did a good job battling through some early troubles in the frame, and had two outs haven given up only two runs (he gave up an unearned run in the third). He started to miss high and really had a hard time snapping off his curve. The more he elevated his pitches the easier he was to hit, and the Florida hitters took advantage of this and tacked on a couple of more runs before Eibner was chased from the game. As he left the field, it looked as though he was chewing on his fingertips, and I have to wonder if he was dealing with some blister troubles for the sudden change in his effectiveness.

After seeing him play a week prior as a centerfielder, impressing me with his bat speed and natural power potential, I can see why scouts are having such a hard time debating where he fits best. I do think his natural arm strength is his best attribute, meaning that I would lean towards drafting him as a pitcher.

While Eibner hit an RBI double in this game after he was pulled from the mound, Zack Cox and Andy Wilkins went hitless in this game. It was interesting to see them start at second and third base respectively, and for Cox in particular, he proved that he could make all of the routine plays at second, which in my mind helps his case for him to stick at third at the next level.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, watch Florida down the stretch this year and into next year. The core of their lineup will all return next year, anchored by Preston Tucker and Austin Maddox. Nolan Fontana and Brian Johnson have also assumed two key roles in the lineup, and as dangerous as Tucker and Maddox may be, Johnson may be the lineup’s toughest out. And he serves as a weekend starter, as a freshman.

Seth Rosin

Rosin’s a really big fella, physically resembling big-leaguers such as Brad Penny and Jonathan Broxton. He has strong, upper legs and clearly has the build to maintain the rigors of a starting pitcher able to consistently work deep into games.

He threw a lot of fastballs in this game (against Indiana), and commanded the pitch very well. The pitch offered some interesting tail and sink to it, and it didn’t look as any two pitches had the same movement to them. His heavy ball induced quite a few routine grounders, and given the way he attacks hitters he appears to value the importance of pitching to contact, not an easy way to throw successfully in the college game.

He also throws a nice changeup, but didn’t appear to throw too many in this game. It is a very nice complement to his fastball, and is somewhat surprising to see someone as big as he is throw two pitches as polished as they are.

His breaking pitch needs to be tightened up considerably. It’s a loopy curveball that doesn’t offer much break, but he’s successful with it at this stage given the success of his moving fastball and fading change. I could see Rosin taking off at the next level, especially if the right pitching coach is able to teach him a nastier breaking pitch. Given his natural sinking life, he may be better off dropping his arm angle slightly and learning how to throw a slider.

Mike Kvasnicka

The ability to switch hit and play catcher is elevating Kvasnicka’s draft stock this spring. He also has done an excellent job commanding the strike zone this spring, as strikeouts were previously one of his weaknesses. He is a great natural athlete with good bat speed and power potential from both sides of the plate.

In this game he hit a pair of doubles, although one was aided by the troublesome roof of the Metrodome on a popup that barely left the infield. There have been some rumblings that he could sneak into the late first or sandwich rounds, but I don’t think he creeps quite that high. He’s a solid second round pick, and I think is a better fit in right field than behind the plate.

Tony Thompson

Thompson was the triple crown winner in the Big 12 a year ago, and his season was slow to start this year opening the season with a fractured kneecap. He has been slow to find his rhythm at the plate, and won’t come close to matching his huge numbers from a year ago, but I liked what I saw from him at the plate.

He uses somewhat of a crouched stance, and using long, powerful limbs has excellent extension and power potential. Given his size and swing you may think that he strikes out far more than he should, but he actually handles the strike zone very well, and does a good job working pitchers deep into counts to wait for his pitch.

I don’t think he stays at third base, but that isn’t a decision that needs to be made anytime soon. He’s a good enough athlete to move to a corner outfield spot as opposed to across the diamond at first base. He wasn’t overly productive in this game, although he did a nice job going with a high fastball and lacing an RBI single the opposite way. I’m not sure if he has the bat speed to be a premier run producer at the next level, but he has the size and the tools and natural sense at the plate to make the necessary adjustments at the next level.

Cody Asche isn’t draft-eligible until next year, but he started at third base for Nebraska in this game against Kansas. He has a modest build, built like a pole with not much difference from his upper body to his lower body. He shows a very good eye at the plate and a natural sense for the batter’s box. Like Thompson, he didn’t do much in this game, but you could tell he’s a very good natural hitter from the left-side of the plate. He likely will max out around 20 home runs per year, but I could see him hitting 30-35 doubles per year, and defensively he looked very natural at third base, with good instincts and a strong arm. Like Rendon above, I’m guessing Asche could handle second base as well.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft