5 Tool Talk - Draft-Related Baseball Notes

College Notes 5-16-10

I had the pleasure of catching two really intriguing pitching matchups over the weekend. One between Matt Harvey of North Carolina and Danny Hultzen of Virginia, and the other between Alabama’s Jimmy Nelson and Ole Miss’ Aaron Barrett.

Matt Harvey

Harvey arrived at North Carolina with huge expectations, who went unsigned drafted out of high school in the third round of the 2007 draft by the Angels. I know Baseball America actually had Harvey rated higher than Rick Porcello entering the spring of 2007 before more questions started to surface about Harvey while Porcello dominated his competition.

And while Harvey has continued to throw hard, things haven’t gone as well as expected. Fortunately he has started to put together his game at the right time, as he has pushed his name back into the consideration for the first round. Questions still linger about his mechanics, and after seeing him pitch this weekend I can see why those concerns exist. He does land upright and throw across his body some. His delivery right now looks made more for short relief, and while he could very well develop into a dominant closer, if a team is going to taken him in the middle of the first round, they want him taking the ball every fifth day.

He has great size and a great fastball. That pitch sat in the 93-95 range in the first inning and touched 96. He settled in at 91-93 for much of the game and was still throwing 91-92 in the eighth. He struggled to get consistent, tight break on his breaking ball, which was a cross between a slider and a curveball. I’ve seen the pitch better on other days, so I know it has more promise than what I saw it on this day, and it is a power offering thrown in the upper-70s to low-80s.

His changeup impressed me on this day, a pitch he really pulled the string on well, thrown with the exact same arm speed as his fastball and giving hitters another good pitch to contend with. He did a nice job settling down during the fourth through seventh innings after giving up runs in each of the first two innings and before he started to lose a little steam late. he went the distance, giving, staying in the game after the Tar Heels tied up the game at two in the top of the ninth, only to lose it in the bottom of the frame.

I’m a little split on Harvey because I honestly don’t know how early I would take if I had a pick. It’s impossible not to like his arm, but it’s difficult to like his delivery.

Brian Goodwin

I was a big fan of Goodwin’s a year ago coming out of high school. He made his strong, in-state commitment to North Carolina pretty clear, and he flourished on the showcase circuit during the summer of 2008, excelling at both the Aflac game in PETCO Park, and the Under Amour game in Wrigley Field.

For as good as all of his tools were, it seemed as though he had difficult hitting left-handed pitching. And for as good as his freshman year has been going this year, it seems as though he continues to struggle to make the proper adjustments against lefties. Between Wake Forest starter Austin Stadler and Virginia ace Danny Hultzen, Goodwin had difficult catching up to their fastballs and making the proper adjustments to their timing. He did drive a fastball off of Wake Forest reliever Eli Robins, also a southpaw.

Goodwin is hitting .284 this weekend, with 22 extra-base hits that include six triples and six home runs. His 53 RBI lead the team, and while he has drawn 41 walks this season, he also has whiffed 43 times. For as much speed as he has, he only has five stolen bases, although I expect that to change in future years at UNC as he likely will move up the batting order. He’s only a freshman, and isn’t draft eligible until 2012, when I fully expect him to be a first-round pick.

Danny Hultzen

Hultzen wasn’t particularly sharp in this contest, at least not with his command, but his stuff still looked good. He is a tall and lanky left with long, strong legs pitching from a wide base. For as good as his command is, his fastball touched 93 more than a handful of times, and sat in the 90-92 range during his five innings of work. He caught both the inside and outside corner with this pitch a few times, and also threw it by a pair of Tar Heels for punchouts.

His slider is just as good, a pitch that doesn’t have wicked two-plane break, but shows late life and dives out of the strike zone at the last moment. He throws the pitch 80-81. By the third inning he also started to mix in a curveball that he intentionally kept in his back pocket to give hitters something else to look at and think about the second and third time through the lineup. The pitch lacks tight break, but it’s serves the purpose given the way he uses it. He can also throws a solid changeup, giving him a well-rounded four-pitch arsenal.

Hultzen was removed after five innings, tossing 116 innings since as noted above he did not have his best command on this day and tossed a few long innings. I got to catch Hultzen several times a year ago, especially towards the end of the year as he was a big part of Virginia’s surge towards Omaha. His poise and his command have always been impressive, and I was reminded that his fastball and slider are two really good pitches, as he will be talked about quite a bit between now and a year from now amongst the candidates for the top 10 overall picks.

Jarrett Parker, Steven Proscia, Dan Grovatt, Phil Gosselin and Tyler Cannon create a pretty formidable lineup and along with their pitching staff is a big reason why they’re ranked as high as they are nationally. I like Proscia at the plate the most in this group, although he’s the only one that isn’t draft eligible this year. Parker has the best tools as a potential five-tool centerfielder. I could see Gosselin making a solid professional career for himself as prototypical number two hitter with some versatility on the field. Grovatt has a powerful swing, but is limited defensively. Cannon is going to have to make it by his versatility on defense, and given his arm strength I could see a team try to convert him into a catcher.

Branden Kline and Kevin Arico combined to toss the final four innings for the Cavaliers. Kline is a freshman, similar to fellow bullpen mate Tyler Wilson in size and stuff. He has a lithe, wiry strong build, smooth delivery and a loose, live arm. His fastball peaked at 93 and didn’t drop below 88, and he also threw a sharp low-80s slider. I definitely see Kline, who has made a few starts this year, settling into the weekend rotation next year.

Arico has 13 saves and has been a solid closer for Virginia both this year and last. He doesn’t throw as hard at Kline, but gets outs more by changing speeds with his slider and changeup. He also throws from a low three-quarters delivery that offers a fair amount of deception. The lack of a powerful fastball limits his future potential.

Jimmy Nelson

Nelson was one of my preseason sleepers to make some noise this year and finally start to build off of his promise. He has been doing just that, and tossed the first complete game of his college career against Ole Miss on Saturday.

He doesn’t throw particularly hard, maxing out 92 and sitting in the 88-91 range. His fastball offered more late life when he pitched at 87-88, and for the most part he did a good job staying down in the zone. He was still throwing 90 in the sixth, and was 86-88 by the ninth. His slider is throw with the same arm action and delivery as his fastball, making it that much more difficult to pick up. His 11-to-5 groundout to flyout ratio supports his profile as a prototypical sinker-slider pitcher.

That of course means his upside isn’t the highest, but his step forward this year has been encouraging. He has a large frame, and his arm action appears to be clean, meaning he should be able to pitch consistently deep into ballgames. The more he pitches to contact against wood bats at the next level the more success he could have given his approach.

Aaron Barrett

Barrett is very similar to Nelson, with a big, sturdy build and an equally powerful slider. Barrett also didn’t throw his fastball particularly hard, topping out at 90 mph and sitting comfortably at 88. He has pitched harder than that in the past, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him re-gain that velocity on his heater if he were drafted and developed as a short reliever. His slider is a neutralizing pitch, and since his delivery and arm action is somewhat max effort, it may allow him to maximize his potential.

He matched Nelson pitch-for-pitch despite walking seven batters. He didn’t allow a hit until the seventh, which was on an infield bunt single. He was removed from the inning with two outs after giving up an RBI double to Clay Jones.

Brett Mooneyham

Stanford’s ace is a tough prospect to get a good read on. He has great stuff for a lefty, with a big, strong build and the ability to miss bats. His fastball sits in the low-90s with the ability to reach higher than that frequently. I’ve seen his stuff work for him better than it did on this day. His changeup wasn’t doing much for him and he struggled to find the grip on his curveball. His arm noticeably slowed down when he wasn’t throwing his fastball, and he frequently sped up his arm and overthrew his fastball.

For such pitchers you always try to figure out what is holding them back from putting it all together when they are so immensely talent. Mooneyham’s former Cardinal teammate Jeff Inman was similar given his own talents yet inability to pitch up to his stuff. The only thing I can think of that may be holding Mooneyham back is patience. It seems as though he’s trying to strike out the side with one pitch instead of recognizing the importance of setting pitchers up and setting them down. I don’t know if that is necessarily true, and I look forward to seeing him pitch a few more times between now and a year from now, as he’s a projected first-round pick for the 2011 draft.

Kenny Diekroeger

Diekroeger, like Goodwin, is enjoying a solid freshman campaign and could be among the candidates as discussed for the top five to 10 overall picks. He’s a well built athlete, well-proportioned and strong similar to Troy Tulowitzki in stature. He only had one hit in this game, a two-run triple when he yanked a curveball down the left field line for a two-run triple late in the game. He did show good bat speed and very good extension. I think similar to college players in recent years such as Pedro Alvarez and Anthony Rendon, Diekroeger could very well put up great numbers three consecutive years before becoming draft eligible for 2012.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Cameron Bedrosian	Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP	Ryne Stanek	Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP	Seth Blair	Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP	Zach Cates	Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP	Jesse Biddle	Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL	Kevin Munson	Power closer with big FB, SL
CL	Chance Ruffin	Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C	Kellin Deglan	Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF	Kellen Sweeney	Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS	Mason Williams	Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF	Drew Smyly	Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF	Ryan LaMarre	Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft