Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

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Red Hot Green Wave

This story originally appeared on PG Crosschecker. Please visit it here.

March 24th was the last time I wrote about one of my preseason sleepers breaking out this year. At the time, Tulane’s Rob Segedin was leading the nation in doubles with 17, and he also had three home runs. Since then his doubles pace has slowed (he had 24 at last report), and the rest of the nation had caught up as he’s now tied for second in the nation. He was sporting a very impressive hitting line of .439/.510/.780 and looked as though he was continuing his reputation as one of the nation’s finer hitters.

He was just getting started.

The batting average and on-base percentage are roughly the same now (.424/.505), but beginning in early April his power production has significantly jumped up Segedin got locked in. At the end of last weekend, he was sitting on an 18-game hit streak (which came to an end Tuesday night against Louisiana-Monroe) in which he went 35-for-65 (.538) with seven doubles, a triple and 10 home runs. He hit a home run in five consecutive games at one point during that streak, and went 10 games in a row with an extra-base knock.

His slugging percentage was up to .818, fourth-best in the nation, and the only notable draft-eligible prospects in the country with a higher batting average than him at this point are Cal State Fullerton’s Gary Brown (.450) and Arkansas’ Zack Cox (.443).

This is a particularly encouraging statistical progression for a hitter who previously was known more for his ability to drive the ball from gap-to-gap while getting slapped with the usual “untapped power potential” label.

Segedin has always been a good hitter. He hit the ground running upon arriving at Tulane, leading the team with a .322 average his freshman year. He slugged .485 that season, with 18 doubles and six home runs, but struggled in limited playing time the summer that followed on the Cape.

2009 finished much better than it started, as a lower back injury limited his true sophomore year to just five games. He successfully returned for summer action, as he hit .412 during a limited stint with Team USA and then .304 for the Cape champion Bourne Braves. That said, at the end of last summer, aside from the six dingers Segedin hit during his freshman year, he had only one other home run to his credit between his spring and summer exploits.

The explosion at the plate is a welcome development in a year light on bats, as the reports about his swing and overall approach at the plate have always been positive. He has managed the strike zone very well, drawing more walks than strikeouts in each of his three years at Tulane, doing the same for Bourne last summer.

With 13 errors at the hot corner, his defense continues to be a concern. More than likely he will be moved to a corner outfield position down the road, where his arm strength should continue to be an asset.

Wherever he plays, he is one of the best pure hitters available in this year’s draft class, and with more and more teams placing a greater value on the hit tool these days, don’t be surprised to see his name called very early on draft day.

Dandy Dozen

SP
 Mike Foltynewicz Big IL prep RHP with improving stuff
SP
 Addison Reed Closer turned starter having big spring
SP
 Peter Tago Wiry strong prep righty with electric arm
UT
 Kolbrin Vitek Small school 2-way star with big bat, arm
C
 Stefan Sabol Athletic with potent bat-may end up in OF
1B
 Christian Yelich Sweet lefty stroke, one of draft's best bats
2B
 Chris Bisson Shorter, sparkplug 2B with good wheels
SS
 Marcus Littlewood Polished SS with good D', promising bat
3B
 Tony Thompson Big bodied slugger with potent RH bat
OF
 Marcus Knecht Nice power/speed combo from juco ranks
OF
 Ty Linton Power prospect could pursue football
OF
 Mike Kvasnicka Athletic swith-hitter could play catcher

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