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Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

Dandy Dozen

Welcome to the Dandy Dozen. Periodically I am going to highlight 12 players that catch my interest. A starting lineup with a trio of starters and a closer, or utility player, make up the Dandy Dozen.

SP

Shelby Miller is quickly making a name for himself, although you could argue that people weren't paying attention before the summer hit, as he tossed three consecutive no-hitters during the spring, the last of which was a perfect game. Last fall in Jupiter, Florida at the WWBA World Championship, Miller tossed two games, both of which he recorded 94 mph with his fastball. His fastball velocity sits in the 88-92 range, and he does a good job maintaining that velocity deep into ballgames. Since he has already enjoyed a spike, many believe that he will only add more to his heater given his size, frame and easy delivery, as it isn't crazy to think that he will be throwing 94 with greater regularity in the next few years. His curveball and changeup are also solid pitches, and he throws all three pitches for strikes. He knows how to change speeds, working his secondary offerings off of the success of his fastball unlike most high school players exhibit. Like almost all prep players, he has some mechanical issues to improve, but nothing that is considered serious. As Matthew Purke and Tyler Matzek are creating a debate as to which one is the top pre lefty in the nation, Miller's emergence is creating a similar debate between he and Jacob Turner among the nation's righties. Miller has committed to play for Texas A&M.;

SP

I was a big fan of left-handed pitcher Mike Minor when he was one of the top prospects coming out of Tennessee eligible for the 2006 draft. He slid to the 13th round due to his commitment to Vanderbilt, and at the time was pitching in the 85-88 range with an effortless delivery and refined changeup. Minor still appears to throw effortlessly, and his velocity now consistently sits in the 88-91 range, touching 92-93, particularly early in games. He commands his fastball extremely well, and also mixes in a very good changeup that gives him an excellent two-pitch arsenal. His changeup is thrown with the exact same arm speed and angle as his fastball, which makes it that much more difficult to identify, and gives him a legitimate out pitch against right-handed batters. His breaking ball hasn't progressed as well, and was the biggest mark against him coming out of high school. When I saw him pitch during his freshman year at Vanderbilt, when he quickly went from being a mid-week starter to the Commodores Saturday starter following David Price during weekend series, he was throwing a slider. Since last year, he has started to throw a true curveball. While the pitch shows good break, his arm speed does slow down making it easier to recognize out of the hand. His fastball-changeup combo is good enough to allow him to succeed, but mastering that third pitch could be the difference in him being a great starter as opposed to a good one. Minor follows some pretty good left-handed pitchers that have come out of Vanderbilt in recent years which includes the aforementioned David Price as well as Ryan Mullins and Jeremy Sowers. While he doesn't profile as a true staff ace due to the lack of intimidating raw stuff, it's hard to argue with his results, and few pitchers available for the 2009 draft command the strike zone as well as Minor does.

SP

Gibson is the latest in a recent trend of talented, hard-throwing right-handed pitchers, following fellow draft-eligible righty Aaron Crow and current big-leaguer Max Scherzer. While both of those two pitchers were all about their power fastballs, Gibson's claim to fame is an absolutely wicked slider that could profile as the single best pitch of those thrown by '09 draft eligibles. And that isn't to say Gibson doesn't throw hard. He sits in the upper-80s to low-90s, and can max out around 93-94. His fastball can straighten out, and he struggles to command the pitch at times, often relying far too much on his slider than he should. His changeup also shows the potential to be a plus-pitch, giving him a solid three-pitch repertoire. Built tall and lean, Gibson has very long, skinny yet strong limbs and a narrow waist. With wide shoulders and solid through the waist, there is plenty of room for Gibson to fill out and continue to add strength. His arm action works wells, although he can overthrow his fastball, which, as noted above, causes him to fall a little too much in love with his slider. With a big, angular leg kick, Gibson's delivery can be on the slow side, even out of the stretch, which makes him easier to run off of, but that hasn't been as big of a problem during his college career given his knack for limiting baserunners. He has all of the talent to succeed at the highest of levels, but my biggest concerns with Gibson at this point in time have to do with his fastball. A little added movement to go along with more confidence in the pitch will allow him to succeed more as a starter. If he continues to rely on his slider to succeed, he could end up in a short-relief role, a role he is plenty familiar with since only 23 of his 68 appearances during his college career, which includes one summer spent on the Cape and another with Team USA, have been as a starter. That's not the worst thing in the world, since his slider and stature are quite similar to those of Brad Lidge.

UT

Two-way threat Mychal Givens entered the summer of 2008 with more favoring his bat and his glove as a potential five-tool shortstop than those wowed by his natural and easy arm strength. I think the numbers shifted in favor of his promise on the mound after he consistently showed off the strongest, most electric arm at the biggest showcase and tournament events while playing with and against the best players in the nation. He needed only two pitches to record a pair of outs at the Aflac All-American Classic, the first of which clocked at 96 mph. He has a very quick, whip-like arm, and he shows very good composure on the mound. There is some deception to his delivery, and his fastball, which can approach triple digits, exhibits some late, sinking life. As hard as it is to hit his fastball, he also can unleash a wicked slider that drops down and away from right-handed batters. As a defender he has fast-twitch actions, very good range at the shortstop position and a strong arm. At the plate he has good bat speed and overall power potential, although I noticed he does have the tendency to swing down on balls. On the bases he has enough speed to be considered a consistent base-stealing threat. Overall I'm a little concerned about his ability to hit for average at the next level, which only augments his value as a pitcher. While he does have two knockout pitches, I am a little concerned that his delivery and stuff may be best suited in a short relief role down the road. Of course such decisions don't have to be made anytime soon, as it would be hard to nitpick while passing up on such an impressive athletic talent.

C

Bailey has the talent to become a top 10 overall pick when next June rolls around. There isn't anything that he doesn't do well, although his game is probably highlighted by his bat speed and overall offensive potential. He looks like a natural when standing in the batter's box, with naturally sloped shoulders and strong hands, wrists and forearms that gives him his good bat speed. He has exciting home run power potential with the ability to hit for a high average as well. Bailey is no slouch behind the plate either. He has an incredibly strong arm which neutralizes the opposing running game, he blocks balls well, exhibits good quickness and shows good leadership skills in handling a pitching staff. He has caught some of the best pitchers in the nation, and was an Aflac All-American. If there is such thing as a five-tool catcher, Bailey is probably it. He has committed to play for Auburn.

1B

Poythress had a huge year giving Gordon Beckham protection in the Bulldogs lineup last year, hitting .374 with 15 bombs. Scouts and college baseball fans were anxious to see how Poythress would follow-up this year without Gordon Beckham hitting in front of him, and he has responded with a Golden Spikes caliber season of his own. He has a huge, hulking frame with strong proportions throughout. He is similar in size and strength to Louisville's Chris Dominguez, and like Dominguez Poythress has also spent some time at the hot corner during his college career. He made the switch across the diamond last year to first, where he profiles best at the next level. Unlike Dominguez, despite his hulking size, he exhibits good bat control and plate coverage. He walked more than he struck out last year, and is doing so this year as well. His power is to all fields, and he should also hit for a fairly high average at the next level. Defensively he is nimble around the first base bag, shows a strong arm and should be considered an asset at the position. It may not matter what he does with his glove, as his bat is what is going to carry him.

IF

Perez is a fast-twitch, athletic middle infielder that follows in a long line of talented professional prospects from Gulliver Prep in Miami, Florida. His game is highlighted by his defense, as few in the country can pick it like he can. He has incredible first-step quickness and range, and moves well to both his left and his right. He shows good arm strength that should allow him to stick at the shortstop position, and he makes every play look easy. He is a switch-hitter that shows more power and a more natural swing from the left-side of the plate, but he exhibits a pretty good approach from both sides. While he is more of a contact and gap hitter at this point in time, many expect that his power will develop as he continues to mature and fill out his frame. He has committed to play for Miami, where he could be in line to replace Ryan Jackson, who had a similar profile at a similar stage in his career.

3B

Myers could become this year's version of Tyler Chatwood, in that he is an incredible athletic and versatile player that could play almost anywhere on the field, if his value is higher as a positional prospect than it is as a pitcher. At this point in time scouts seem to prefer his upside as a power/power third baseman or possibly even as a catcher. He has very easy power as a right-handed hitter, as the ball jumps off his bat. He has strong hands and wrists that gives him good bat speed, and a trained eye that allows him to hit for a high average. His arm strength is a plus tool, and a big reason why he may get a chance to be developed behind the plate. He has a tall, projectable build that could allow him to get bigger and stronger over the next three to five years. On the mound he touches the mid-90s and shows pretty solid secondary offerings. He has committed to play for South Carolina.

SS

When covering the 2005 Aflac All-American Classic, Grant Green was a popular subject when talking about the top prospects available for the 2006 draft with the scouts and college recruiters in attendance. His athleticism was obvious, and scouts knew he had the complete package. He was a little slow to develop, and at the time there were some concerned that his body type and size would necessitate a move to third base down the road, and his swing was a tad long. Three years later, Green's value has exploded by showing five true tools, putting up impressive numbers, and silencing critics about his ability to stick at the shortstop position. That "tad-long" swing allows him to get great extension at the plate, the source of his power potential, and he has shown he can make the necessary adjustments swinging a wood bat in his two summers playing on the Cape. This past summer he finished second in the league in slugging percentage (.547), third in hits (56), doubles (12) and extra-base hits (19), while finishing fourth in hitting (.348) and fifth in on-base percentage (.451). Green showcases the rare combination of size, power and speed, making him an exciting, new generation, big-bodied shortstop prospect who has received comparisons to Troy Tulowitzki. Despite getting off to a slow start this year before righting the ship, he continues to get better and better with every stop he makes, and could be among the top three to five players taken next June. He will be advised by Scott Boras, a recurring theme among the top players eligible for the 2009 draft, so you never know where he will be drafted.

OF

Kentrail Davis has always been able to hit, and was one of my favorite prospects available for the 2007 draft. A former Aflac All-American, he dropped to the 14th round in the draft after missing some time during his senior year after being involved in a car accident, which also effected his productivity. His affiliation with Scott Boras also creates questions about his signability, and as a draft-eligible sophomore he could slide yet again in next year's draft should he choose to maximize his projected payday during his junior year at Tennessee. Davis is an exciting all-around offensive player. He is very well built for such a short (5'9") ballplayer, and is at his best lacing line drives from gap-to-gap while also having respectable home run power. He has a patient approach at the plate, and commands the strike zone well. Once he is on the basepaths he is a threat to steal, and he profiles as a left-handed version of Shannon Stewart. Davis could fit in almost any lineup as either a leadoff, two-hole or three-hole hitter. Despite having very good speed, his defense isn't as polished as his offense, as he's probably limited to left field at the professional level due to less than ideal instincts and a below average throwing arm. He was the best positional prospect of those that participated with Team USA last summer, and led the team in hitting coming off of his freshman year before leaving the team due to a wrist injury.

OF

Donovan Tate has the physical presence, good looks and the personality that causes people to turn their heads when he walks into a room. He is a two-sport star that is the son of legendary former Georgia Bulldogs running back Lars Tate, who spent a few years in the NFL with the Buccaneers. Tate hasn't yet decided which sport he will focus on, but many believe he will end up with baseball. He did declare towards the end of the summer that he was going to give up football, but changed his mind a few days later, likely being advised that his dual-sport aspirations could lead to a bigger payday. Like his father, he plays running back, and is being recruited by several prominent national programs asking him to play for them in both sports. On the baseball field Tate is a true five-tool athlete. He has a very strong arm, very good speed and very good power potential. His power comes from a lightning quick bat that can catch up with the hardest of fastballs. He profiles in a similar fashion to Cameron Maybin from a few years ago, although Tate's football body gives him a more intimidating, physical presence. He also shows an advanced sense for the game, although despite all of his tools, he does have some holes in his swing at this point in time. That of course is not uncommon for a player at his age, but he isn't as refined of a hitter as some of his peers. His commitment to baseball may be reinforced by his alliance with Scott Boras, who definitely will use his two-sport value to drive up his pricetag. Boras advisees are never afraid to walk away from a deal and attend college, although Tate has yet to commit to a school. On talent alone, Tate could go among the top three to five overall selections in next June's draft.

OF

Den Dekker has an exciting blend of size, speed, power and defense. A great natural athlete, he is built like a big-league player, and fits the mold of those that fall under the frequently used comparison to Steve Finley. He played for Team USA last summer, although he had difficulty hitting with a wood bat. He had a big, long swing that leads to him swinging and missing far too often and not hitting for contact as much as he could. Once he learns to shorten his swing he is going to hit for a higher average and become a much more effective hitter. When he does make contact he has a fair amount of over the fence power, and enough speed to leg out his share of doubles and triples. He covers good ground in centerfield, and has a solid average arm for the position. His tools are good enough for a team to take a chance at him in the early rounds, and so far he is enjoying a solid spring during his junior year. He has recently been plugged into the leadoff spot atop the Gators' lineup, and has done a nice job energizing the entire team to somewhat of a surprising season in college baseball.

Dandy Dozen

SP	Tyler Matzek	Polished lefty with power arsenal
SP	Alex White	Second best college RHP to Strasburg
SP	Zack Wheeler	Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB
UT	Brooks Raley	Smooth lefty leads A&M; in ERA, BA
C	Luke Bailey	Baseball rat with compact build, swing
1B	Jonathan Singleton	Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat
IF	Ryan Jackson	Slick defender with questions about bat
3B	Jiovanni Mier	True SS with exciting tools
SS	Robbie Shields	2B/3B type with promising bat
OF	Tim Wheeler	Exciting blend of power & speed
OF	LeVon Washington	Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools
OF	Everett Williams	Great athlete with tools galore

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Dandy Dozen Archives

• 4-30-09
• 4-07-09
• 3-13-09
• 2-28-09

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