Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft

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Stable of Arms for 2011 Draft

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It’s no secret that the 2010 draft appears to be very thin when it comes to impact bats, and even the most prominent bat that is available, Bryce Harper, doesn’t get mentioned without some concerns about certain aspects to his game.

How several of the more promising hitters at the high school level progress over the next several months will be key to the overall depth in this year’s draft, and there is enough talent there to make some headway.

Next year’s draft class does offer Rice third baseman Anthony Rendon, who already is being put in the same conversation with some of the biggest and best college hitters to emerge in recent years. Rendon may be most similar to former Virginia Cavalier and current Washington National Ryan Zimmerman, in that his game seems to be incredibly well rounded. Rendon can hit, hit for power, and he offers a slick glove and a strong arm from the hot corner. Like Zimmerman, it is believed that Rendon could play shortstop in a pinch, and may even settle down at second base. He’s good enough at third and his bat plays well enough there to not get cute in trying to figure out where he could play.

While there is one bat that will help define the 2011 draft and give more promise to the overall depth on both the hitting and pitching side, there is a wealth of arms from the college level that is going to be available.

When I think of draft years in which college arms set the tone, I think of 2004. That year was highlighted by Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver and the unparalleled Rice trio of Phillip Humber, Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend. Eight of the top 13 picks were college pitchers that year, and 13 college pitchers overall were selected in the first round.

The talent available for the 2011 draft is equally deep, with a nice variety of righties, lefties as well as power and polished arms.

It will be a long time before we see a group of college pitchers that can match the once-hyped Rice trio as listed above, but two schools do offer a very intriguing pair of dynamic duos that will make travel plans slightly easier for scouts next spring.

Gerrit Cole at this point is the cream of the 2011 draft crop, rivaled only by Rendon as the favorite to go first overall. His stuff is comparable to that of Verlander’s from the ’04 draft, as is his inconsistent command at a similar stage in their careers.

Fellow ’11 draft-eligible righty Trevor Bauer will follow Cole in the weekend rotation this spring at UCLA, and while he doesn’t throw as hard, he sits in the low-90s and offers better command and overall repertoire. Those two, along with junior lefty Rob Rasmussen, form one of the better weekend rotations in the nation.

While Cole possesses the best pure arm in the nation in any class, Vanderbilt sophomore teammates Sonny Gray and Jack Armstrong, also teammates on the 2007 Aflac All-American team, offer a more intimidating one-two punch.

Gray’s arm may rival Cole’s, even though Gray continues to be scrutinized for his less than ideal 5-foot-11 frame. He, too, lights up radar guns and offers an equally neutralizing breaking pitch. He joined Cole on the Team USA squad last summer, where both may return this coming summer to help cement their status as premium, first-round picks for the following year’s draft.

Stature isn’t a problem for the 6-foot-6, 225-pound Armstrong, whose stuff began to catch up with his size last summer on the Cape. Armstrong impresses me the most in that his command is what caught my attention the most the first time I was able to see him pitch, and at that point in time he topped out in the upper-80s. Now throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s, he looks to carry his success from the Cape to his sophomore campaign, and if that success continues he could push his name into the discussion for the first overall pick in 2011.

Circle the weekend of March 26-28 on your calendar for an exciting SEC showdown as Kentucky visits Vanderbilt, as there will be plenty of talented arms on display, regardless of what happens with Kentucky lefty James Paxton. If Paxton continues to be suspended from play, sophomore righty Alex Meyer may challenge junior lefty Logan Darnell for the nod as the Friday ace. If Paxton does play, those three will form one of the most dominant weekend rotations.

Now listed at 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Meyer has the size and stuff that could draw comparisons to Jeff Niemann. Meyer has always thrown hard, and has the body size and looseness in his arm to maintain his velocity deep into ballgames. He was challenged as a freshman by being immediately inserted into the Wildcats’ weekend starting staff, and that experience should allow him to take a significant step forward this year.

Staying on the theme of tall, projectable power arms, Texas’ Taylor Jungmann had a freshman season matched by few in the nation. On a loaded Longhorns’ staff, Jungmann may be good enough to earn Friday starting honors this coming year. He led Texas in both wins (11) and ERA (2.00) a year ago, and has a rare combination of size, stuff and command.

(It should also be noted that Armstrong, Cole, Gray, Jungmann and Meyer were all participants at the 2007 Aflac All-American Classic.)

Add one more towering, fire-ballling righty to the mix of those eligible to go in the first round of the 2011 draft: Georgia’s Cecil Tanner. Georgia’s depth in pitching may allow the team to use him as either its closer, set-up man or both, as he and equally towering lefty Alex McRee could give the Bulldogs the most intimidating bullpen to deal with in games that are close and late. If he remains in a late-inning role, Tanner may follow in the footsteps of big-bodied closers with equally big arms in Jonathan Broxton and Bobby Jenks.

Like lefties? The 2011 draft has those to offer as well, from fire-balling Matt Purke to the crafty, two-way talents of Danny Hultzen.

Purke may be considered a bonus to the ’11 draft class as a draft-eligible sophomore. He was once thought to be signed by the Texas Rangers as their first-round pick in last year’s draft, only to honor his commitment to TCU. Built lean and wiry strong, Purke offers command of a solid overall repertoire. While you always have to temper your expectations with freshmen, the Horned Frogs are confident that Purke will hit the ground running.

Big-bodied lefty Brett Mooneyham was considered to be one of the top prep lefties available for the 2008 draft, but agent affiliation and a strong academic commitment to Stanford made him nearly unsignable. During his freshman season he continued to show that he had swing-and-miss stuff (72 strikeouts in 67 innings of work), but also showed that he had a long ways to go with his control (54 walks). If he harnesses his power three-pitch arsenal between now and the 2011 draft he may be considered among the top three to five overall selections.

From a relatively smaller school comes Gonzaga’s Ryan Carpenter, who like Mooneyham offers a tall, intimidating presence on the mound at 6-foot-5. Carpenter’s fastball sits in the low-90s, and his overall command and the bite on his slider saw significant improvement last summer in the Alaska League, where he led the circuit in ERA (0.67).

Nick Maronde was considered a premium talent coming out of high school, eligible for the 2008 draft, but once again, agent affiliation and his commitment to Florida caused him to drop to the 43rd round. He showed the ability to both miss bats (59 strikeouts) and command the strike zone (18 walks) in 61 innings as he was used in a versatile swing role for the Gators. He has a good build and a solid repertoire, with an upper-80s to low-90s fastball, curveball and advanced changeup. Unlike Mooneyham and Carpenter, Maronde already shows considerable pitching guile, with the ability to change speeds while commanding the strike zone to get ahead early in counts.

You wouldn’t know that two-way talent Danny Hultzen was a freshman a year ago by looking at his stats. He led the starting staff in ERA (2.17), innings (95.1), starts (16) and strikeouts (107), and shared the team lead in wins (9) while hitting .327. He played a big role in the Cavaliers’ College World Series run and is also a big reason why Virginia opens the season as one of the top teams in the nation. With good command of an upper-80s to low-90s fastball, as well as a good overhand curve, scouts currently project Hultzen’s professional future brighter as a pitcher than as a hitter.

With no logistical changes expected to be made to the draft until 2012, which includes proposed hard slotting, representation will continue to make things interesting in 2011. Cole, Meyer, Purke, Mooneyham and Maronde were all advised by Scott Boras coming out of high school and will likely command bonuses that exceed the commissioner’s current recommended signing bonuses.

There are a few more pitchers that are considered good candidates to go in the first round, and of course there will be a few more to emerge not only this coming season, but also this coming summer. To have as many names listed above to be considered virtual locks to go in the first round of the draft, 16 months before the fact, means the 2011 draft has the chance to be pretty special.

Dandy Dozen

SP
 Cameron Bedrosian Son of Steve with big-league curve
SP
 Ryne Stanek Projectable RHP on the rise with big FB
SP
 Seth Blair Sinker/slider RHP with improve velocity
SP
 Zach Cates Former catcher showing big-time arm
SP
 Jesse Biddle Big lefty throwing more in the 90s
CL
 Kevin Munson Power closer with big FB, SL
CL
 Chance Ruffin Son of Bruce has thrived in closer role
C
 Kellin Deglan Good D' tools with improving lefty bat
IF
 Kellen Sweeney Athletic IF with sweet lefty swing
SS
 Mason Williams Speedy, toolsy former CF on the rise
OF
 Drew Smyly Power prospect also strong armed QB
OF
 Ryan LaMarre Five-tool CF prospect from Big Ten

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