Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft
Big 12 Arms Race
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College pitching is going to define the 2009 draft. Positional players are down, particularly at the college level, but polished arms are plentiful. Stephen Strasburg of course headlines the class, but there are plenty of promising pitchers to take after him from the college ranks.
The Big 12 in particular is going to be supplying a lot of the premium pitching talent to the professional ranks, highlighted by a handful of power arms and a handful more that earn their keep through pitching guile and well-rounded repertoires.
Texas isn’t just leading the conference in ERA, they’re blowing everyone else away. With a staff ERA of 2.14, they are limiting opposing teams to nearly two runs fewer per game than the conference’s runner-up, Kansas State, who boast a 3.98 collective team mark.
And the Longhorns won’t be contributing much talent to the 2009 draft, thanks to a talented staff made up mostly by underclassmen. Sophomores Chance Ruffin, Brandon Workman and Cole Green make up the weekend rotation, while freshmen Taylor Jungmann and Austin Dicharry have been chipping in relief and weekday starting roles. The most notable draft-eligible pitcher on the Longhorns’ staff is senior Austin Wood, a side-arming, soft tossing lefty that projects as a lefty specialist a la Mike Myers at the next level.
The best draft-eligible prospect from the conference this year is Missouri’s Kyle Gibson, following in the footsteps of other notable Mizzou Tigers such as Aaron Crow (once again one of the top draft-eligible pitchers for this year’s draft, who will be playing for the Fort Worth Cats of the American Association Independent League this spring after not signing as a premium first-round pick of the Nationals a year ago), and Max Scherzer, whom the playoff-aspiring Diamondbacks are counting on to become an integral member of their staff.
Gibson doesn’t have the fastball velocity of Crow or Scherzer, but he has been more successful this spring since he has more confidence in the pitch. His best pitch is his slider, one of the best single-pitches available for the 2009 draft, and that one-two punch along with his tall, angula build has drawn some Brad Lidge comparisons.
Big-bodied right-handers are in abundance this spring. From Baylor’s Kendal Volz to Nebraska’s Mike Nesseth and Oklahoma’s Garrett Richards, you could assemble an imposing basketball front-court with some of the players that are available.
Volz thrived in a relief role for Team USA last summer, and that may be where he eventually settles in. He takes his fastball from the low-90s to the mid-90s in shorter stints, and his nasty, yet inconsistent slider also seems to be more dominant when facing batters in late and close situations.
Richards too may be better suited to a relief role. His best, and almost only pitch is his fastball. It is a very difficult pitch to hit, but he struggles to command it, and gets burned when he has to take a few ticks off of it to get it over the plate. He hasn’t shown much of his offspeed offerings on a consistent enough basis to allow his fastball to become that much more effective of a pitch.
Nesseth too may become a short reliever, as his stuff, like Volz’ seems to be more explosive in shorter stints. Armed with a nasty sinker-slider combo, Nesseth doesn’t know how to throw a ball straight. He continues to struggle with command this spring, serving as both a starter and a closer for the Cornhuskers.
Baylor offers the most to the 2009 draft than any other team, and joining Volz are fellow righties Craig Fritsch, Shawn Tolleson and Willie Kempf, as well as two-way contributor Aaron Miller.
Fritsch, who like Volz has a nasty sinker-slider combination, was expected to be the team’s second-best pitcher, but he struggled early in the season, and was replaced in the weekend rotation by Kempf, who has stepped up to assume a major role for Bears, one of the top ranked teams in the nation.
Tolleson, a draft-eligible sophomore, already has Tommy John surgery on his resume, has pitched well this year. He and Fritsch now are serving more diverse, weekend and weekday roles, mostly out of the bullpen. Tolleson is build country strong with a strong lower and upper half, and throws a sharp curveball in addition to his heater.
Due to the struggles of a few members of the Bears pitching staff, left-handed pitcher and outfielder Aaron Miller, the prize of the team’s headliner 2005-06 recruiting class, has been asked to take on more responsibilities as a pitcher while also serving as the team’s cleanup hitter.
Despite picking up the loss, Miller’s most recent start against Tyler Lyons and Oklahoma State was impressive. He showed easy arm strength producing low-90s fastballs and commanding the pitch well for a player that has only appeared in six games prior to this year. His slider also projects to be a plus-pitch, but he needs the experience to gain the needed consistency. After thinking his future at the next level was as a run-producing corner-outfielder, I have to think teams are starting to consider this promising young lefty as a future pitcher.
In addition to Tyler Lyons, Oklahoma State also boasts Friday starter, fellow lefty Andrew Oliver. Oliver is built in a similar fashion to Volz, Richards and Nesseth as profiled above, with a tall and powerful build. He, unlike that trio, projects to stick as a starting pitcher. It helps that he’s a lefty, but he has excellent fastball velocity and command, and seems to get better the deeper he works into ballgames. His changeup is his second best pitch, while his breaking ball can be a good pitch if he finds a comfortable grip.
Lyons is more of a soft-tosser, sitting in the mid-to-upper 80s, although capable of reaching back for a few more ticks when used in short relief, as he was last summer joining Volz in Team USA’s bullpen. His curveball is his best and most comfortable pitch, and he also throws a changeup.
Texas A&M, like Baylor, is loaded with talent, but like Texas, some of their talent is more evenly spread between the classes.
Saturday starter Alex Wilson has a live arm and arguably the most powerful repertoire among this entire group. He red-shirted during the 2008 season after under-going Tommy John surgery, and decided to return for his junior year of eligibility at Texas A&M after the Cubs drafted him in the 10th round of last year’s draft to follow his exploits through the Cape Cod League last summer.
Friday starter and two-way talent, lefty Brooks Raley, is quickly rising up draft boards this spring thanks to a big junior year. He is leading the team in both batting and ERA among starters, getting batters out thanks to a polished three-pitch repertoire that includes a 88-91 fastball. His smooth left-handed swing tailor-made for driving balls from gap-to-gap, as he would be a perfect fit for a National League club.
Finishing up the list is Kansas State’s A.J. Morris, who is leading the conference in wins with nine (in nine starts) and is second among conference starters in ERA (1.31).
Morris, like Raley, records his outs by using a deep repertoire as opposed to blowing batters away, which isn’t to say that Morris is a soft-tosser. His fastball sits in the low-90s and he has a nice curveball that he also mixes in. He is somewhat of a newcomer to draft discussions, being somewhat of a surprise last summer pitching in the West Coast Collegiate League where his velocity increased from the mid-to-upper 80s to where it stands now. Morris’ success has helped propel Kansas State, not typically known for their baseball program, as the Wildcats are enjoying a 28-9 season and are slowly but surely convincing people that their success is indeed legitimate.
Dandy Dozen
SP |
Tyler Matzek | Polished lefty with power arsenal |
SP |
Alex White | Second best college RHP to Strasburg |
SP |
Zack Wheeler | Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB |
UT |
Brooks Raley | Smooth lefty leads A&M in ERA, BA |
C |
Luke Bailey | Baseball rat with compact build, swing |
1B |
Jonathan Singleton | Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat |
IF |
Ryan Jackson | Slick defender with questions about bat |
3B |
Jiovanni Mier | True SS with exciting tools |
SS |
Robbie Shields | 2B/3B type with promising bat |
OF |
Tim Wheeler | Exciting blend of power & speed |
OF |
LeVon Washington | Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools |
OF |
Everett Williams | Great athlete with tools galore |
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