Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft
College Notes 4-06-09
Minor starting to deal
Vanderbilt LHP Mike Minor has started to heat up during his last few outings. While his line score didn't look the best from last Friday's game against Florida (7 IP, 12 H, 5 R (4 ER), 9 K, 0 BB), his stuff and command looked a lot better than the two previous times I have seen him this spring.
Minor's fastball sat mostly in the 88-91 range, although he did touch 92 and 93 a few times in the early innings. He was still hitting 91 by the sixth and seventh innings, and consistently works at 89 miles per hour.
He was around the zone all day long with all of his pitches (as shown by 0 walks in seven innings), and showed me what enamored me to him in the past: The ability to carve up a lineup by changing speeds and using the entire strike zone. His best pitch has always been his changeup, a perfect complement to his fastball thrown with the exact same delivery and arm speed, clocking in the low-80s.
Minor also showed a good curveball this day, as his breaking pitch is the one pitch he has struggled to master over the years. He ditched a slider in favor for a curve over the last year, and while it does have very good break, his arm does slow down, tipping the pitch. Its not surprising that when he did get hit hard it was his curveball that was getting smoked, particularly the second time through the lineup.
While I hate making excuses for metal bats, I do think several of the hits against him would have been recorded as outs if the batters were swinging a wood bat. Two of the runs he allowed in the fifth inning came courtesy of a pair of infield dribblers, while two more came in the seventh on a fly ball that looked like a shallow pop-up yet carried to the warning track.
Earlier this season I wondered if Minor had lost his touch, but now that he appears to be back on track he should re-affirm his status as a mid-first round draft pick.
Freshman third baseman Jason Esposito is a name to watch the next few years. He arrived at Vanderbilt with some pretty big shoes to fill, those of Pedro Alvarez, the second overall pick in last year's draft. While he is raw and needs to work on all facets of his game, he is an exciting athlete with exciting potential. He hit a home run in Friday's game, and looked an awful lot like Ryan Braun in doing so, with a big swing and extension and a high level of cockiness in doing so (he definitely took him time to start his trot to first base to admire his handiwork).
Titans one-through-six
Cal State Fullerton and Daniel Renken squared off against Daniel Bibona and UC Irvine on Friday night. While Renken and Bibona provided a very good pitchers duel (one that Bibona won), I'm not sure if either has that great of a chance to succeed in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Renken could succeed with his big curveball alone, but topped out in the 86-88 range with his fastball. Bibona's heater was a few ticks below that, and also had a big sweeping curve. Bibona is a smaller athlete that throws across his body, so I would be a little concerned with his arm and body holding up over time.
There is some talent throughout the Titans starting lineup, from leadoff hitter Gary Brown through the number six hitter Khris Davis.
Christian Colon has the greatest upside of the group, a sophomore shortstop that resembles Rafael Furcal. He may not have Furcal's exciting tool-set, but he can make all of the plays at shortstop with good range, steady hands and a strong arm. He has some surprising pop in his bat and good, not great speed. His best trait may be his leadership qualities, as he assumed a big role for this team last year during his freshman season, and followed that up with an appearance for Team USA.
Davis is a chiseled, powerfully packed body and an exciting combination of power and speed, and is the team's best prospect available for this year's draft. He arrived at Fullerton as a potential two-way star, but now strictly plays right field. He tends to get over-aggressive with his swing, but shortens his swing and mellows that approach with two strikes. He has been an extra-base machine this spring, and entered the weekend leading the Big West in slugging percentage.
Center-fielder Josh Fellhauer is the next best pro prospect in the Titans lineup. He follows former Titan hitters such as Aaron Rowand and Shane Costa in that he has good, not great tools across the board, and while he can play center, he's probably more of a 'tweener in that he doesn't have the ideal speed to roam center, but doesn't have the projected power to play a corner spot.
First baseman Jared Clark has enough power potential, and enough arm strength to gun down runners from right field should he be returned to the outfield at the next level. His swing can get long, and I'm a little concerned about his ability to make consistent, hard contact, but when he does the ball can travel a long way.
Hitting for contact isn't a problem for sophomore third baseman Gary Brown, whose swing was made for hitting singles. He shows a very good eye at the plate, and has a very good glove at the hot corner. That may prompt a Bill Mueller comp, but he doesn't look to have much gap power, although he does have much better speed.
Freshman Nick Ramirez rounds out the top two-thirds of the Titans lineup. He has a big body that will need to focus on conditioning moving forward, but he also has a very nice approach and swing at the plate. He runs pretty well for his size, and reminded me of Nick Johnson.
I also got the chance to see Irvine closer Eric Pettis, one of the nation's best last inning stoppers. He doesn't throw gas, but commands his upper-80s fastball well, and he is fearless on the mound. He challenges hitters with both his fastball, a sweeping slider and a hard-biting curveball. I could see him becoming a solid set-up man at the next level, but he probably doesn't have closer stuff.
A&M slumpin'
Texas A&M has been having some difficulties in recent weeks, and finds themselves falling in most national polls. I tuned into the game briefly on Friday night to take a peak at left-handed starter Brooks Raley, who had been nearly perfect entering Friday's game.
While he wasn't perfect on Friday, getting knocked around early in the contest, he did settle down and show his customary stuff, which includes a good 88-90 fastball, both a slider and a curveball as well as a changeup. His best attribute is his easy arm strength, as his windup, delivery and follow-through creates one nice, easy movement.
He was also the Aggies leading hitter entering the contest, and hit a home run in the first inning. His upside is greater as a starter, as any lefty with his stuff is likely to be drafted and developed as a pitcher. He is draft-eligible this year as a sophomore, and is sneaking into early round consideration even if he doesn't throw gas. His ability to swing the bat has to make him particularly intriguing to National League ballclubs.
Dandy Dozen
SP |
Tyler Matzek | Polished lefty with power arsenal |
SP |
Alex White | Second best college RHP to Strasburg |
SP |
Zack Wheeler | Rising draft boards with impressive FB/CB |
UT |
Brooks Raley | Smooth lefty leads A&M in ERA, BA |
C |
Luke Bailey | Baseball rat with compact build, swing |
1B |
Jonathan Singleton | Powerful prep slugger with big LH bat |
IF |
Ryan Jackson | Slick defender with questions about bat |
3B |
Jiovanni Mier | True SS with exciting tools |
SS |
Robbie Shields | 2B/3B type with promising bat |
OF |
Tim Wheeler | Exciting blend of power & speed |
OF |
LeVon Washington | Blazing fast with exciting leadoff tools |
OF |
Everett Williams | Great athlete with tools galore |
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