Analyzing Amateur Baseball Talent as it pertains to the MLB Draft
Mock Draft - 2-11-11
It's still far too early to try and project how the first round is going to shake out come June, but since the draft order has been finalized I figured it was a good time to update my projection since the last one went up on the site in late October.
A few notes on the projection:
The Pirates pick first overall, but won't have another selection until the 61st, roughly two full rounds in between due to the presence of 27 supplemental first-round picks. They have been spending more aggressively in recent years, and I don't expect that to change.
The Mariners, Orioles and Royals are in a similar situation. Seattle proved two years ago not to let representation scare them off when they picked Dustin Ackley, the Orioles have dropped big money on Manny Machado and Matt Wieters in recent years and the Royals have taken high-priced draftees such as Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Aaron Crow in recent years.
For teams that have multiple first-round picks, including the Diamondbacks, Padres, Brewers, Nationals and the Rays, I tried to combine recent draft history with the likelihood of these teams needing to select a few more signage players to fit within a budget, even if they do adhere to the respective slot value.
Jackie Bradley and Josh Bell are two players I feel have the greatest chance to slip a little in the draft. I could see Bradley going as high as number five overall to the Royals at this stage, but if he doesn't I could see him falling a little since the teams between the Royals at #5 and the Red Sox at #19 have a history of shying away from pricier picks and/or Scott Boras advisees. However, don't rule out the Athletics. Bell is a candidate to receive first-round money in the sandwich (or later) round from a team like the Red Sox that have multiple picks and haven't been shy about dropping significant financial investments in their picks.
Please leave a comment below if you have any questions or thoughts on this projection of the first round.
Be sure to visit the Rankings Page to see how I have the top 100 prospects stacked up at this point in time.
For questions about the draft order, please refer to the designated Draft Order page.
1 |
Pirates | Anthony Rendon | 3B | NCAA |
2 |
Mariners | Gerrit Cole | RHP | NCAA |
3 |
Diamondbacks | Francisco Lindor | SS | High School |
4 |
Orioles | Matt Purke | LHP | NCAA |
5 |
Royals | George Springer | OF | NCAA |
6 |
Nationals | Bubba Starling | OF/RHP | High School |
7 |
Diamondbacks | Trevor Bauer | RHP | NCAA |
8 |
Indians | Taylor Jungmann | RHP | NCAA |
9 |
Cubs | Matt Barnes | RHP | NCAA |
10 |
Padres | Kolton Wong | 2B | NCAA |
11 |
Astros | Jed Bradley | LHP | NCAA |
12 |
Brewers | Daniel Norris | LHP | High School |
13 |
Mets | Sonny Gray | RHP | NCAA |
14 |
Marlins | Jose Fernandez | RHP | High School |
15 |
Brewers | Derek Fisher | OF | High School |
16 |
Dodgers | Blake Swihart | C | High School |
17 |
Angels | Archie Bradley | RHP | High School |
18 |
Athletics | Danny Hultzen | LHP | NCAA |
19 |
Red Sox | Jackie Bradley, Jr. | OF | NCAA |
20 |
Rockies | Dylan Bundy | RHP | High School |
21 |
Blue Jays | Dillon Howard | RHP | High School |
22 |
Cardinals | Jason Esposito | 3B | NCAA |
23 |
Nationals | Michael Kelly | RHP | High School |
24 |
Rays | Austin Hedges | C | High School |
25 |
Padres | Tyler Anderson | LHP | NCAA |
26 |
Red Sox | Andrew Susac | C | NCAA |
27 |
Reds | Anthony Meo | RHP | NCAA |
28 |
Braves | Austin Wood | RHP | NCAA |
29 |
Giants | Robert Stephenson | RHP | High School |
30 |
Twins | Alex Meyer | RHP | NCAA |
31 |
Rays | Johnn Stilson | RHP | NCAA |
32 |
Rays | Javier Baez | IF | High School |
33 |
Rangers | Henry Owens | LHP | High School |
Dandy Dozen
SP |
Andrew Gagnon | Well rounded RHP w/ good size, repertoire |
SP |
Erik Johnson | Big bodied RHP with good FB/CB combo |
SP |
Deshorn Lake | Live-armed RHP with sharp breaking ball |
CL |
Nick Maronde | Lived-armed LHP tough to catch up to |
C |
Nick Delmonico | May not be C long-term, big body, LH bat |
1B |
Zach Wilson | Aggressive hitter can put sting in ball |
IF |
Sean Trent | Well built hitter with pop, speed, arm |
3B |
Dante Bichette, Jr. | Clone of father with big build, power |
SS |
Austin Nola | Steady D' at shortstop, improving strength |
OF |
Nick Martini | Good all around player with patient eye |
OF |
Shon Carson | Shorter, well built 2-sport speedster |
OF |
Granden Goetzman | Fast riser w/ exciting power/speed combo |
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